Germany Keys

[Nukchebi0]

Assumably this would be with low luck?

[Jennifer]

LL just lets you calculate exactly what amount of force to use in each battle.  There’s no fear factor.  Part of the reason this strategy works is the fear factor.  What happens if the attack goes bad?

I wouldn’t mind rerolling crazy battle results where you fall outside of three standard deviations from the norm. (upper or lower 1.15% of the results on Frood), but allowing LL gives the allies a very significant advantage.  They can just set up where they win 60% of the time on defense in every engagement and know they will almost certainly win no matter what.  Meanwhile, 60% advantage on defense can easily be lost with a slightly better than normal ADS attack round. (Same with 40% disadvantage on defense can be won by a slightly worse than normal ADS attack round.)

Nah, to make it a good test, it has to be ads with extreme results rerolled. (As defined above, extreme results are the upper or lower 2.3% of results, rounded of course.)

Heck, tell ya what, to make it closer to low luck, without getting that insane, let’s make it two standard deviations.  Easier to figure out.  So any result (by ROUND, not battle) that falls in the upper or lower 2.5% of possible results will be rerolled for something that lands in the center 95% of results.

That way you cannot say really bad dice screwed you up, but you also don’t get decades of experience lining up the minimum needed to guarantee success in attack or defense.  In other words, the fear factor will be in play.  (Challenge is pretty much open to anyone, but Bunnies has been shooting his mouth off attempting to convince us all that he has the perfect plan to counter anything Germany does if SZ 15 is left open.  Considering his plans all require England to know on England Round 1 exactly what Germany will do on Germany Round 2, I don’t think he has a prayer.)

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My point is, England is 100% defensive the instant their fleet enters the Med.  Every option he said England has for Round 2 depends on knowing what Germany will do on Round 2.  The problem is, you just won’t know what Germany will do on Round 2.

Germany Could:

1)  Build 2 Carriers and a Submarine in SZ 14 having 4 Fighters, Battleship, 2 Carriers, 2 Submarines, Transport and Egypt closed preventing escape and being too entrenched to attack.

2)  Attack the combined Allied fleets in SZ 8/12 with Battleship, Transport, Submarine 5 Fighters, 2 Bombers

3)  Unify the fleet in SZ 7/13 (notice from my map the Baltic fleet is in SZ 7 on Germany 1, giving Germany a greatly increased punch and fodder material if the allies unify in SZ 8 even if they put a carrier in the water.  If England attacks with ships and planes, then Germany can submerge unsunk submarines and have extra firepower.  If England attacks with just planes, the Germans submerge at least one submarine and hope to kill a fighter or two with the rest.)

In other words, Germany has a whole mess of options they can do.  England has none.  They set up in Russia/SZ 15 or in SZ 8 or don’t set up at all and leave their SZ 15 fleet to die at the hands of the Germans when Germany is good and ready to kill it.

[newpaintbrush]

@Cmdr:

Okay Bunnies, do you accept the challenge?

NUP!  (runs away)  :roll:

Silly rabbit.  Trix are for kids!  :lol:

Five reasons not to play:

1.  I don’t mind what my creditability is on these forums.  :?

2.  I hate AAM.  I only play TripleA.  :wink:

3.  Hey, I don’t mind if you think Germany ignoring Anglo-Egypt as you described is a good move.  You could even be right.  8-)

4.  A proper trial would have regular dice, multiple games, and supremely skilled players on both sides.  You cannot judge the validity of a strategy based on a single successful trial or a single failed trial.  I’ve got no time for a proper trial.  :cry:

5.  I pretty much described the Allied lines; UK stall in India, UK stall in Africa, UK fleet in Mediterranean.  Any interested players can hash it out.  :-)

6.  I don’t accept the degree to which the game was played out, as I am a strong proponent of the RANDOMNESS of dice (the most common single outcome when there are multiple outcomes is the most common single outcome, but when there are multiple instances of cases each with a most common single outcome, getting that most common single outcome in EVERY case is very rare.)  Properly, Germany should move, then Russia should move, then if Germany states that certain conditions were not met to attempt the leave-Anglo-Egypt alone/Med Fleet west/Channel Dash move you outlined (I note you didn’t mention a channel dash in any of the previous posts.  :roll: jenforces!) then Germany should be free NOT to carry out the move.

Yeah, that’s SIX.  Count them, SIX, mwahahahhaa.

(And I note that the Ukraine attack pulled with Russia had what Caspian Sub calls “cascade dice failure” and what I just call a 30% chance of Russia shooting itself in the ass with a possible failed Russian attack being very costly either in lost fighters or lost opportunity.

Although the scenario outlined is just a bit less favorable for the Russians than “average” with an assumed 2 tanks committed to Ukraine and 1 Russian tank surviving (actually the 50th percentile split and the mode is 2 Russian tanks surviving), Russia is still running a pretty risky attack on its first move.

And I wouldn’t buy 3 inf 3 tank with a Ukr opening anyways.  Russia places 2 inf 2 art in Cauc, 2 tanks in Moscow, sub joins UK transport and battleship (with a German bid in the Atlantic) leaves Karelia and Archangel empty, 2 Kazakh infantry to Caucasus, 2 Evenki and 2 Novosibirsk infantry to Russia, 2 Yakut infantry to Novosibirsk, 2 Burytia and 2 Soviet Far East infantry to Yakut, Russian fighters land in Russia.  This does offer Japan increased development, but plays stronger against Germany, defends London against a G1 transport build, threatens a Ukraine take and hold counter.)

[axis_roll]

I’d think that if ignoring AES on G1 was such a good German move, we’d see it a lot more often in game play.

Also, the allies can keep that sz13 BB and tpt from doing any damage if they so desire with a blocking sub or transport (jenforces!)

Can’t the allies do a hit and run into sz7?  throwing the med fleet and German air into a defensive allied navy in sz8 might win the battle but not the war.  I’d trade my entire atlantic navy (including 2 US ftrs) for the Germans to be out of africa with no airforce left.

Is a SZ8 G2 attack even possible for Germany?

Assuming a hit and run for UK1 on sz7 that does well for Germany (2 german subs hit, even 1 of the tpt or dd hits= UK BB damage, loss a tpt and plane), but sinks the tpt and DD.

let’s see
Germany 2 subs, 5 ftrs, 2 bmr on
2 tpts, sub, 2 dd, a/c, bb, 2 ftrs

I get 36% win for Germany

How does this win the war for Germany?

[Funcioneta]

I must elaborate more this, but I think this situation screams KJF

• Free med dd can flee to indian ocean for future joint with USA fleet, probably at Solomons
• Free Egypt fig can go to defend India (insert IC there)
• Indian trannie can ferry trj and egy infs to Kenya (defend Africa, saving the trannie) or to India (with this, UK can even go fancy and try taking FIC at the expense of indian trannie), your choice
• Sending indian dd to kill z59 trannie, with so many reinforcements, is no needed to protect India. So you can send to safe place and then link with Australians and USA navies. You can even get fancier and join dd and fig from egy with Indians and annoy japaneses (maybe a bit risky)
• Probably more nasty tricks are there, ready for being discovered.

So many options. Invasion of z15’s potential is irrelevant because the allies can try a lot of tricks. If even my moron FtF opponent who loves build bb’s with Germany (curiously nicknamed “Pharaoh”) invades Egypt all games, is for something.

[DarthMaximus]

I couldn’t follow a lot of the information on the previous page I’m not really sure what scenerio goes with what…

I’d agree with Axis_Roll in that if it was a good move it would be used more.  I could actually see it being valid in a PE play but that is a different story.

I don’t think it is a good idea and I don’t think “Germany’s trap” for the Sz 15 move is that great.  I’m ignoring the potential KJF possibilities but those are definitely valid.

Here are the UK units that could be is Sz 15 and where they started from:
1 trn (ind sz)
2 dd (sz 15, ind sz)
1 ac (ind)
2 ftrs (ind sz, egy)

Now in a typical Egy counter game the units will be killed as follows (give or take a few scenerios)

1 - trn (killed on J1 or G2 by air if left unprotected)
AC flees to around Safr.
2 - Sz 15 DD - (killed for nothing), Ger BB absorbs hit
2B - Ind sz DD - (killed for J trn in sz 59), Jap can counter and easily kill wol if they bring in the EI BB
3 - AC - flees to around Safr in most cases
4 - Egy ftr - (killed with inf/arm for 1-2 Ger Inf in Heavy G1 attack)
4B - Ind sz ftr - flees and can be used all game.

My point is all UK is risking by moving to Sz 15 is 1 AC and 1 ftr, all the other units are usually killed for very little value by various UK 1 moves.
And quite honestly if the AC flees it is fairly useless for about 3-4 turns since it sails around Safr, it can usually meet up with the trn/sub from Aus around rd 3 (I think) and hit sz 12 in Rd 4.
So the only unit that you get to kill that you normally wouldn’t take out on J1-G2 is the UK ftr from Ind sz.

So if I can get Germany to sack some air, buy a sub or two, or even if I just take down 2-3 higher priced German units (8-10 ipc per unit lost) I’ll seriously consider doing it. 
The reason it is a good move for UK is you are essentially playing with “free” units.  There might be better moves for this fleet, but considering the alternative of not having these units in most games then pretty much anything UK does is going to be better then the alternative of just losing them for basically nothing (Ger inf in Egy and J trn).

[Funcioneta]

Very good analysis, Darth Maximus. As you say, sz15 stack is good even in KGF because of the  the “free” units UK saves. I’ll only add that that extra inf and arm in Egy can also apply both for KGF and KJF, and they are very valuable in Africa (especially the armor, for counter-blitzing as normally german armors do).

Oh, and Germany don’t colect 2 ipcs from Egy… small but still is there…

[Jennifer]

What I am saying is that the gift to England of a free fighter and destroyer is better then the loss to Germany of the entire Africa Corps + lost units in other battles.  It’s just a matter of finances.

Top that off with England throwing those gifts away by invading the Med allowing Germany to dictate the game from that point on, and you’re just asking for trouble.  Cascade Dice Failure only applies to England in this situation.  I’ve already shown how every UK 1 move is easily countered on Germany 2 through builds, position, or combats, all of which are distinctly and decidedly in Germany’s favor.

As for Axis_Roll’s idea of hit and run in SZ 7, let’s pretend you attack SZ 7 with Battleship, 2 Fighters, Bomber, Transport (everything that can reach.)  That’s 2 or 3 hits on average.  Sure, the Germans only get 1 or 2 hits, resulting in only damaging your battleship and maybe sinking the transport.  HOWEVER, the German submarines submerge before you retreat and you are locked in SZ 7 without the option to retreat.

Now you are pulled away, the Germans can then send a fighter and submarine to your blocking transport/submarine in SZ 12 and the rest of their air power (4 fighters, 2 bombers) and the submarine(s) in SZ 7 against your battleship and anything else you put there (probably BB, AC, 2 Fig and 1 or 2 Transports).

After which, the Germans are free to pull out of SZ 12 and away from the SZ 15 fleet if they want to, or they can move to SZ 14, reinforce Libya and cut off the British after building fleet to augment their BB/TRN.

[DarthMaximus]

@Cmdr:

What I am saying is that the gift to England of a free fighter and destroyer is better then the loss to Germany of the entire Africa Corps + lost units in other battles.  It’s just a matter of finances.

Top that off with England throwing those gifts away by invading the Med allowing Germany to dictate the game from that point on, and you’re just asking for trouble.  Cascade Dice Failure only applies to England in this situation.  I’ve already shown how every UK 1 move is easily countered on Germany 2 through builds, position, or combats, all of which are distinctly and decidedly in Germany’s favor.

If you’re argument is the UK can do better than sailing into Sz 15, then fine, I’d probably agree with you.  Infact, I like Func’s idea of messing with Japan.

I’ll also say that there is a reason why I typically won’t attack the trn in Sz 59 and counter Egy regardless of what Germany takes it with.  I think you can get far more value out of your IO fleet than sacrificing it on UK 1 in various moves.  One example would be a fleet unification in Sz 30.

I don’t think Germany is all that well off if UK does sail into Sz 15.  Yes you can counter with certain moves and the Allies can counter back, but why not just eliminate that option by taking out Egy on G1 for relatively no cost (1-2 Ger inf).

Bid the units to Lib, buy your bom, and then channel dash to Sz 7.
I think that probably accomplishes the same thing only in this case you have/hold Egy and can immediately blitz armor on G2.
Heck with an 8-9 bid, bid all units to lib and save an IPC for Ger, buy 7 inf, 2 ftrs and then channel dash.  You still get Egy and threaten Sz 7 on G2 with 7 ftrs, 1 bom and any potential submerged subs that live to G2.

Even if UK does counter Egy you can take that back and Trj on G2 and you’ve just killed 3 more (4 if inf in Trj) UK ME inf.  Japan picks off the other guy in Ind and take China heavy and you can potentially be looking at a J IC on Ind in rd 2, certainly in rd 3.

[TimTheEnchanter]

@Cmdr:

As for Axis_Roll’s idea of hit and run in SZ 7, let’s pretend you attack SZ 7 with Battleship, 2 Fighters, Bomber, Transport (everything that can reach.)  That’s 2 or 3 hits on average.  Sure, the Germans only get 1 or 2 hits, resulting in only damaging your battleship and maybe sinking the transport.  HOWEVER, the German submarines submerge before you retreat and you are locked in SZ 7 without the option to retreat.

This was covered ad nauseum in the unbaltic thread.  Assuming you are playing LHTR (which, as you have argued with mazer and npb/bunnies, is the defacto house rules around here as it is used for league, tournaments, etc) , the attacker declares retreat before the subs submerge, so as long as the attacker knows enough to retreat when the defender kills off its surface ships and leaves only the subs, they won’t get caught in sz7.

[Jennifer]

Therefore, Germany keeps a submarine and a destroyer, England presses the attack, Germany submerges the Submarine and loses the destroyer they had planned to lose anyway, but at least now it gets another shot.

England is now forced out of position.