@ShadowHAwk said in Beating J1:
Though weird, with 2dd and 2 fighters your defensive power is a lot less yet you got a higher chance of winning as japan.
That is because the US sub is surviving and killing the Japan transports in the other circumstance. You have to modify the OOL to make sure a Jap DD survives till the end to be around to kill the US sub in case it is not taken as a casualty immediately. Winning the sea/air battle but having a US sub survive to kill the 3 transports is in essence a loss for the Axis.
Not sure how @Arthur-Bomber-Harris is accounting for the Kamikazes. TripleA does not take them into account. If it were me I would use all 6; 3 on each DD and CA. However using 5 we would go 3 on the Cruiser and 2 on the DD I assume. This definitely tests my math skills but let’s give it a try:
*70% the CA is hit
*30% the CA is missed
*55% the DD also is hit when the CA is hit therefore .70 x .55 = 38.5% both hit
*70%-38.5% means only the CA is hit 31.5% of the time
*55% the DD is hit when the CA is missed therefore .3 x .55 = 16.5% only the DD is hit
*100 - 38.5 - 31.5 - 16.5 = 13.5
Thus
*38.5% both CA and DD hit
*31.5% only the CA hit
*16.5% only the DD is hit
*13.5% neither units are hit
The same battles with OOL of = US DD, CA, 2 fighters, SS vs IJN with one DD always last AND taking into consideration the above percentages for Kamikaze results. For example run the battle without the DD and CA and weight it at 38.5% then again without the CA only at 31.5% and so on for all four possible results…
1 Jap. DD + 2 Jap. fighters: 54.50% chance of USA victory
1 Jap. DD + 3 Jap. fighters: 18.98% chance of USA victory
2 Jap. DD + 2 Jap. fighters: 33.3% chance of USA victory
2 Jap. DD + 3 Jap. fighters: 9.78% chance of USA victory
As you can see the Jap defense of 3 fighters and 1 DD, with the DD taken last, is a better defense than 2 DDs and 2 fighters with one of the DDs taken last. Which makes sense because it is 4 units defending at 14 instead of 4 units defending at 12. So in essence if you are willing to accept the risk of losing your transports less than 20% of the time you can go with 1 DD and 3 fighters.