@thrasher1 Our group plays China at War, Turkey at War, Fighting Railways, and Diplomacy. We have played others, but those 4 are our favorites. Diplomacy is starting to wear out it’s welcome a bit, as far as I’m concerned. It adds a lot of fun to the game, but it heavily favors the Allies. Some games it can really swing things.
Convoy raiding
-
You are right, my math was off too, can’t use averages with escorts. Here’s a table created from my spreadsheet for raiding sub vs. escorts with +2 modifiers. I shortened it because creating a table was a hassle, no copy/paste :-(
| raider roll - escort roll
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 5 || # ways
| 5 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 1 || expected IPP loss
| 0.14 |
| 0.22 |
| 0.25 |
| 0.22 |
| 0.14 |
| 0.98 ||
The 2nd col is how many ways the raider minus escort roll can equal the 1st col (i.e. only 1 way to lose 5 from raiding: raider rolls 6, escort rolls 1). There is a 2.8% chance (0.17 * 0.17) for any combination of 2 rolls on a d6. The last column is the 1st col times 2nd col times 2.8%. So when both sides have +2 modifiers, the average IPP loss/turn/sub is 0.98, close enough to 1. If I understood you, it looks like we agree (you originally said 1.6, then said that was too high by 0.6-0.7). By the same method, I calculated 1.56 for 1 escort. This is for no escorts returning fire.
If escorts get even one return fire, that loses Germany 3.3 IPP/turn for 2 DD escorts. The only way raiding can be profitable for the Axis is against unprotected convoy lines. So keep on raiding and hope your opponent doesn’t read this post.
Suggested Topics
