Paris Failure

there is no way that you should fail to take Paris.  it is a 99% odds battle in your favor if you only bring the ground units that can reach and there are 2 planes that you can elect to bring that cannot really go anywhere else on G1.

If you are failing to take Paris it is because you are undercomitting the battle and trying to grab other squares or move other directions.  There are two fleet battles with almost 12-15 pieces headed there, you should be able to handily pull off all 3 of these initial battles with a winning result in the OOB setup.

If somehow this isn’t happening, you can ditch 1 of the 2 UK sea battles and send 6 planes to Paris.  Don’t attack Normandy or france.  You don’t have to, but every time someone has blown this battle it was because they got cocky and didn’t bring everything.  You can’t dial in critical openers like this they have to be done by the book.

1, no because anyone who blows paris is too much of a noob to expect to take Moscow at any point
2, no, its better to take paris it round 1 like everyone else does rather than thinking of the second objective first
3.  no, I’ve seen people blow the opening attack (because they only brought half the tanks and mechs to the stupid battle) and still win or at least not lose but they definitely reduce their chances of either if they blow the opener.

39 game is going to have a different setup im referring to 40.  Maybe you are playing Global War?  Then perhaps a 1939 first turn attack isn’t advisable because Germany isn’t ready in 1939…

The chance of truly being diced is 1%.  I’ve seen this battle fail but it is going to be exceptionally rare if you bring every piece that can come.

Sorry SS, but am confused by this.

Although I have known Paris not to fall G1, when as F I threw some very lucky dice, there is now way that it can withstand a follow-up attack G2.

So taking Paris remains the G priority until it falls, ahead of either London or Moscow.

Perhaps I am misunderstanding something? :?

@Private:

Although I have known Paris not to fall G1, when as F I threw some very lucky dice, there is now way that it can withstand a follow-up attack G2.

So taking Paris remains the G priority until it falls, ahead of either London or Moscow.

If France fails, all those starting French IPCs translate into French defenders (more dead Germans) instead of German units.  The swing cannot be overcome.

@taamvan:

there is no way that you should fail to take Paris.� it is a 99% odds battle in your favor if you only bring the ground units that can reach and there are 2 planes that you can elect to bring that cannot really go anywhere else on G1.

If you are failing to take Paris it is because you are undercomitting the battle and trying to grab other squares or move other directions.� �

Why should a 1% chance of failure be the acceptable risk?  This is wholly arbitrary.  You can lessen that risk by neglecting other battles, or you take bigger risk in France to gain a bigger edge elsewhere.

Taking France doesn’t guarantee an Axis Victory.  Accepting an extra 1-2% chance of failure might be the right play if it gives you a good head start the 97% of the time that you still crush France.

Don’t forget, depending on what the UK does with its fighters, you may also be able to take France with Italy if you don’t want to wait until G2.

In my limited experience (about 50-60 games) I believe I’ve seen Paris hold about three times.  The dice gods can be a fickle lot.  It’s not an automatic death-sentence for the Axis, but against a solid Allies player with a decent bid you will be really under the gun right from the get-go.

If Germany fails to take Paris on the first round, you will be the laughing stock around your table for along time.

@StuckTojo:

I believe I’ve seen Paris hold about three times.  The dice gods can be a fickle lot.

Well if the odds of Paris holding is 1%, I bet there were 100 games of Global played in the first week of the games release.

It’s arguably not good design.  Especially if optimal German play means skimping a little more (to pick up extra percentage points when the battle goes well).  Yeah, it’s fun to reenact the fall of Paris, but ultimately does it just introduce unnecessary variance?

I think the consensus on Italy taking France is that it’s a net negative in the long run. While Italy can become a monster in the Mediterranean and launch attacks into Russia, Germany needs the extra pocket change for Barbarossa units to build in the second turn.

Talking about getting diced….one instance I had a battle…14 rolls at 4…2 hits…my opponent had 20 some odd at 2…1st roll of 10 6 hits…ok. 2nd roll of 10…9 hits…yeah…though I won the battle in the end…it cost me the game…diced…oye still nightmares over that one

I have had Paris fail happen both for me and against me.  It happens 1-3% of the time, depending on what you commit to that battle.  I usually restart since it isn’t fun to play for 10 rounds with the knowledge that the Axis will eventually fall short.

My personal recommendation is to ask the opponent if it is okay to restart, assuming that you weren’t trying some really ambitious German opening move.  If he says no, congratulate him for the amazing win and never play that guy again.

Even with 1inf 1art taken out as is usual in Balanced Mod, at least if I’m playing, it is still 0.1% chance that it will fail.

http://calc.axisandallies.org/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&aInf=10&aArt=2&aArm=6&aFig=&aBom=&aTra=&aSub=&aDes=&aCru=&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=6&dArt=&dArm=2&dFig=1&dBom=2&dTra=&dSub=&dDes=&dCru=&dCar=&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Sub-SSub-Des-Fig-JFig-Cru-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat-Tra&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Bom-HBom-Sub-SSub-Des-Car-Cru-Fig-JFig-dBat-Tra&battle=Run&rounds=&reps=10000&luck=pure&ruleset=AA1942&territory=&round=1&pbem=

A G1 DOW as I would do it will remove an additional 2 tanks, it is still only a 2.2% chance that the attack will fail. These numbers are non zero so no need to troll on the OP.

What does happen sometimes is you lose too many tanks, or perhaps forget to bring in the tanks from Gr Sth Germany.

One thing no one has mentioned is that normally Italy can take Paris in that case. That means that the damage isn’t too severe - just that Italy gets the cash instead, and it’s not severe if the French can retake Paris after Italy’s sack of it. I can’t imagine a scenario where the Paris attack fails so badly that the Italians can’t take it down!?

Simon, the issue is usually when you take out a couple of units to do another French territory on G1.  That still leaves you 97-99% chance of victory in Paris so is not too crazy of a plan, yet will inevitably fail in one of your games. You are now down 8-10 fast movers and possibly an additional plane.  You also have 4 fewer fast movers that can be purchased on G2, assuming that Italy has sufficient forces to take Paris on I1.

With 12-15 critical units removed for Germany, it is going to be a struggle to push into Russia.  The Red Army can stack in front of your forces and you can’t force them to retreat.  Unless Germany can force the opposition to eventually retreat back to Moscow, your chance of winning is slim to none.  Economically the UK+Russia will be able to match your spending, leaving the US to wreck havoc somewhere on the board.  I am sure that a talented Axis player still has a good chance to beat a much less skilled Allied opponent, but in anything close to a fair match the game is not going to have a favorable outcome.  Still the match might continue for a dozen turns before the Axis gives up so you have spent so much of your life to prove something that you realized on G1.

@Arthur:

Simon, the issue is usually when you take out a couple of units to do another French territory on G1.  That still leaves you 97-99% chance of victory in Paris so is not too crazy of a plan, yet will inevitably fail in one of your games. You are now down 8-10 fast movers and possibly an additional plane.  You also have 4 fewer fast movers that can be purchased on G2, assuming that Italy has sufficient forces to take Paris on I1.

But that is what I was suggesting! Everything land that can reach minus 1inf 1art 2arm will only fail 2.2% of the time.

Going Italy strong has some advantages, not least because a CV can be bought early although for that to work you generally have to avoid a scramble to Taranto or you won’t have anything to put on it.

@simon33:

One thing no one has mentioned is that normally Italy can take Paris in that case. That means that the damage isn’t too severe - just that Italy gets the cash instead, and it’s not severe if the French can retake Paris after Italy’s sack of it. I can’t imagine a scenario where the Paris attack fails so badly that the Italians can’t take it down!?

Actually, it was mentioned.  :wink: