The Big Egypt gambit (long)

Why is germanys first round total attack on egypt a gambit ?

A gambit is a term used in chess to describe a doubtfull or even wrong opening move involving sacrificing a piece of matirial to gain some other advantage in the game. This advantages could be in form of better development or just playing a familliar type of game. It needs some skill and understanding of the game and accurate play for the opponent to refuse a gambit. Gambits are played and enjoyed by a lot of players including me, because of that

In axis and allies a gambit would be the same , just also involving opening moves relying on dice luck as well.

Setup: a RR game, with new factorys allowed, and with or without axis advantage and not 2hit battleships

An total german attack on egypt would include 1 armour, 1 fighter, 1+2 infantery against 1 inf and 1 armour in egypt, and a german battleship and the transport (and maybe a fighter) against the sub.

Looking at the outcome from a german point of view.

The best case : No losses – 3 inf and 1 armour enters egypt. And 1 fighter lands in libya.
To happend less than 1/7 cases

Good case: 1 inf loss. Something like 1/5 cases

Even case : 2 inf lost (with or without a transport lost)
something like 1/3 case

Bad case : 3 inf lost
Around ¼ cases

No case :4+ troops lost
Around 1 /14 cases

(germany could have brought in a fighter in the sub battle just lovering the chance for a second round shoot from the sub from 1/3 to 1/6, and this improves the odds a little for an axis succes)

These numbers is not total precise , (i did like 2 rounds of battle calculations). But they are acurate enough to see the fact, that a counter attack from england (including the 2 infantry from india,) 3 inf and a fighter will have supirior odds taking egypt back without expecting more than 1 inf. loss. This would happend In close to 2 out of 3 cases
But in 1 in 5 cases england face a more even battle and in 1in 7 its a bad one.

With this gambit , the german take over of africa is proberly delayed or stopped.
the sub could have taken the transport- germany might not have bought another transport- and if he has there might be in turn 2 a transport as a airtarget , and he could have lost troops in egypt, all over weaknesses there means that its limited how fast troops is sailing into africa.

This is a case where african factorys are appropiate . The english is building a factory in south africa, and if the course of the game calls for it later( sometimes next round), another one in egypt.

With a normal (recommended) german build up in libia , adding an transport to the mediterrainan fleet (and drowning all english ships) egypt is threatend by 8 inf and 1 armour attack in round 2 and germany have the abillity to bridge 4 more troops over each round. Here an african factory would often simply be runned over. (but off cause a german player devoting to many troops would miss them elsewhere and that can be the whole point of the factory)

But with the egypt gambit, the german if very, very lucky can get 4 troops over in round 2 (and just as likely 0), and most likely 2 and proberly he have lost nearly every ground troop in africa already.(this depends a lot on if the english find it valuable and safe to target a new build mediterrainian transport with its bomber.)
The english added 2 troops and a plane from india in first round and comes with 2 more each round after and are maybe going to land some planes to destroy the german mediteranian fleet .

Without a english factory the germans with an average 1 surviving transport , and dedication of some planes would soon be able to fight down the remaning english troops.
The conseqense that both africa and india is lost (for the moment- until transport lands troops in algier/vestafrica).
With an english counter attack and a factory in south africa germany is in a process of being trown out of africa from round 1, without ever getting it !!!

In the big picture it means (again every thing is most likely – dices are tricky- we all know) that giving up india secures africa, and as soon as the germans are out, the english can be back on the asian front (or the east front), but with the economic strenght of african ipc and a egypt factory too. And mean while germany have not get the IPC’s from africa which means they miss infantery on the east front! This have released more russian troops to delay the the japanese.

Summary. To go total for egypt is an gambit, there can give advantage by diceluck, or by the opponent not responding with a south african factory. The moving of the german fleet makes it unlikely that the german would have the posibility to send more than 2 troops to africa the next round(s) .

There is this lesser german 1 round attack on egypt, not including the transport, but often with a fighter and then the libyan armour and infantery. Assuming a standard german purchase of 8 inf and 1 transport, this is more tricky because the german player is, no matter outcome of that attack and counterattack on egypt threatening to attack with 6 inf and a fighter in round 2 , assuming he got the sub when taking out the english fleet. This is more close to the safe standard german first round build up.

Any idea and opininon on that subject is very velcome , but I will wait adressing the lesser attack on egypt later. Just going to mention the defensive move of troops from india to kenya/rhodesia I would like to here if anyone have played that with an S. African factory as a response to a succesfull lesser german egypt attack .

with regards
jondifool

no need for a transport, one fighter or bomber sways the battle in your favor.

just pray japan takes india.

A comment to what I adress as the Standard german start move.
Of cause you don’t put 8 inf in africa if not needed. The point is you have the ability too do it. Flexibility is very important. German can counter a lot of moves, with that.
2 transport in the mediteranian, (with a german standard first turn)is not going to ferry 4 troops to africa every turn in the game (but sometimes they ferry troops the other way, flexibility !!). But the ability to do it, can discourage allies a few more rounds to make an africa landing from the atlantic. It certainly should discourage england from do an early factory setup in africa.

Now to the argument about the value of the investments in 2 factorys with england compared to the african ipc value of 10.
Here it’s important to understand that every teritory taken and kept is worth twice as much, because the enemy does not have them.
10 to england and minus 10 to germany= worth 20 in one round!! worth a factory ?

the second factory in egypt is often not needed for the taking of africa. But its valuable for puting presure on the asian front, getting back from the indian set back.

if germany have lost africa in turn one (happends in around 1/3 of the cases!) the 2 factorys in turn 1 and 2 would make a persian front in turn 4, with 4 armors rolling in each turn.

if germany gets egypt scratced then the counterattack and a south african factory givis england an immidiatly edge in the african battle, at the cost of an indian factory, but with a russia with less presure from germany, and later an possible asian front, from persia. (also around 1/3 cases)

If germany gets egypt with 1 or zero losses, and still haves the abillity to gets troops to africa, england stays in India. And what germany got was an african take over accomplised 1 round earlyer than with a standard 1st round move.
(also roughly around 1/3 cases)

so we comes down to 1/3 cases there is clarly an disaster for germany and 1/3 cases there is just max 1 round faster in taking africa and then 1/3 cases there is unclear(at this stage in the argument)

so is this worth it. NO its not.
I think it is that simple as put by Yanny in the short version. And with analyzing and discussion, we might get more to agree on that!

And then to the case with an german egypt attack with only libyan troops (and maybe a fighter) and a shoot at the sub. this combined with the ability to ferry in 4 more troops in round 2 (in egybt if the sub is gone) to the 2 there lands in libya in round 1. Is this move usefull for germany ?
Is it worth it try to force England to choose between India and Africa, while still having abillity to land more troops in africa. Is the price to high! I rarely sees it played among my circle of friends , so I have not made up my mind on this. And defently would like to hear others opinions on this.

with regards
Jondifool.

Um u actually can’t attack the sub with the battleship (i think someone wrote that i may be mistaken its very late) because you can’t go through the suez canal unless you control both sides at the beginning of your turn which, unfortunately, germany does not.