What if

I assume that “What if Russia and Germany didnt go to war, could the Allies have won” means: “If Germany had not gone to war against Russia during WWII, could the Allies have won?”  Assuming that history unfolds as it did up to the divergence point of June 1941, the question therefore more or less becomes whether Britain and the Commonwealth could have won, because in mid-1941 they were the only significant powers still fighting the Europan Axis nations, if we assume that no other major powers (specifically Japan and the US) join the conflict, and if we treat the Sino-Japanese War (that started in 1937) as a separate (though linked) conflit.  My guess is that the answer would depend heavily on what Germany and Japan would do in such a scenario, without an invasion of the Soviet Union to distract them.  I think Britain would have been in serious trouble if Germany had launched an invasion of the Levant via Turkey, coordinated with an eastward push by Rommel, with both offensived aimed at closing the Suez Canal, followed by a strike towards oil-rich Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia.  If we assume that Japan and the US do end up joining the conflict in late 1941, or thereabouts, on the Axis and Allied sides respectively, then the Allied chances of winning would have been better than is Britain and the Commonwealth had been fighting alone, though it would still be a tough situation.

Yeah, this is clearly an allied win. Axis forces could not mass enough force to stop US from shipping their equipment to the allies. Leaving Germany and Italy to just worry about the west only makes it stronger for the Big 3 western allies to deal with.

GB & US vs G & J feels like an allied win to me, albeit a much tougher one. Allied industrial might, wartime innovation, superior manpower reserves and access to global resources would have been significant advantages.

If the axis had been able to swing conquered peoples behind them that would have evened things up a bit, particularly in the manpower area. But even where they had a case for being “liberators” (e.g.J expelling European imperialists) their militaristic culture often ended up alienation local populations. Although, there are, of course, many exceptions.

Leaving the only axis opportunity for victory being a quick conquest of GB. I do not believe G ever had a realistic opportunity to invade GB nor J to conquer India.

Thinking Axis “win” at least to the extent Germany could sustain a defensive posture and keep the Allies at bay long enough to force a settlement, whether by Germany getting the bomb or by Allied casualties being too high.

Japan would be destroyed.

Franco steadfastly refused to go to war because he didn’t think Germany could take Britain in the long run, So I’m not so sure it’s a simple win or lose for either side. Germany was stretched to it’s limit as far as ability to project power at sea, and any attempt to expand that would take a good deal of time.

Also in early 1941 the US was planning on raising 215 divisions, so they envisioned a long hard slogging war. They also envisioned a Russian defeat. It was only after the successes of the Russians that the 90 division gamble was decided on. I think the US was unique in the war in that they decided on a strategy of strategic air and stuck with it thru out the entire war, and I’m not sure the Germans could have withstood it. It just would have meant much more American blood would have been shed.

Good Points WG

US went too heavy on air and ran light on infantry. “Citizen Soldier” by Ambrose explains it well imo

I think it was a calculated decision as well as both a brave and wise one (in hindsight). Stalin was pretty furious with the 90 division gamble. He accused the US of trying to win the war with US money and material and Russian blood. Which we kind of did, and what did the Russians get in return….boom, banned from the Olympics! I’ll have to read Citizen Soldier.

LOL ! Yea Banned ! Why does their Hockey team get to play ? Ha Ha Ha ! Not laughing at you Ghost. Just the whole program in general. : )

Yea I found it a good read. Might be a little ethno USA but he is an American so …

I think Japan gets dominated, but Fortress Europe is way too strong.

I think worst case for Axis Europe is that a successful peace is achieved.  The might of German engineering piling in to aircraft and submarines, solely focused against the British will be a feat to achieve.

Further, I don’t believe Germany and USA end up going to war.

Let’s look at a few key points:
-With no Russia war, Hitler has no reason to DOW USA in 1941, Japan stands on its own.
-The USA whilst still pro-britain, stays inclined to avoid the europe mess, now that it’s dealing with a pacific one.
-Without War between Russia/USA, there is no war between USA/Germany
-Further, Without Russia at the allied conferences, adamant about only accepting unconditional surrender, the door to possible peace is left open.
-England suffers blockade, and the blitz doesnt end in May 1941, its goes on and on and on, with a possible sealion at some point.

Japan folds in 44

What if Russia and Germany didnt go to war, could the Allies have won?

I don’t understand this question.
Who would have started what kind of war?

If this is Germany against UK and France where UK and France start the War, it would be unlikely for Allies to win and would end in a stall like 1914/18 with frontlines arround the Magginotline.

If Germany would have made Preparation to Fall into France?
See History.
If Germany continued to finish off UK.
London would now be known as Reichsprotektorat Londonichen.

@aequitas:

London would now be known as Reichsprotektorat Londonichen.

:-P

I don’t understand why people keep suggesting that Britain would be doomed. Germany had it’s chance to invade the UK and could not do it. Even without Russia in the war, Germany was doomed, US material and if needed blood would ensure that. US involvement was inevitable, we simply could not allow our lend-lease (investments) go to waste. This is evidenced by the fact that we had plans to invade Europe in early 1941. These plans assumed Russia was conquered by Germany. It was only after the Russians showed they were not so easily beaten that we revised them.

If Germany would have leaned his whole interest of taking England, it would have conquered it.
Because of Germanys half hearted decision we assume today it would have ended badly for G.
Germany was in conquere mode since 1938.
They had everything they need to take down England.

But Germany had less interest for England.

Maybe they would have called it Reichsprotekriat Hess-don :wink:

I think it’s silly to state that Germany didn’t give the Battle of Britain their best effort. They simply could not do it. They didn’t have the Navy or the troop transports to get their army to Britain, they could barely keep the Africa Corps supplied. I guess Germany didn’t really want to conquer Russia either…did they sand bagged that one too?

You are saying it War Ghost.
If G had been dedicated to UK as they were to France or Russia '41, it would have been a different gameplay. The same applies to the DAK.
But UK and DAK were side shows for A.H. And he lost interest for Russia after '41.
It was Goebbels who shout out and declared total war in '43.

The Set up for an SL invasion would have been totally different. Instead he let fisherboats turned into minesweepers clear a path for his Invasion force?
Common… 8-) :?

I find it ironic that you’re using game terms to describe the German war effort, i.e. “would have been a different gameplay” and “The set up would have been totally different.” I would agree that Sea Lion in Axis and Allies is much harder to resist than it was in WW II. In the real war Germany didn’t have the infrastructure or the resources to make an amphibious invasion on that scale. It was a three year effort for the US who had far greater resources than Germany. I suspect we won’t come to an agreement on this, so I’ll defer to history.

I keep it simple and in laconic sentenses.

It is interesting that you say Germany did not have the resources and Infrastructure.
How again did they came to Norway again??

If G. really wanted to come over they would have done the job.

Hier guet Division Brandenburg.

Without 3/4 of Gremany’s forces devoted to Russia, the UK would have been a speed bump if they didn’t capitulate first.