Sealion Stats- Cliff Notes

I’ve improved my German/Italian strategy to the point that if the US doesn’t committ anything to Europe, the allies will lose - and lose bad.

Even if Japan is wiped off the board by US8, which, isn’t likely to happen.  Without intervention of somekind by the US, into the mediterranean or otherwise, the Axis will win in Europe - nye guarunteed.

This can be compounded with a micro Japanese campaign against the Russians in the east - eroding the red income.

Try it on the Europe board.  Take the U.S. right out of the game.  The Allies don’t stand a chance.  Thats also considering Germany gets 2 less IPC’s from the Paris capture, and the reds give a full committment against germany, with no troop draws to japan, and no chance of income erosion in the east.

All theories of a 100% American committment to Japan are hereby debunked.

And just think of the Japanese counter options, if you know the yanks are coming, and you only have to play a delay game…

@questioneer:

Germany’s Best Scenario
11inf, 3art, 8tnk, 5ftr, 5tac, 1bmr+1BB+1CZ= 93pips= 15hits r3

1art, 1tnk, 7ftr, 1tac= 36pips/6 = 6hits

Ger
1tnk, 2ftr, 3tac, 1bmr= 24/6= 4hits

1fully loaded transport is missing for your Germany’s Best Scenario…

@Gargantua:

I’ve improved my German/Italian strategy to the point that if the US doesn’t committ anything to Europe, the allies will lose - and lose bad.

Even if Japan is wiped off the board by US8, which, isn’t likely to happen.  Without intervention of somekind by the US, into the mediterranean or otherwise, the Axis will win in Europe - nye guarunteed.

This can be compounded with a micro Japanese campaign against the Russians in the east - eroding the red income.

Try it on the Europe board.  Take the U.S. right out of the game.  The Allies don’t stand a chance.  Thats also considering Germany gets 2 less IPC’s from the Paris capture, and the reds give a full committment against germany, with no troop draws to japan, and no chance of income erosion in the east.

All theories of a 100% American committment to Japan are hereby debunked.

And just think of the Japanese counter options, if you know the yanks are coming, and you only have to play a delay game…

Have you tried that strategy I posted about a month ago?  If so did you make any modifications?

I am more and more convinced that throughout each game, the allies need significant support from the US on both boards.

Well I agree that with your setup its hard for the germans to win sealion. However if I am going to go sealion, I am going to go after Normandy and that fighter, and I am going to try and get the DD + trans sitting off the coast of Canada.

I would point out you are missing 1 TT for another 1 inf and 1 art.

Also, if UK scambles in G1, that allows Germany to land 6 ground units in Scotland to seal the deal on London.

@questioneer:

UK’s Best Scenario
26inf, 1art, 1tnk, 7ftr, 1tac+ AA=94pips/6= 15hits r4

Germany’s Best Scenario
11inf, 3art, 8tnk, 5ftr, 5tac, 1bmr+1BB+1CZ= 93pips= 15hits r3

…for simplicity let’s say they hit on the remainders- best case…

Round 2

UK
10inf, 1art, 1tnk, 7ftr, 1tac=56pips/6 = 9hits r2

Ger
6tnk, 5ftr, 5tac, 1bmr= 57pips/6 = 9hits r3

Round 3

UK
1art, 1tnk, 7ftr, 1tac= 36pips/6 = 6hits

Ger
1tnk, 2ftr, 3tac, 1bmr= 24/6= 4hits

Definite win for UK

Battle Calculator puts this at 84% for UK. However this is assuming a few things which may or may not happen depending on Round 1-2 movements or battles…

1.) UK is able to transport the 2inf, 1art, 1tank fm Canada. That means the TTs were not sunk by German subs (50/50 shot).

2.) Normandy is not taken G1- meaning UK has an extra fighter

3.) Planes from Gibraltar and the Med (2ftr, 1tac) are ALL flown to England- ASAP- z92 move etc.

Missing one or more of these land units/aircraft points mentioned-one begins to see the Percentage drop quickly. Worst case scanario for UK according to Battle Calc is 70% German advantage. So if your UK- dot your i’s and cross your t’s. If you are Germany- you better have a backup plan just in case…

Conclusion:

UK CAN defend itself securely against Sealion. If it does, it usually gives up some power in the Med though.

If Germany fakes Sealion, they can usually strap UK to the island but they are stuck with 11 transports.

These can be used for a Barborossa invasion (instead of buying mech for mov’t) however to make the best use of them the Allies will know for sure that you are attacking northward (Novograd area) and not southward (Cauc)- this gives them better preparation in positioning.

Is Barborossa a better option??? Probably, unless the board dictates otherwise. But as Germany the moment you don’t buy 10 transports G2- that’s the tip-off and UK can start securing Africa/Med and build aircraft for the defense of Russia.

In either case, with in combination of the US doing the ALL Pacific strat on Japan. Axis choices seem limited and not very prospective IMHO…but let me save a final judgment til my playtesting and others are finished (got 3 long online games going right now), sadly I won’t be able to playtest FTF game for a few weeks…

@questioneer:

Yeah scrambling is just not smart for UK- not only will it seal the deal for London- it might seal the game for Axis…

Well, that’s an opinion…Personally, i think it depends on how many planes Germany send in sz110. With only 5 German planes or less in sz110, scrambling is a no brainer for me.

It’s a tough call.  You need to get lucky if UK scrambles in sz110 if Germany comes in with 3 fht, 2 tac and 2 sb.  You should get 3 hits with UK, but what if 2 are on sbs?

Risky.

More often than not, I walk away as Germany with a smile on my face.

@jim010:

It’s a tough call.  You need to get lucky if UK scrambles in sz110 if Germany comes in with 3 fht, 2 tac and 2 sb.  You should get 3 hits with UK, but what if 2 are on sbs?

Risky.

More often than not, I walk away as Germany with a smile on my face.

I admit that’s true, but in my experience, 3 german planes or more are going to be shot often enough for scrambling to be worth it.

I would also point out that if you scramble, that makes landing in scotland on turn 2 with 6 units worth it, as you’ll no longer have the planes to hit my fleet protecting my 3 TTs in sz111 used for landing in Scotland, nor can you now hit my newly built TTs in sz113.

Those extra 6 ground units really scew the odds in Germany’s favour.

I still maintain what I have said in other threads, though, that Sealion can be stopped.

@jim010:

I would also point out that if you scramble, that makes landing in scotland on turn 2 with 6 units worth it, as you’ll no longer have the planes to hit my fleet protecting my 3 TTs in sz111 used for landing in Scotland, nor can you now hit my newly built TTs in sz113.

Those extra 6 ground units really scew the odds in Germany’s favour.

In fact, not really…
I didn’t do it in our E40 game since i wanted to try the 5ss strat, but on UK2, you can attack the 6 units in Sco with 2 units from Que , 3 or 4units from Uk and 4 planes. The idea is to do just 1 round of combat and then retreat to Uk. Unless Germany gets very lucky in this battle, this negates partially the Germany’s good odds you were talking about.

That also plays into Germany’s hands, though, as you are pulling units from the defense of London to do it, and I will still end up with some extra units attacking from Scotland.  And heaven forbid I hit more than 2 and shoot a plane (you will already be short from scrambling.)

My point is, scrambling is risky, and will usually give Germany more options, and UK less.

Besides, your odds of stopping Sealion are better if you don’t scramble.

@questioneer:

Jim- now that I’ve had time and experience to look at the options for both sides in the first 3 rounds and crunch the numbers- I wholeheartedly agree- though if any combination of 2 out of the 3 points I’ve given earlier doesn’t happen- as Germany I’d think you’d have to pull the trigger.

AxisPlaya- for this reason I bring 3ftr, 3tac and 2SS sometimes to ensure the win in z110 and discourage the scramble.

The only draw back on this, is that you are now only sending 1 fht to Southern Italy for defense of the Italian fleet, rather than 1 fht and 1 tac.

Have you tried that strategy I posted about a month ago?  If so did you make any modifications?

Daedulus, I did,  but there are VERY effective counters.  We were also theorizing unde a rule miscalculation, the rule now being that you can’t unload from German transports unless they are at war already.

With that strategy there is also no point in building a complex G1, IMO.

for this reason I bring 3ftr, 3tac and 2SS sometimes to ensure the win in z110 and discourage the scramble.

Jim, Axis, have you guys considered what happens when you don’t send 5 planes + 2 subs to that sz, JUST to kill a battleship/cruiser?  You should sus those options…. they make for an amazing G1.

Indeed, I hit the bb dd off scotland(only 1 ftr can scramble) and the dd trn off Canada.  Now UK is at the mercy of my sub stacks and is down 1 trn for the def of UK.

I think with a minimal investment by US(1 CV 1 dd 1 tac or ftr) and the UK doing everything in its power to save its capital it is possible to defend a G3.  But if Germ wants UK they can still take it G4.