German Naval Build Round 1

[Lucifer]

@axis_roll:

Let’s ask THESE QUESTIONs then

What are the axis odds of winning with $8 bid?
Greater than 42%?

~OR~

Germany has a 42% chance of taking out Moscow…. do you go for it?

Odds for sealion G1 is never higher than 33%. Without kamikaze.

If G has 42% with one land unit remaining, it depends on how much ipc Russia got. If Russia got 28-30 I probably
go for it, even if UK or Russia can take it back. Not with low luck though.
With G or J I would not attack with 42% if I knew for sure that next rnd I place more attacking power than allies
could reinforce Russia with.

[axis_roll]

@Lucifer:

In my previous post I stated that sealion for G is about 33%. With 1 trans in Baltic.

HELLO?!

Have you been reading my posts?

I was discussing a bid of a tpt in the baltic.

this mean 2 more units into UK, which means 42% instead of 33%

[Lucifer]

With 2 trans total G1, G has 31%-34% odds for sealion success with reg dice.
If G places bid somewhere else, then it’s 4% with only the original trans in Baltic.

So 2 inf + 2 tanks + 2 ftrs + 1 bmr. have about 33% in Germans favour for sealion rnd 1.

All my these mumbers are according to the tripleA battlecalc, which is usually pretty accurate.
That is when predicting outcomes statistically, 5000 rolls.
So in one battle, with few units, and sealion G1 is few units, then this is hazardous for both sides.

[Jennifer]

I show a 35% chance to survive a G1 sea lion (1 trn bid to SZ 5) vs 40% chance to clear England if you consider the AA Gun.

If the AA Gun misses entirely, which is very plausible, that changes to 49% chance to survive the battle and 45% chance to clear England.

That’s 50/50 at the cost of what?  2 Fighters and a Bomber?  Whoopie!  No English forces invading Africa which means no Americans invading Africa.  That means Germany can easily get up over 50 IPC production in rapid order and replace the piddly little 2 fighters and a bomber in a single round of purchases when it is convenient to do so.

[Lucifer]

As UK or any other allie power, I wouldn’t worry if sealion failes, that is G don’t take London.
If G actually captures London then it’s game over for allies.

Sealion G1 in detail with 1 trans bid in Baltic.

2 inf +2 tanks + 2 ftrs + 1 bmr. vs 2 inf, 1 tank, 1 art, 2 ftrs, 1 bmr.
AA fires first, if any planes are hit then G won’t take London.
If no AA hits, then this is about 45%-49% for G capturing UK.

G would get 3 hits statistically, UK would get also get 3 hits in first wave of attack.
Now we’re left with G: 1 tank, 2 ftrs, 1 bmr. UK: 1 art, 1 tank, 2 ftrs.

Second wave of combat. average dice rolls means G get 2 hits, last dice on one does not hit.
UK hits also with 2, the last dice on misses.

3rd. wave of combat. G left with 1 tank + bmr. UK got 2 ftrs.

As you can see, G need very much luck to pull this off, and if it fails, then this is a clear setback for Germany.
I would not be too worried about the rest of the game as playing UK.
No AA hits is not very plausible, it’s precisely 50% plausible.
With LHTR you cannot attack capital with land units during first rnd.
But dice can let you down anytime anywhere in this game.

If Germany walks away with Bank of England then I’m sure this is over.
Not even dice gods can save allies if Germany succeds with the sealion attempt.

[axis_roll]

@Lucifer:

With LHTR you cannot attack capital with land units during first rnd.

where do you see this in LHTR?

I am fairly certain (99.9%) that there is no such rule in LHTR.

[Romulus]

I was asking the same thing, wondering if I am missing some paragraph!

[Jennifer]

I’d heard the rule, but never seen it.  Never really looked for it though.

[Lucifer]

I just read quickly through the LHTR 2.0, and I was confusing this with the tripleA ladder rules  :|

So we can do sealion on G1.
But as I said before, I’m not worried about losing UK rnd 1.
And if this was a good opportunity to win a game, then why would I not see it more often in the tripleA lobby?
You can get lucky and unlucky anytime in A&A, but sealion G1 with 33% is not a good move for axis.

[Romulus]

@Lucifer:

I just read quickly through the LHTR 2.0, and I was confusing this with the tripleA ladder rules  :|

So we can do sealion on G1.
But as I said before, I’m not worried about losing UK rnd 1.
And if this was a good opportunity to win a game, then why would I not see it more often in the tripleA lobby?
You can get lucky and unlucky anytime in A&A, but sealion G1 with 33% is not a good move for axis.

Ok! But I will re-read LHTR again to look for any missing thing!

In my playgroup we only play face to face on the real board.
My point of view is: Germany want to bid a TRN in baltic to attempt Sealion?
Ok, let’s what happens.
If German conquer London, Allies surrenders, then all togheter we slap the German player and force him to setup the game again and re-start!
If German lose, we ask if he want to continue… and slap him anyway!

:)

It means: we want to play so do not bother us with strategy that reduce the game to a single roll of dices. If we want to use only dice we play Risk or Yahtzee!

I imagine that on TripleA lobby they think the same! (unfortunately tehy can not slap the German player…)

:-D

[axis_roll]

@Lucifer:

And if this was a good opportunity to win a game, then why would I not see it more often in the tripleA lobby?

Because the bid in Triple A is 9, not 8.  3 units is far superior to a tpt in the baltic.

[Lucifer]

TripleA ladder rules states 9 bid for axis, you can only place one unit at a territory.
And no attacks on capital rnd 1 with ground units. And a few other rules which is not so important.
Most ppl in the lobby does not play with strict ladder rules and 9 bid set pre game.

I agree that with 1 trans bid for G and sealion attempt rnd 1 is not a good game.
The winners or losers are decided by dicerolls before first turn is finished.
Although A&A is a dicegame which often is decided by luck, but not this early in the game.
So Romulus, you play with lowluck?

I started playing lowluck with the classic boardgame over 15 years ago.
Low luck should be OOB rules or with the LHTR 2.1 ruleset.

[Guest]

I would imagine the main reason for the FIDA bid system is to preclude a bid of 1 TRN to SZ5 to prevent the 1 in 3 chance of the Axis winning on Round 1.

[DarthMaximus]

It is not really an issue since Russia can land up to 2 ftrs on London before G goes.
Any Allied player that sees a bid of 1 trn to sz 5 and does not land at least 1 Russian ftr on London is asking to get diced by Germany.

London should have at least:  2 inf, 1 rt, 1 arm, 3 ftrs, 1 bom
(bom can even be taken in the first wave of casualties)

With no aa hits for Ger, UK wins about 80% here.

With 4 ftrs, it is up to about 95%.