Can Egypt be saved?

My current understanding of the fastest road to Axis victory now consists of the following:

Germany buys enough naval in turn 1 that the UK is forced to place units in London on UK1.  After that, it is 100% ground buys to crush Russia.  If the German player decides to waste a turn with the what seems to be needless I2/G3 attack, then Russia dies G6 or G7.  I haven’t been able to work out any series of Russian buys that can prevent this (I haven’t tried the all-Infantry route, does that actually work?).  In this scenario Italy’s only mission in life is to take out Cairo, which appears to be all too easy to do.  Then the game ends immediately or 1 round later, depending on how long it takes to mop up Volgograd.

So I have a couple of scenarios here for your analysis, none of which I’ve found successful, so I’m wondering what, if anything, will work.

Scenario 1, Aggressive opener:  Italians lose in SZ97 and Malta and are possibly attacked in either Tobruk or Ethiopia.  In this scenario Italy likely only collects 7 IPC I1 due to Convoy losses.  They spend their time I1 consolidating their forces and killing the French fleet if Germany didn’t do it already.  Maybe also hit any ships off Malta, if any.  Buy a replacement Transport.

On the next German turn, Germany uses its air force to sink all the British ships in the Med.  Then land in Africa to guard any remaining Italian troops and to be ready as a sacrifice if needed to attack Cairo to clean it out for the next Italian attack.  The usage of the German air force prevents the Allies from getting enough units into Cairo to hold out against this 1-2 combination.  A UK IC there UK1 can slow the process a little, but this just adds a small delay.  A Japanese player willing to hurt their position on the Pacific board can also send over Carriers + Air to also pick up where Germany leaves off if necessary.  It doesn’t matter how badly the Pacific goes if you guaranteed the win on the Europe board.

Scenario 2, Turtle: UK focuses on the Tobruk attack and skips SZ97.  In this case Italy skips the French fleet (if present) and slaughters the UK on its own.  In this scenario Italy gets its full income in the first round and possibly the NO for no Allied ships right away.  The German air force still goes down to Africa to clean out whatever pocket of troops the UK might have built up.

All the Allied options are a catch-22:

• Spend everything in the Med.  The Axis can just send more so you’ll lose, but this at least drags the process out a bit.  Expect Cairo to be lost the same time Moscow falls, if not earlier.
• Spend everything in the Atlantic.  Italy expands rapidly and outproduces UK-Europe.
• Have the US go all-out Europe.  Japan counters by not attacking the Western Allies, which is detrimental to Japan’s long-term interests, but since you win in Europe, it’s irrelevant.  There is nothing the US can buy that will allow them to get Paris, Rome, or Cairo by the time the game ends in round 6 or 7.

Am I overlooking anything here?

@Jeff28:

It’s when Italy can re-inforce it is the problem and then build and hold an factory, thereby breaking into the Middle East and Africa.

Support from German air guarantees that they can reinforce as early as I2.  I’m starting to think that Italy should always buy a Transport round 1 if you don’t have 2 left over after the UK turn.  The UK might have a good starting force of planes left in Malta if things went really well, but on average you might just see a Bomber and Tac there.  This won’t be enough to threaten the Italian navy in the period of the game where it really matters.  Italy never needs to build an IC since doing shucks from Rome is going to allow them to outproduce whatever the UK makes in S.Africa + a Middle East IC.

@Jeff28:

Building a Persia factory can help.

Building units in S. Africa can help.

You should have one or two Indian ocean transports around that can shuck, along with a cruiser and maybe the battleship for bombards. Killing Ethopia UK1 can help.

Lots of cans in there.  Really you only have 1 Transport, unless you are willing to hurt the UK-Pacific economy by preventing them from using the one they get to take DEI islands while they can.  The TT is also very vulnerable to Bombers coming in and landing on places like Italian Somaliland.  You can use the Pacific fleet to guard it, which means these ships are unavailable to use as blockers if Japan threatens a J3/J4 India hit.

@Jeff28:

Usually my goal is not to retake Egypt and hold it, but preventing a factory build if possible and containing the Axis and holding the middle east, while getting Iraq for Russia and Italian Somaliland for Russia on your transport. Those extra IPCs for the NOs can make the difference in Moscow.

Also a Persia factory + airbase can fly planes straight to Russia in one turn, if Russia doesn’t fall the allies can win.

I like the idea in theory of Russia getting money from its NO, but this has been too unwieldy in practice.  With the typical I2/G3 I’m seeing, you won’t be able to get a Russian unit into Africa until R6- just in time for that extra money to go into Germany’s bank account (R5 being possible if you use a 2-movement unit).  This also ties up use of a British TT which really needs to be shucking in units.  Iraq should also not be available for Russia in turn 5.  Italy has more than enough time to send somebody through Syria to force the UK to seize it if they haven’t already.  It’s also somewhat hurtful to UK’s income to let Russia have these territories as Italy outproduces UK-Europe the minute they start collecting NOs in round 3 or 4 at the latest (especially if you took any territory from the UK that blocks their all original territories NO).  Iraq & Persia are at least 4 IPCs that Italy can’t convoy away once they set up shop in SZ98.

I like the idea of the Persian air shuck, but the game is likely going to be over long before the UK is in a position to be able to spend most of its income on air for Russia.

@Jeff28:

But when the German stack goes south for the money that +8 comes in handy

And that would be a big mistake in my opinion for the German player.  I read a lot of I like to get the factories around Moscow and outproduce the Russians posts.  You already outproduce the Russians with a big artillery buy G2 and then all Mech Infantry after that.  Buy your wave of Bombers the turn your ground forces are adjacent to Moscow and poof- so long Russia.  Just take Moscow and then scoop up the south later.  You probably already have the south anyway as Russia can’t afford to leave too much behind there if they feel they can squeeze out a 1 turn delay by leaving more in Russia.  If the Allies are flying fighters in to save it, then they must be weak in other areas of the board that should cost them their economic advantage.

I’ve debated the idea of sending the Russian stack from Bryansk south for Cairo to try and either liberate it or make it harder for the Axis to take it to begin with, but such a plan has a certain amount of risk to it.  If the Axis allowed you to keep Cairo, then it is probably better to just turtle in Moscow to force as many German pieces to come off the board as possible before you go out.

After the obligatory Rd1 buy of all Inf, the UK player should move units up from South Africa and fly planes into the Med via Gibraltar.  Egypt can tighten up pretty fast if Italy doesn’t take it Rd 2.  When does Egypt usually fall in your games?

This game has my longest record for holding Egypt against determined Axis attack, I think I finally lost it G6, which fits in with perfect Axis play, since they have it right in hand when they take Russia:

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=29680.0

I will state up front I was careless and tried to clean out Italy too fast from the south and didn’t take into account the possibility that German air would come down there.  I also should have dumped a US full Atlantic buy at least one round sooner, but I was trying to take a long-term strategic view and guarantee that Japan wouldn’t have a resurgence in my absence.  The real point is that when I try to correct these mistakes, I actually lose Egypt all the faster since the Axis responds by putting more resources of their own in there.

Once it’s clear that German isn’t going for the UK on G2, the UK player can fly 3 Ftr to Gib, and place an Airbase there.  On Rd3, 3 Brit Ftrs and 1 French Ftr can land in Egypt.

This seems to imply you didn’t do a full-strength attack in SZ97.  If you don’t go all-out in 97 then Italy usually (depends on dice of course) has enough resources left on its own to finish off the SZ98 fleet wherever it goes (unless it hides in the Red Sea) unless Germany left enough Allied ships alive around down there to make a stack that discourages Italian attack.  If Germany went with the 2 TT buy then they can dump a serious force in Gibraltar if you didn’t block it, which sacrifices your fighters for nothing.  I think it’s actually better to land in the French sub-Saharan territories since you can still get to Egypt in 1 more move.  The downside being you can’t get back to London if Germany suddenly does something to change your mind.

Also, I have never seen the Allies attack Tobruk.

I read about this in posts that were very old, it seems to have fallen out of favor to attacks in Ethiopia or holing up in Egypt.  I’m starting to warm up to it since it denies Italy & Germany the landing spots they need to have a successful attack in Egypt I2.  This could allow the UK to have enough time to reinforce it if they didn’t build the IC on UK1/2.  If you have the bid sub in SZ98 this option gets more attractive since you can send it to Malta to make that more of a lock as you don’t really need it in the SZ97 attack.

Is this just theory crafting?  Have you ever TRIED this?  India can use blocking ships to delay any Japanese fleet from reaching Egypt until at least Rd 7.  Combine with DD blockers placed in South Africa if needed.

50% crafting, maybe.  I agree that this won’t happen until J6/7 depending on what the Allies do.  I don’t agree that it is quite so easy to just block Japan with no consequence.  It is difficult to predict what is happening in the Indian Ocean at that stage of the game.  Strategically though the Allies cannot tell the difference between an India-crush and a potential Egypt-crush.  I would expect that India has already lost its blockers trying to prevent the J3/J4 attack on Calcutta.  If London buys blocker DDs for South Africa, then you’re not buying the 2x Mech Inf that need to be trickling up north to save Egypt from Italy.  I’m sure India won’t buy any replacement blockers because their income is about to drop dramatically and they need to avoid losing Calcutta.  Also, I don’t see how you can reasonably expect the Allies to be able to block everything an Indian Ocean Japanese fleet can threaten.  You can go back and hit Calcutta, land in Persia and possibly drop an IC there, go down to force the UK to defend South Africa, or move on to Egypt.  If the US is countering with full-on Atlantic buys, then this move is very safe for Japan and you will still be matching US income after taking the DEI.

If Germany throws its airforce away clearing out land units in Africa, then the US can sail in pretty much unprotested.  And you’re also incorrect.  If Italy skips the French fleet as you say, then they would NOT get their no Allied ships NO.
In your German opener, do they destroy all of the UK navy?

You’re right about the French of course.  Typically I see Germany sink the British BBs and the Gibraltar cruiser.  The French may or may not be there.  If the Axis has decided to make Egypt a priority I would expect Germany to hit the French round 1 and then land planes where they are of use on offense or defense round 2.  Frequently the UK only starts with the DD & TT off Ireland with the choice of sending everything to help the Med. or going after a damaged German BB.

I disagree.  What do you mean the Axis can spend more in the Med?  It starts out 28 vs 10, with no way for Germany to place units there.  Plus anything Germany manages to place there isn’t going after Russia.

That 10 appears in the Med round 1, the 28 does not unless the UK risks the round 1 IC buy.  Lots of advice for Allied players goes for a full London buy round 1 and round 2.  From what I can see, 2 rounds of London buys means you can kiss Africa goodbye for sure, and I’m also fairly convinced even 1 round of a full London buy means the same.  I disagree that Italian income doesn’t rise as quickly as Japan’s.  It is not hard to get Italy up to 20 with 1 NO + French & Balkan territory on round 2.  Then you only need 1 more NO to basically match the UK in income round 3.  Very easy to get by taking Gibraltar or Egypt (pushing through to Morocco is also easy but slower).  Germany doesn’t need to place anything there, that is part of my point.  Just do the small trickling of naval buys you might have done anyway to annoy the UK in the Atlantic.  The German Air Force is only sacrificed if the UK player managed to get enough defenders to Cairo that Italy can’t take it solo.  There is plenty of time to redirect it for a G6/7 assault on Moscow, although from what I’ve seen you don’t even need air to take Moscow if you went heavy ground in all the turns prior.  If you do, just buy all Bombers the turn before your attack.  Continue to buy heavy air after to defend Rome or sack whatever fleet the USA tries to commit.

Italy will not outproduce the UK for a good 5 turns, which isn’t rapid at all.

I’ll agree that it can take a while for Italy to exceed UK’s income, but it does not take that long to get close enough as to make no difference.  Especially when all of Italy’s buys are directly at the scene of the action while the UK is funneling in troops slowly from London or Cape Town, if they backed off making a more local IC.

The US, going all Europe, can have an air force that clears the way Rd 5 in the Med for a Rd 6 sacking of Rome.

I think this relies on too many assumptions:

• US went full Europe from round 1
• Germany cannot toss out a blocker(s) to prevent US arrival in Gibraltar US4 (this would be the perfect time to sacrifice the starting German fleet, if it is still there)
• Italy doesn’t have enough ships to block US5 and US6 (a possibility if Italy has something stashed in SZ97, 98, or Cyprus).

So many things can have happened in the Med I don’t think you can argue that the US can be guaranteed to take Rome, especially in a situation where Italy felt safe enough to do heavy Infantry buys I4 & I5.  It’s all speculation that relies on what exactly happened in Egypt.

In sum, it seems your stated premise is that the Axis will win, and there’s nothing the Allies can do about it.  I disagree.

I would love to be convinced otherwise.

I do agree that if the Axis spend enough resources, they can take Egypt.  Without question.  However, I think the Allies can make them pay for it in such away that victory is now removed from their grasp.

I disagree that this forfeits an Axis victory.  The opportunity cost for the Axis is much less to seize Egypt at any price than it is for the Allies to hold it at any price.

@Gekkepop:

You make some good points Eggman but I don’t agree with all of them and don’t think the situation is as bad as you make it out to be. First of all you cannot block the US from Gibraltar, he will just clear your blocker and NCM there. Once he is there he doesn’t just threaten Rome, he can still go Western Germany or Denmark-Berlin with help from the UK, especially if Germany has been buying bombers. Also flying fighters into Russia to save it can be very strong against plays like this. If you make a gambit for Russia and it holds, the Allies should just win no matter how much you sacrificed in other theatres.

It varies a lot depending on what has been happening.  If Germany went with the 2 TT buy and the UK has been spending everything to save Egypt, then it is usually a safe assumption to say that Gibraltar is in Axis hands.  This will make the block effective since the US will be forced to spend a turn taking Gibraltar back.  The best Egypt-killing play is to probably do the 2 TT buy, and clear SZs 106, 91, 110, and 111.  The UK can then use the DD to block loss of Gibraltar G2, but that just means you lose it G3 if Italy didn’t take it already.  This is probably likely if the Allies didn’t go 100% into making Egypt a fortress.

I have grave doubts the fighters-to-Moscow strategy has any real merit.  What turn are you starting this chain?  Doing this is also going to hand the Med to Italy on a silver platter, so the UK can only send something like 2.5 a turn.  Will 10 UK Fighters be enough for Moscow to hold?  The German player can also contest the landing grounds if they see this is going to happen, unless the Russian player helps out by leaving the Novgorod stack behind to defend it… meaning less men in Moscow.  Since I haven’t seen a single league game where anybody does this, I assume it doesn’t work.  But Can Russia be saved? is its own thread.

@ErwinRommel:

Ill keep it simple this time!

1. Bid middeleast units
2. Dont bid London, no need
3. Dont scramble if you dont get tradevalue 1.5 german planes(not ships) per 1 british fgt. You want to use that genius brain of yours to win, no need to gamble.
4. Sink z97 always
5. Be offencive with UK buys if you can, dont always fall back on 9men turn one.
6. Buy many fighters r2-4 and land them on american carriers when possible, they get 7 moves (3+4).)

I almost never ever scramble since I need to save the planes for SZ97.  Assuming a flawless victory there, you have DD, CA, CV, + 2 Fighters to defend against 3x Fighter, 3x Tac, 2x Bomber from a typical German player.  If they planned their landings well they can attack with even more, this setup as it is gives 99% odds with a loss of 3-4 planes.  If the German player is planning on the I2/G3 Barbarossa then these planes have nothing else to do round 2.  The German player can then land as many as they like in Alexandria if it was taken I1 (the assumption being that the UK had to retreat out to cover Cairo).  If the Italian player was left with 2 TTs in I1, then the UK definitely has to pull out from Alexandria.  The German planes then provide cover for a growing Italian stack.  They can then make a suicide hit on Cairo if needed, or be used to kill any fleets hiding in the Red Sea (which might have guard ships that are covering a Cape Town shuck).  None of your points 1-5 solve this option.

The Fighter shuck is an interesting option.  You can skip the Cairo IC and try to shuck Infantry from Cape Town.  Then the Fighter shuck goes London -> French West Africa -> Cairo.  This might work and discourage the German hit to soften up Cairo.  The downside of this is that it is a very defensive plan.  In this situation I foresee the Italians still getting rich off the 3 NOs they can get without taking Cairo.  It will also be very hard for Britain to maintain fighter production if any German subs survived the first turn since you have to make DDs to hunt them down.  The US is not going to be available to do it for them (see below).

I think you (and most of the people who are replying) also are giving too much weight to the ability of the US player to affect events (the idea that the US can just make a bunch of Carriers solely to hold UK planes seems a bit much).  A smart Japanese player will never issue the DoW J1 - J3.  This degrades their ability to get the Pacific win, but who cares, when you will win in Europe in round 6-7.  So in most scenarios the US can do nothing at all in the time available, except maybe keep spitting out Fighters that could possibly land in Cairo US5 if the Allies still hold it.

I’ve been toying with the idea of a naval buy for India round 1 to help get some extra ships over to the Red Sea, or even using the starting TT to help reinforce the attack on Ethiopia.  I’m not convinced either plan is wise since India starts out on such thin ice already.

Gibraltar is a coin toss.  If Germany went heavy against the UK navy G1, then in UK1 you might only have the SZ109 DD & TT.  Is it worth the risk to lighten the defense of London and risk the loss of these ships to a G2 counterattack in order to reinforce Gibraltar?  If Germany did the AC/DD/SS buy, then you will likely lose the ships but hold Gibraltar for quite some time if Italy is trying to keep up with a Cairo arms race.  This is one of the reasons I think Germany should always do the 22 TT buy over the DD/SS buy.  By taking Normandy you clear a place for the Italian bomber to land to clean out any place the UK can leave a blocker if they have the DD left and want to use it.  If they don’t block, or you don’t want to use Italy on the blocker, then just move up the fleet to be in a position to sack it G3.  If the UK defended Cairo with everything they had, the German fleet will be untouchable.  If they didn’t defend Cairo with everything, then perhaps Italy won’t have a problem getting it.  I’ve held Gibraltar in numerous games and it didn’t solve any of my problems in the Med.

@Whackamatt: SZ97 is 5 spaces from London, so your Fighters there can attack it and land on the Carrier.  This means every other air unit in the battle (including the one that started on the Carrier) has to land in Malta.