If Japan had attacked the USSR, would Germany have defeated the Soviets?

[Upside-down_Turtle]

@SgtBlitz:

Moot question.  Japan DID attack the USSR TWICE in minor border flare-ups in Korea (1938) and Manchuria (1939) already before Hitler’s Operation Barbarossa was launched.  Japs got their asses handed to them by coordinated tank and infantry assaults and lack of communication between air and land forces.  After losing both times, mostly due to lack of armor on the Japanese side, they decided to pick a fight with someone they could whup up on in the ocean, the U.S. in the Pacific.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Halhin_Gol

(This is also the battle where Zhukov earned his stars and let him to become one of the top soviet generals against the Germans in '41)

If the Japs actually DID attack the Soviet Union in 1941 in measurable numbers, not sure how well they would have fared since air/naval battles were their specialty and they STILL had huge deficits in armor, compared to the Soviets.  The Reds had the best tanks in the world for the first couple years of the war, and their production capacity would have overwhelmed any newcoming designs (German Tiger/Panther production was pathetic throughout the war, the only serious contenders to the Soviet T-34s and KVs, which were unmatched in their time).  Chances are the Japs would have bogged down somewhere in Mongolia or Vladivostok and had another stalemate with superior Soviet forces holding the line, which I bet even with overwhelming Jap numbers and German attacks in the West would have held the line.

my link mentions the two battles breifly.

[Bigtiti]

@Imperious:

I think If Japan only attacked the Soviets in 41, Stalin would have to divert alot of his forces to fight and gave Germany an easier task in June. But realistically Japan could not even hope to get more than the immediate areas north of Manchukuo. Their is no way they had the resources to get to Moscow or anything like that. The loss of the Far east would have meant nothing to Stalin except that he would send reinforcements to push them back, but this was not in Japans interests because it didn’t translate into a solution for her crude oil shortage.

It was also a war aim for either the Army or Navy and took Japan away from her natural sphere of influence which was to remove all the colonial powers from Asia and dominate China. Japan was not in the war to fight for German interests and the so called “alliance” was nothing but a slip of paper describing the fact that in all likelihood they would all eventually be fighting the same enemies so by inference they are on a “team”.

but don’t forget, japan allowed US ships (with russians insignia) to pass to vladivostok, where they brought huge ammount of supplies and tanks for russia.

[Aretaku]

I think the best option the Japanese had would have been to only attack British and Dutch interests in the Pacific. Bypass the Phillipines. Yeah it causes problems, but the US probably wouldn’t intercede unless their own interests were threatened. Afterwards, they could turn their efforts towards India and an eventual linkup with the Germans in the middle east.

The carrier raid hitting Egypt instead of Pearl Harbor mentioned earlier would have been an excellent idea, if executed at an appropriate time.

[Lucifer]

If Japan and Germany started planning for an attack against the British from 1933, and then after UK was finished they went after Russia, and the Japanese could teach the Germans to make carriers, and the Germans could teach the Japanese to make tanks. Axis would need less luck to win if Russia must fight a two front war, but Japan was not prepared for such in 1939. Preparations must have started earlier.

It’s not about Japanese tanks in Moscow, it’s about making the Russians use as many forces as possible against the Japanese, and then we could have German tanks in Moscow.

[Funcioneta]

@Aretaku:

I think the best option the Japanese had would have been to only attack British and Dutch interests in the Pacific. Bypass the Phillipines

Since a time ago, I’m wondering about a possible what if. What if if Spain would gave Cuba independence before 1898? With no Spanish-USA war, it’s possible that or Philippines would receive independence before WW2 or maybe Spain still retains at starting (and also Guam and some others). Any case, it’s few probable that USA would attack a Japan that didn’t menace any USA’s interest. Without doubt, they would not fight for a far asian country without relation with USA

In case of a Spanish Philippines, there are 2 possible scenarios:

• Franco wins SCW and controls Philippines. As pro-axis country, Japan would not have any incentive attacking this. As much, we could see Spanish ships fighting Royal Navy in Pacific ocean …
• Republic wins SCW or SCW doesn’t happen. Many in that time saw Azaña’s government as pro-soviets (true or not, that’s another matter), so it’s possible that Japan still attacks Philippines if they see Spain as too pro-soviet (that could make Spain join european war as they would need UK’s or USSR’s support to fight Japan’s navy). Anyway, I doubt USA attacks Japan to support a so-called commie country when they failed to aid France and UK

The conclusion: Japan has no real incentive attacking Pearl Harbour, so no USA entry at war. This could mean a victorious Germany (horrible) or soviet flag in Paris (slightly less bad). I wonder if sinking of Maine leaded to Pearl Harbour and later to Hiroshima and Nagasaki  :-o

[Guest]

I am sure the Russians in 1980 sisn’t think they would lose a hockey game to a bunch of college hockey players from the U.S., but they did. Didn’t they? Never be too sure of what the outcome may be, that is why they play the game.

[idk_iam_swiss]

No, The back half of russia is much like Alaska, a frozen wasteland. It would take them forever to get troops north of manchuria, and supplying them would be nearly impossible. There werent any natural resource up there so the japanese had no interest in “capturing” (if you can even call it that) north russia. It would be smarter to send troops into china or inda, where the resources were.