German Naval Build Round 1

[Guest]

I dislike setting up my board to have the game determined by a dice roll on G1 that has a 38% chance of clearing London

[axis_roll]

@ncscswitch:

I dislike setting up my board to have the game determined by a dice roll on G1 that has a 38% chance of clearing London

OK

What are you talking about?
Please put into context.

[Lucifer]

@ncscswitch:

I dislike setting up my board to have the game determined by a dice roll on G1 that has a 38% chance of clearing London

It’s 16% for sealion victory with lowluck.
32% with reg dice.

[Lucifer]

If the AA gun doesn’t get any hits, it’s 32% with lowluck, and 45%-46% with reg dice….    :mrgreen:
How bout some short games???  :-D :lol: 8-)

[Guest]

And if you lose the gamble, you end up with Germany pretty much toast.

[Jennifer]

Not to mention America’s gunna liberate England and Geramny’s still pretty much toast.

[Lucifer]

If Germany fails in sealion, then Germany is dead. Usually, and granted that G got all ftrs killed in the attempt.
But if Germany takes london and 30 ipc from UK, then there’s no hope for allies.

We might start a discussion on weather allies can recover, even when US can recapture London.
I don’t think 1 out 10 times is an interesting debate. Maybe the number is 1 out of 50 times, that allies can win if sealion succeds.

1. G gets 30 ipc, + 8 for London.
2. UK cant buy for one turn. UK lose 2 rnds because if this.
3. Nearly all UK ground units in Northern Europe are killed. 
4. US lose 1 rnd in Europe to take back London.
5. Depending on how big fleet G has, either with sealion G1 or G2, US+UK needs to stack London
  to prevent two sealion’s in the same game…. 
6. Fill in plz.

I really don’t se the problem if G place an 8 bid trans in Baltic.
If G attempts sealion, then you win about 70% of the those games.
That is if sealion G1. G2, that’s another story.

[axis_roll]

@Lucifer:

If G attempts sealion, then you win about 70% of the those games.
That is if sealion G1. G2, that’s another story.

My dice sim says 42% chance of taking UK.

And I don’t think Germany is TOAST if they fail on a sea lion G1

What have they lost if they fail?

Germany trades 2 inf, 2 tanks for 2 inf, art, tank
They traded 2 ftrs and a bomber for 2 ftrs and a bomber

If things go really bad, they can always w/d and save a plane or two or three….

You people are pretty cavalier about losing your capital.
Capital loss is punished pretty hard in A&A (some say too hard)

We should discuss (perhaps another thread) G1 Sea lion …
what happens if it fails
what happens if it succeeds.

As Germany, depending on how well/poorly Russia did attacking Germany, I would/would not attack London.

[axis_roll]

Let’s ask THESE QUESTIONs then

What are the axis odds of winning with $8 bid?
Greater than 42%?

~OR~

Germany has a 42% chance of taking out Moscow…. do you go for it?

[Lucifer]

In my previous post I stated that sealion for G is about 33%. With 1 trans in Baltic.
If G rolls bad dice first phase and retreat planes, then this might not be a turning point in the game.
But if it fails totally and G loses all 3 planes then this is a big setback for G, because of Russia and Africa + +.
A failed sealion G1 is not nessecarely lost game for axis, but a big setback.
Failed sealion G2 then it’s game over. But that’s another discussion.

This is sealion scenario G1 for Germany, with TripleA battlecalc which is not always 100% correct.
With reg dice it is 32%-34%, also with “one attacking land must live”.
First phase is AA fire. 2 ftrs 1 bmr means 50% one plane shot down.
If no planes are hit, then it’s 44%-46%, also with “one attacking land must live”.
If AA hits one ftr, then it’s about 18%, also with “one attacking land must live”.
Remember that if bc says 1%, this is not always true in reality, if 5-10-500 defending units
should be remaining. But with reg dice nothing is 100% impossible.

[Lucifer]

Sealion G1 with lowluck, G place 1 trans in Baltic.

It’s 15%-16% for sealion success, also with “one attacking land must live”.
If no AA hits, then it’s 31%-33%, also with “one attacking land must live”.

[Lucifer]

Sealion G1, G place 1 trans in Baltic. Reg dice.
Kamikaze scenario!

G have 85% with 3.8 units left, also with “one attacking land must live”.

Same with lowluck:

G have 100% with 4,1 units left.

[Lucifer]

@axis_roll:

Let’s ask THESE QUESTIONs then

What are the axis odds of winning with $8 bid?
Greater than 42%?

~OR~

Germany has a 42% chance of taking out Moscow…. do you go for it?

Odds for sealion G1 is never higher than 33%. Without kamikaze.

If G has 42% with one land unit remaining, it depends on how much ipc Russia got. If Russia got 28-30 I probably
go for it, even if UK or Russia can take it back. Not with low luck though.
With G or J I would not attack with 42% if I knew for sure that next rnd I place more attacking power than allies
could reinforce Russia with.

[axis_roll]

@Lucifer:

In my previous post I stated that sealion for G is about 33%. With 1 trans in Baltic.

HELLO?!

Have you been reading my posts?

I was discussing a bid of a tpt in the baltic.

this mean 2 more units into UK, which means 42% instead of 33%

[Lucifer]

With 2 trans total G1, G has 31%-34% odds for sealion success with reg dice.
If G places bid somewhere else, then it’s 4% with only the original trans in Baltic.

So 2 inf + 2 tanks + 2 ftrs + 1 bmr. have about 33% in Germans favour for sealion rnd 1.

All my these mumbers are according to the tripleA battlecalc, which is usually pretty accurate.
That is when predicting outcomes statistically, 5000 rolls.
So in one battle, with few units, and sealion G1 is few units, then this is hazardous for both sides.

[Jennifer]

I show a 35% chance to survive a G1 sea lion (1 trn bid to SZ 5) vs 40% chance to clear England if you consider the AA Gun.

If the AA Gun misses entirely, which is very plausible, that changes to 49% chance to survive the battle and 45% chance to clear England.

That’s 50/50 at the cost of what?  2 Fighters and a Bomber?  Whoopie!  No English forces invading Africa which means no Americans invading Africa.  That means Germany can easily get up over 50 IPC production in rapid order and replace the piddly little 2 fighters and a bomber in a single round of purchases when it is convenient to do so.

[Lucifer]

As UK or any other allie power, I wouldn’t worry if sealion failes, that is G don’t take London.
If G actually captures London then it’s game over for allies.

Sealion G1 in detail with 1 trans bid in Baltic.

2 inf +2 tanks + 2 ftrs + 1 bmr. vs 2 inf, 1 tank, 1 art, 2 ftrs, 1 bmr.
AA fires first, if any planes are hit then G won’t take London.
If no AA hits, then this is about 45%-49% for G capturing UK.

G would get 3 hits statistically, UK would get also get 3 hits in first wave of attack.
Now we’re left with G: 1 tank, 2 ftrs, 1 bmr. UK: 1 art, 1 tank, 2 ftrs.

Second wave of combat. average dice rolls means G get 2 hits, last dice on one does not hit.
UK hits also with 2, the last dice on misses.

3rd. wave of combat. G left with 1 tank + bmr. UK got 2 ftrs.

As you can see, G need very much luck to pull this off, and if it fails, then this is a clear setback for Germany.
I would not be too worried about the rest of the game as playing UK.
No AA hits is not very plausible, it’s precisely 50% plausible.
With LHTR you cannot attack capital with land units during first rnd.
But dice can let you down anytime anywhere in this game.

If Germany walks away with Bank of England then I’m sure this is over.
Not even dice gods can save allies if Germany succeds with the sealion attempt.

[axis_roll]

@Lucifer:

With LHTR you cannot attack capital with land units during first rnd.

where do you see this in LHTR?

I am fairly certain (99.9%) that there is no such rule in LHTR.

[Romulus]

I was asking the same thing, wondering if I am missing some paragraph!

[Jennifer]

I’d heard the rule, but never seen it.  Never really looked for it though.