As opposed to an extra 30 ipc loss from scrambling? Yes. Even if you assume that Germany will lose 21 IPCs on the counter, then you’re breaking even NOT counting the massive UK naval losses.
Marsh
@Marshmallow:
As opposed to an extra 30 ipc loss from scrambling? Yes. Even if you assume that Germany will lose 21 IPCs on the counter, then you’re breaking even NOT counting the massive UK naval losses.
Marsh
I mentioned this up thread, but… isn’t the math:
Scramble:
Math shows those 3 planes get 3-4 more hits than not scrambling. (UK usually having 4 out of 8 units left)
Italy loses 10 ipc (fighter); 2 ipc lost opportunity (not taking Greece until I2); Germany loses 21 ipc
Don’t Scramble:
Italy gets 1, maybe 2 hits, UK has 7 out of 8 units left.
Italy loses 3-9 ipc (convoying); 5 ipc missed opportunity (lost N.O.); Germany still loses 1-2 planes in counter attack…
The issue i think is that you’re assuming Italy can get the NO. It can’t, unless the UK lets it by withdrawing from the Med.
Standard UK1 in the Med is sea zone 97 and sea zone 96. Assuming that UK has a ship left in sea zone 96, Italy does not have enough force without relying on lucky rolls (always a losing move!) to clear sea zones 93, 96, and 97 with 95%+ battles.
Even if the UK does not have a ship in sea zone 96, Italy still does not have enough to clear sea zone 93 and sea zone 97 with 95%+ battles. If you scramble to sea zone 97 on UK1, you can’t even do those two sea zones with a reasonable chance of winning.
In short, you’re counting an NO that Italy cannot realistically obtain as part of your math. Unless you get very lucky, you will not win one of the three battles you need to win for that NO. Even if you do, your losses will be devastating.
Marsh
@aequitas:
Scrambling makes sense when you can clearly change the outcome of a battle and still be operational or prevent a disaster.
The UK Fleet can be taken out by two different ways.
They are allready explained.
Either by German Luftwaffe or by Italy via amphib on Greece.So you hit the UK fleet with Italy’s, and leave the French?
If you are playing a Balanced Mod game and activating Vichy, those ships turn Neutral anyway. That has some effect on the decision here.
@aequitas:
Scrambling makes sense when you can clearly change the outcome of a battle and still be operational or prevent a disaster.
The UK Fleet can be taken out by two different ways.
They are allready explained.
Either by German Luftwaffe or by Italy via amphib on Greece.So you hit the UK fleet with Italy’s, and leave the French?
If you are playing a Balanced Mod game and activating Vichy, those ships turn Neutral anyway. That has some effect on the decision here.
YEA IF YOU ARE PLAYING BALANCE MOD THAT WOULD DEFIANTLY CHANGE THE GIST OF SCRAMBLING TO SZ97.
Anyway, if scrambling to sz97 seems to be working for you, then you should continue to do it wedsing. A couple things done G1 could help too. Like if the Germans gets lucky and knocks out the sz91 cruiser then you don’t have to worry about clearing sz96 on Italy’s turn. If Germany takes S France on G1, then the French ships in sz93 can’t run too far (2 spaces), so they are either still in the Med or in sz91 (easy targets for Germany G2). If you do scramble then you shouldn’t get convoyed, and have a better chance of taking Greece and keeping your fleet together under the scramble umbrella of Rome.
I get that many of you do play balanced mode, but aren’t these forums for Axis and Allies Global 1940? Balanced Mode is NOT Axis and Allies Global 1940.
Marsh
I still like scrambling with 2 Italian fighters and 1 German fighter. Perhaps I won’t if the UK chances are 91% or better WITH a 3 fighter scramble. When it’s less than 91%, often the UK wins the fight with a few planes left that land on Malta and nothing in SZ97 or just 1 ship. I get to that no surface warfare ships in the med much quicker and actually get to collect it for a few turns. The TUV change seems to work out overall more in the Axis’ advantage and Italy wasn’t convoyed. Either scrambling or not is about 3 Axis plans lost. I just got a whole lot more bang for my buck with that 2 hit point battleship. Not scrambling really sucks especially when Italy rolls zero hits in SZ97. Then at least 3 IF NOT 4 German planes could get shot down if you want to clear the med. Now, it’s even harder to get to that Battle Calc level where the UK is FORCED to help Russia rather than do whatever it wants to.
I don’t know how Italy really can get to other objectives with those 2 fighters when not scrambling against competent UK players. I’m just not that good to see it.
@Marshmallow:
I get that many of you do play balanced mode, but aren’t these forums for Axis and Allies Global 1940? Balanced Mode is NOT Axis and Allies Global 1940.
Marsh
I think that’s a bit like saying that a bid is a house rule and therefore not G40.
I suppose you could value the chance of getting the no ships NO from scrambling at about 1IPC (20%). Probably about right.
The bid addresses a perceived imbalance in the game. Balanced mode, on the other hand, introduces units and rules that are not in Global 1940, Europe 1940, or Pacific 1940, so it’s quite reasonable to draw a line between actual Global with a bid and balanced mode to put balanced mode into the realm of “house rules”. But hey, I can agree to disagree with you :-)
@aequitas:
Scrambling makes sense when you can clearly change the outcome of a battle and still be operational or prevent a disaster.
The UK Fleet can be taken out by two different ways.
They are allready explained.
Either by German Luftwaffe or by Italy via amphib on Greece.So you hit the UK fleet with Italy’s, and leave the French?
If you are playing a Balanced Mod game and activating Vichy, those ships turn Neutral anyway. That has some effect on the decision here.
If Italy takes proper care of the remainings in 97sz it may also hit sz93.
But the choices left for France Navy are:
Hiding in sz87 or attack 97sz wich you can now safely scramble.
The remaining ships of Fra can later be a pain in the… but on the other hand you can also block them out of the Meds. via your Kriegsmarine (TT, CR sub off Gibraltar and Gibraltar taken by Germany).
You can also finish them off on ITA 's turn with a sub and a Bmbr and still take Greece.
These are options you can consider and have nothing to do with BM or bids.
But like Marsh allready said.
To speculate the outcome of a scramble is allways Good and in favor for you is dangerous.
Most of the time all we can do is advice some options.
There is no safe Guideline wich brings you through the whole game…
@aequitas:
But like Marsh allready said.
To speculate the outcome of a scramble is allways Good and in favor for you is dangerous.Most of the time all we can do is advice some options.
There is no safe Guideline wich brings you through the whole game…
Umm, I don’t think this was me, but it’s not bad advice. Maybe it’s just paraphrased though. That being the case, I maintain that if the UK does Taranto Italy doesn’t have enough units to get the no-ships NO without getting lucky on either two or three risky battles regardless of whether or not you scramble to sea zone 97.
Marsh
Depends, my game i did not scramble and i hit well so UK had a loaded carrier left and the french fleet.
1 lucky sub 50/50 and the combat against the french with fleet and air is pretty doable.
Ugh, don’t remind me… lol.
/Shadow did this exact thing to me in our current game… carrier had both planes on it. My dumb mistake.
its too bad you only have 1 sub to hit 1 CV 2 FIG, since its too dicey to send him in alone… but you want to make those planes crash…
guess you can dream of an axis bid!
Your math is off, Shadowhawk. We all know from vast number of games that if you own the sub, your chance of hitting the carrier is zero. If you own the carrier, kiss it goodbye because it is going down to the bottom of the Med. Probability and statistics get overruled by the dice gods.
its too bad you only have 1 sub to hit 1 CV 2 FIG, since its too dicey to send him in alone… but you want to make those planes crash…
guess you can dream of an axis bid!
You don’t have anything better to do with the sub. If you lose, the Luftwaffe hits the CV. But what idiot loses the DD and Cruiser before either of the planes that came from London? Or puts an extra plane on the CV which could make land? Something isn’t right if you’re getting this outcome.
its too bad you only have 1 sub to hit 1 CV 2 FIG, since its too dicey to send him in alone… but you want to make those planes crash…
guess you can dream of an axis bid!
You don’t have anything better to do with the sub. If you lose, the Luftwaffe hits the CV. But what idiot loses the DD and Cruiser before either of the planes that came from London? Or puts an extra plane on the CV which could make land? Something isn’t right if you’re getting this outcome.
Maybe an “idiot” who would rather roll for defense against the Luftwaffe at a 4 rather than a 2 or 3. Maybe an “idiot” who simply didn’t see that sub move coming. It’s all dead anyway.
But yes, definitely land your planes somewhere else if possible.
I agree with a post that Mashmallow posted earlier, there is no guarantee that you are going to get that NO for a clear med, you should not even rely on that one. The Italians have so many uses, on the ground, with actual IPC earning territory’s that those planes can be used for, you need to weigh out their impact in the med versus potentially taking Egypt, steam rolling Greece, building an actually strong can-opener force in Russia, and even Protecting Rome.
The last few games that I have played, when I am the Axis, I get my Italian partner to seriously evaluate the Taranto raid force. If it is the max force possible, and the UK is totally on point, I say scrap the scramble, focus on more attainable objectives. As a German player, I sure as hell don’t want to burn the Luftwaffe on an air vs naval clean up battle G2, where I can lose guaranteed safe hits against Russian ground troops once Barbarossa commences. On the other hand, If the UK doesn’t bring the max force down, or they don’t make a move to middle east with SA and India navies / units, and Italy looks like they might have some time to maneuver for a few rounds, then scramble all the way. I have seen games were Italy won the Taranto raid, and from then on became unstoppable in the Med, which in turn leads to Germany being able to achieve their full potential, and results in an Axis victory.
Italy unfortunately has to play the game, or at least start the game, being completely on board to support the Germans in whichever direction they plan to strike. A strong Afrika campaign with Italian air power can lead to Italy generating sufficient IPCs to gain a bit more control over their destiny. A successful Italian campaign in the middle East, or as a can-opener can have the same impact. Italy with zero navy, and zero air force, means they might as well stockpile Rome and prepare to defend Europe, there will be no expeditionary force.
