Germany Loses the Battle of France. What's next?

  • 2024 2023 '22 '21 '20 '19 '18 '17

    @xFearing:

    I had a standard battle against France: 5 infantry, 4 mech, 1 artillery, and 6 tanks (I also took Normandy with 2 infantry and 2 artillery).  I then had some of the worst rolls I’ve ever had in the game, only getting 6 hits in 3 rounds of combat and France knocked off everything I had but 2 tanks, so I retreated.  Later on I had Italy take France just so France couldn’t stack 6 infantry on the next turn.  What can Germany do with such a meager amount of income on the first turn?

    Note: I used the calculator and it turns out I had a 99.3% chance of winning that battle, and the defender had a 0.6% chance of winning.  France still had two artillery, an infantry, two tanks, and a fighter left.

    When I put this into the A&A Odds Calculator it returns a 93-94% chance for Germany to win this. And http://dskelly.com/misc/aa/index.php?page=aasim&noborder=1 estimates it at slightly below 93%. So, like others said, that’s just taking too much risk. Add those troops you sent to Normandy to the battle and your chance of losing it will be minimal.
    And besides the chances of winning the battle in the first place, there’s another sound reason for throwing all available land forces at France round 1: by bringing overwhelming odds, you’ll minimize your losses. Even if you had won in France, the losses incurred would likely have been bigger than the benefit of gaining Normandy (if there is such a benefit in the first place - there’s a viable strategy based on leaving Normandy to the French).
    I’m also surprised that, given the large number of French survivors, Italy was able to take France at all. Didn’t the UK send a few fighters to reinforce France?

    Finally, after such a disastrous G1, I would probably congratulate my opponent and propose to start a new game, except maybe if everything else went very well for compensation and consolation.

  • 2024 2023 '22 '21 '20 '19 '18 '17

    Oh, and because everybody including myself forgot so far: welcome to the forums!  :-D

  • '18 '17

    Losing the battle for France is a good learning lesson for the German player.  It should teach them that when it comes to critical, game changing battles that they should not go light on attacking forces.  Overwhelming odds are your friend early as German IMO.  It minimizes your losses and all but guarantees you win the battle.

    Sure, you may win a majority of the time by taking a minimum of forces while gobbling up a bunch of other territories as well, but when you don’t win the major battle the minors don’t matter.

  • '21 '20 '18 '17

    Welcome!

    Diverting the artillery was a misstep, you cannot come up short in this battle.  There is also one tactical bomber that can pretty much only come here.

    Since as the others say, this has to go in your favor, overkill is obligatory.  Luck has a huge roll (pun intended) to play but to counter that I’d suggest overkill in any situation where you can spare it.

  • '21 '20 '19 '18 '17 '16

    @ShadowHAwk:

    Well you just got diced hard nothing you can do against it.

    If your odds are 93% and you get totaly destroyed its not your fault.

    I disagree. If he could have made the odds better in a “must win battle” and didn’t, it IS his fault.

    Marsh

  • '16 '15 '10

    The lesson here is….why go into a battle with only 95% when you could have had 99.9%?  What does taking Normandy give that rationalizes that risk?

    If the risk of losing on the first round 5% of the time isn’t a strong enough reason, consider that Germany will almost always lose more units to take France when it goes light because the French troops will get a 2nd or 3rd round to inflict casualties.  The 2 inf 2 art 1 tact that Germany could have brought would inflict an average of 2 casualties on the French during the first round, which means France has 2 less units to shoot back on round 2.  In this case, Germany will lose an average of one more unit if the battle goes only 2 rounds.  If the battle goes to round 3 (likely with the light deployment and rare with the heavy one), this effect cascades even more and costs Germany more units.

  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    @Marshmallow:

    but again my perspective on Sea Lion is that an early Sea Lion is a losing move under most circumstances.

    Marsh

    Im glad to see that your perspective has upgraded from “always a losing move” to “a losing move under most circumstances”. :)

    I look forward to the day it evolves again to “under SOME circumstances” :)

  • '21 '20 '19 '18 '17 '16

    I’ve always felt that the late Sea Lion (after Moscow was gone and the UK was pumping everything into Egypt and ignoring the UK) was a winner :)

    Marsh

  • '17

    Didn’t this topic get debated before several times…like many stating just congratulate your opponent on “winning” the game.

    Than re-cock and switch sides. Watch with angst while your opponent brings in overkill to include the tac. bomber. When the dice are rolled, 1st round the AAA misses, but the attackers don’t! Germany wins with 2 infantry standing tall on Paris!

    You’re feeling upset about this point in the beginning of the 2nd game; especially if it’s a table top game and your preference is Axis  :-D


  • @Gargantua:

    @Marshmallow:

    but again my perspective on Sea Lion is that an early Sea Lion is a losing move under most circumstances.

    Marsh

    Im glad to see that your perspective has upgraded from �always a losing move� to �a losing move under most circumstances�. :)

    I look forward to the day it evolves again to �under SOME circumstances� :)

    :roll: :evil: :-D

    The game in Seattle was very instructive.

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