@kaleu great that you posted this . He was, indeed, a remarkable man. Not loved much by the English back then!
Dow grows 1300 in 8 years
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Actually Jen the time frame was simply drawn from the previous “market high” before the declines of 2000, 2001 and 2002 (which crosses 2 Administrations).
It is politically neutral in the time frame selection.
Next attempt to force PD into this discussion will result in all posts of the individual so doing being deleted from the thread
(I am attempting to let a serious economic discussion proceed while avoiding PD. Some of you are NOT helping that happen.)This thread will NOT be a Clinton/Bush bash fest!
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as NCs pointed out, this was rntirely nonpolitical. 1999 happened to be the peak of a bull market.
I see $4 a gallon gas in our future. this will create an oppurtunity for detroit to roll out electric cars (which were piloted succesfully in 2000), but they’ll squander the opurtiunty and the japanese will gain more market share.
NCS, part of the instability of the dollar goes back to the record trade defciits we’ve been running lately. a country that is selling off its manufacturing base, as weve been doing for years, isnt a good investment. a weak dollar makes our exports cheaper, but what the hell do we export anymore?
housing, gas prices, stagnant incomes, flat stock market, falling dolar, and loss of manufacturing. Our consumer-driven ecnomy isnt resilient enough to deal withj all that. i think we’ll be lucky to get out of this with jusyt a recession.
lets look at a typical commuter family:
Income $60,000 (quite a bit above median incoem) a year
Gas at $3.50
miles travelled per day, entire family: 150 (75 miles round trip really isn’t much of a commute anyremo)
around 240 working days in a year.
average of 25 MPG for family cars.
Total miles driven JUST FOR WRK: 36,000
1440 gallons.
$5000summary: just driving to work and back for a typical family with tipical cars costs almost 10% of their income. If theyre at median income level, its over 10%. nevermind the miles they drive outside of work. just work alone.
the savings rate is negative. Families have an average credit card debt of $8500. health care continues to increase.
i don’t see how the averge american family can weather falling home prices, record foreclosures, and record gas prices. theyre gonna cut back on spending and that is what drivs the economy.,
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jen, how do you “end” social programs? you dont just GET medicare. you pay into it for at least 10 years (most people pay medicare tax their entire working years). Social securyt is the same. so just “screw you” to the people who ahve paid into it for 29 years and are set to retire? talk about entitlement theft!
I can see a phased elimination, but benfits to retirees are paid for by taxes on workig people, so how do you gradually phase it out? you dont. get used to S.S. and medicare. they’re not going anywhere. AARP is too strong, old people vote. a lot.
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You end social programs by legislating them out. You’re “paying” into the program is really just a tax. You do not build up any equity in the program, there’s no account number where a bureaucrat can sit there and say “Well, Mr. Smith, you paid in $10,000 over 10 years at 3% interest per annum that works out to $12,485.84 in total life time benefits.”
So it should be a relatively simple thing to just suspend the programs for the good of the nation. Just declare a national emergency for fiscal responsiveness (trying to find non-politically charged words, so excuse the use of words that do not fit 100% into the slots. Double standards are fun!)
Anyway, it’s my, and many economist’s, opinion that the current downturn actually started in 1994, 1995 and 1996 with governmental and business practices leading up to events like the 2000 election fiasco, the dot-com bust, WorldCom, Arther Anderson, Enron and other businesses having to completely over haul their records to accurately portray their assets instead of the shell game that became the standard in the mid 90’s. (Not a slam on any politician in particular, just a statement of fact that in the mid 90s big businesses began a shell game where debts were off loaded to companies they then had declare bankruptcy to keep the assets of the company looking better then they actually were, more solvent.)
Then, since everything was riding these three clouds of smoke: The dot-com businesses who had no tangable assets to pay their debts, the Shell Game of big business (assisted by the Arther Andersan Financial Firm) and the Y2K scam and scammers when the smoke began to clear, the market started to correct. This correction which would have eased sooner, say probably 2002, was compounded by 9/11 which took the recovery process and knocked it out again.
The market really started recovering in 2003ish. But if you look over the life of the market, you’d get a pretty good picture of things, instead of looking at the micro-scale of just the past decade and a half (1994-2007.)
The DOW Jones started in 1884. That means it has been around for 123 years. The current close is 13,042. 13,042 divided evenly between 123 years is 106 points a year, on average.
In 2003, when I am claiming recovery began to occur after the business practices and events of the mid 90’s compounded by political and religious events of the late 90’s early Aughts (1999-2001 specifically) we began to see abnormally high rates of return for the DOW Jones. From the high of 2003 to the high of 2007 we have seen a growth of 4,138.37 points.
December 11, 2003 DOW Closes for the first time over 10,000 at 10,008.16
October 9, 2007 DOW Closes at 14,164.53 for an all time high.In 4 years we have seen an increase of 71% growth or an average of not 123 points per annum but 1034.59 points per annum! That’s more then 10 times the growth as the life time average of the DJIA!
As for Gasoline, I think we’ll see $6.00 at the pumps if we don’t do something about the lunatic fringe groups in this nation. We need to drill in Alaska and Mexico. Other nations are drilling there and it’s our oil! We NEED to build refineries, EPA standards be damned, who cares how clean the air is if we all starve to death or freeze to death because there’s no oil to use to ship the products or heat the homes?
Look, the Sierra Group and Green Peace and the rest do a service. They make us aware of the damage we are doing. But there is legislation from the Nixon Administration that forces us to account for the damage we are doing and take it into consideration as it is. So we really don’t need Sierra or Green Peace and their sister organizations since it’s mandated by law that we do an ecological impact survey before we engage in any activity as it is. (Not getting into the politics of the man, just making a relevant point about the repetitiveness of the organizations considering we already have laws on the books covering it.)
Sometimes the needs of the many really do out weigh the needs of the few. It’s a shame and I feel sorry for the few who get shafted, but I think the lives and livelihood of men exceeds the livelihood of brown striped darter snails.
Get some refineries going, get our own drilling teams out there (remember, America used to be the number one EXPORTER of oil which is really how we made money in the 40s, 50s and 60s, it wasn’t refrigerators and cars, it was oil and steel exports!) to drill and repeal some taxes.
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how can it not be a political thread?
smaktard is just like that laq. glib guy who came on only for politics. they never play games. havent you heard about the democratic grassroots losers who go to forums (any forum) and try to sway the electorate. smaktard is just another one. just as glib was when i called him out on it.
you can usually find these people out.
1. we have an avatar of the republican god reagan.
2. the user of said avatar does not espouse any conservative values on threads and never has. actually they have been the opposite.
3. the war in iraq isnt a viable running stategy for the dems. they have let the pundits and grassroots people know this, now they are trying to run the old “its the economy stupid” that worked for clinton 1.
so to surmise, this whole thread is trying to lay fault for mishaps at someones feet. (bush administration) but thats the unsaid part. usually it means politics when someone gives a little “hey no politics, but lets get into a political debate” at the beginning.
this guy is just trying to be smooth about the no politics and just economical aside. but they are all the same. losers who work (paid or unpaid) for some democratic get out the vote program. just as that glib guy was.
think to the past. when has smaktard ever come on to talk about non political subjects. never, when we had PD, he was never on GD, or on a game post. thats not his perogitive.
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Balung, get with the game man, there’s this whole double standard thing.
Anyway, it is weird that someone only talks in PD/GD and never in games or in game forums. Hence why he has no Bad Karma, no threads of his to give him bad karma! (Karma isn’t working in the GD for some reason.)
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the only ones talking politics are you two. I was a proud Reagn republican (pro life) who voted for bush in 2000. but thats neither here nor there., this is an econ discussion.
please dont lock my thread because of people who cant seperate poltics and economics. just delete their replies or somethng.
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I’m not talking politics, never was. Some people, they know who they are, automatically assumed my statements were political when they were just a listing of forces impacting the economy of the nation.
But just because they cannot get their heads on right doesn’t mean I was talking politics. Just means they are too small minded to comprehend that not everything said revolves around them and their skewed look at the world.
Anyway, no one has debunked any of the theories I’ve put forward on the economy, that must mean you all agree with them.
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@Cmdr:
Especially considering that the original poster most clearly wanted this to be a political slam against the current administration given his time frame, which he probably forgot actually hits the last TWO administrations. :P
I’m not talking politics, never was.
please leave my thread. you contradct yourself, have nthing useful add and hve the colosal ego to assume that everyone who ignores you agrees with you.
sometimes its just not worth the time.
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@Cmdr:
Especially considering that the original poster most clearly wanted this to be a political slam against the current administration given his time frame, which he probably forgot actually hits the last TWO administrations. :P
I’m not talking politics, never was.
please leave my thread. you contradct yourself, have nthing useful add and hve the colosal ego to assume that everyone who ignores you agrees with you.
sometimes its just not worth the time.
It is not a contradiction to point out that you were attempting to make a political statement and that I never was, dear.
And I’ve made about a dozen relevant and salient points about the actual discussion. No one has countered them, so I have to assume that people agree. One does not normally post a rebuttal when one agrees with what is said.
Oh, and use the spell check dear. You’re undermining your credibility when you misspell easy words like contradict and nothing when the browser highlights them for you.
And, for the record, your header is erroneous. The DJIA grew over 4000 points in 4 years. Unless you purposely chose a time frame to put the worst possible spin on that you could think of. In which case, you may want to say that in 126 years the DOW has barely averaged 120-125 points per annum in growth! What a huge depression we are in!!!
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@Cmdr:
BTW, that’s 8131 in 2003 to 13043 in 2007. 5000 points in 4 years or just over 1000 a year. I’d prefer 1000 a month, but to be realistic, the DOW’s been around longer then the Progressive Era and it’s ONLY gotten to 14,000 max. That’s 110 years abouts or 127 points a year on average. So I guess 1000 points per annum isn’t so bad after all.
I’d rather have a 100 piont increae in a 500 piont stock market than a 1000 piont growth in a 10000 piont market.
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@Cmdr:
BTW, that’s 8131 in 2003 to 13043 in 2007. 5000 points in 4 years or just over 1000 a year. I’d prefer 1000 a month, but to be realistic, the DOW’s been around longer then the Progressive Era and it’s ONLY gotten to 14,000 max. That’s 110 years abouts or 127 points a year on average. So I guess 1000 points per annum isn’t so bad after all.
I’d rather have a 100 piont increae in a 500 piont stock market than a 1000 piont growth in a 10000 piont market.
Yes, but since none of us are 120 years old, none of us had that chance.
I’d also like to point out that the Great Depression and Black Monday was only a mere couple/few hundred points that dropped. We saw larger on days after the election of 2000, on the days around 9/11 (trading was frozen for a time, or we may have seen a few thousand points drop ON 9/11), and in various other politically, economically, and blue moonish days throughout history.
Playing the market is a gamble. I happen to make money in both bull markets and bear markets because I know how to invest. Some people do not so they lose everything when they make bad decisions. So what? Every American is a Have, there are no Have Not Americans. Even if you lose it all in the Market, you can still get a job and build it all back up. That’s what makes it great to be in this country!
BTW, my personal best week was last week. I made 27% on my investments and the market dropped like 1000 points.
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Tell that to the people on wellfaer. also tell that to the people who jumped out of skyscrapers on black monday. America does have “have-nots”
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Tell that to the people on wellfaer. also tell that to the people who jumped out of skyscrapers on black monday. America does have “have-nots”
People may assume they are have nots. But they are not. All citizens have the same rights and laws. All citizens have the opportunity to pursue happiness, some of us fail abysmally at achieving happiness, and some of us give up. But that does not mean they are have nots. It just means they gave up or have not learned the skills.
I work with classes with middle class kids and lower class kids and I’m telling you, they’re kids. Some of them develop the right skills, and some do not. But that doesn’t mean some are haves and some are have nots. All are haves. They are all equal to each other in value as human beings.
As for suicide, rich people and poor people commit suicide. So that is not a very good indicator of haves and have nots.
I guess one could argue that a convicted felon in jail is a have not. But that’s not because s/he started as a have not but rather made poor choices and learned poor skills resulting in society removing their have status for a period of time as punishment.
In summary, all Americans are Haves. There are no Americans who are Have Nots. If you think you are a have not, talk to someone you think is a have and learn what they learned to become what YOU consider a have.
You think I was born knowing how to invest in bull and bear markets? Shoot son, I was born in Russia, we had never HAD stock markets! I didn’t learn it in school, I didn’t learn it from mom and dad. I saw people I thought had more Havingness then I did and asked them to teach me. I want more havingness, but I am a have. Everyone is a HAVE!
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That was beautiful Jen…
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@Bean:
That was beautiful Jen…
At the risk of finding out, beautiful good or beautiful bad? (In your individual opinion. :P In my individual opinion I think I summed up the entire American culture, spirit and way of life.)
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why do we need social programs and chiarites then? its a lot harder to be a have if you grew up in teh projects and never owned a dollar untill you were 18 than if your father is bill gates. nay way i think we have defierant defintions of haves and have nots. my definstion are those that do not have. as in they are poo, destitute without the ability to feed and warmth there family.
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Beautiful good. :-)
If I were being sarcastic I would make a point of not being misinterpreted.
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why do we need social programs and chiarites then? its a lot harder to be a have if you grew up in teh projects and never owned a dollar untill you were 18 than if your father is bill gates. nay way i think we have defierant defintions of haves and have nots. my definstion are those that do not have. as in they are poo, destitute without the ability to feed and warmth there family.
Oh yea, it was so peachy growing up in the slums of communist Russia. I just had everything given to me on a silver spoon. Sorry, I forgot that part of my life….you know, the part where I was given everything including a free download of information right into my skull so I wouldn’t have to learn anything.
We don’t NEED social programs. I’d even argue that social programs do more to KEEP people from achieving more havingness then anything else.
Lineage also has no bearing. John Rockefeller became someone with exceedingly strong havingness despite growing up in the slums. So did many people. This entire nation was built by people who thought they were have nots and attempted to become haves. There was no social programs for them, there were charities, they were called Church. They lived in their version of the projects (a backwater colony exceedingly far from civilization inhabited by murderous natives (or so they thought.))
America has no have nots, even by your definition. Even if you are completely without physical possessions in this nation, you have your life and the skills you learned during it. You have the ability to go to a shelter to go to a soup kitchen to go to a free medical clinic. Your have nots live like kings compared to the have nots of other countries, my friend. There were no free medical clinics in Kiev with good doctors in them like here. Not while I lived there! The GOOD doctors (aka the ones who didn’t try to rape or molest you each visit and actually owned a medical book, maybe even read it once or twice) all worked for the politicians/police/military. Though, every home was a soup kitchen, we couldn’t afford anything BUT SOUP. I hate friggin soup!
You know your poor in this nation average two color television sets and a car! Your POOR! The low lifes, the ones you are telling me are have nots. They have televisions and cars! I lived on a flat with three other families and our television was ourselves acting out plays in the dirt and kicking the bugs around. Don’t even tell me about how bad Americans have it. It will fall on deaf ears here. I’ve seen more trials and tribulations then most Americans can even think about. And what’s worse, there are countries that thought I lived like a queen because once a week I got 4 ounces of meat as my allotment from the government.
All Americans are Haves. There are no Americans that are have nots. None. Not a single one. The mentally insane guy in the sanatorium with no family who thinks bugs are trying to eat his testicles but has American citizenship is a Have. Why? Because he has citizenship, that means he owns the government in part. That means he has someone in office looking out for him. He has a medical system of trained doctors and nurses who provide nourishment and shelter every day of every week until he dies. It may not be the best shelter and nourishment, but he still HAS it making him a HAVE, not a have not.
@Bean:
Beautiful good. :-)
If I were being sarcastic I would make a point of not being misinterpreted.
Then I thank you. :) Just with the bickering in another thread tween us, I wanted clarification. No offense intended.
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people make terrible decisions in life cyan. you can choose in highschool to take mass amounts of drugs, get horrible grades, not get accepted to a college, continue to take drugs, and not be able to hold a job. then you need welfare. at least half of the people on welfare have only themselves to blame for their problems.
and if you grow up in the projects, who’s to keep you from getting a job. find one at the Mcdonalds, its a start. then take highschool SERIOUSLY and get out of the projects by going to college. then never come back to the projects. just b/c people dont this, there’s not someone/something to blame. only themselves.
trust me, at my age of 22, i know i could have done my highschool and college a lot differently. like actually play rugby and such. i just never got around to it. i could of joined a frat, boned a lot of sorority girls, just b/c that didnt happen doesnt mean there is anyone to blame.
jen is saying all americans are haves b/c ALL americans have the same OPPORTUNITY. sadly and truly, many squander theirs.
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