I’ve been doing quite a bit of surfing around lately, reading up on different strategies and tactics people recommend. As you might guess, most of the (it seems to me) more knowledgeable people list basically the same moves, purchases, and goals, for each country.
All of which makes perfect sense of course, but left me wondering:
Do the more experienced players find their games vs. other experienced players follow a predictable path? It would seem to me it would almost have to; although chance might favor a risky gamble now and then, good players would more often come out ahead against such play.
All the reading I’ve done has left me with the ‘chess’ feeling, of being required to make certain moves (especially in the early game) almost regardless of what your opponent does. Of course, the game becomes more flexible as the turns go on, but I’ve seen strat guilds going into the 6th, 7th, and 8th turns =p
Anyway, the reason for this long ramble come down to this question, for the experts out there.
At what point in the game do you usually know (barring obscene rolls) you’ve won?
I’m sure that we could agree Germany not sinking a ship, yet losing all it’s planes on turn 1 would be disasterous; or russia attacking and losing every man - but during a standard game, with average dice, can anyone point to a specific battle, or territory, or time, when they say ‘Phew, I think i’ve got this one’.
I don’t know if this is a silly question on not, but for some reason I find it very interesting. =p
Some interesting questions, and i’ll do what i can, but i’m not nearly an expert.
And you’re right. Many of us regard this as lucky-chess. The first few move-counter moves are standard for many players. A deviation from these plays will net you a nasty loss pretty quickly often. There are maybe a handful of opening moves that will keep you alive beyond the first 3-4 turns against an expert, but not too many. A little creativity inside of this can take you far, and it really depends on what your experience has taught you “is a priority”. With bids, every game is slightly different too.
I do not necessarily know when i’ve won (usually when my opponant capitulates), but i feel secure when i can see that i’m 2 turns away from being invaded and i can prevent that in time, yet i’m knocking on the door and can visuallize a win 3 turns away or so. No absolute point on this, but i’d suggest that if you look at the Tourney Final under Games section, you might be feeling apprehensive for one of the players right now given that his capital is being marched on. Now he’ll last a few turns and (trust me) would pull something out of his ass, but if it were me, i’d be a little frightened.
And yes. Many times a particular battle is a do-or-die scenario. This is often when the Allies increase in purchasing power has come into play and is demonstrated in force, and Germany has just won/lost Karelia in a bloodbath. Something like this may cause Germany to sigh relief/cry.
For me, it will be an axis victory if moscow has fallen, and germany can still hold out in the next round. It will be allies victory if one of the axis power has fallen.
Usually in the net game vs experienced players, it will be allies victory also if Japan has lost its momentum against russia.
I don’t know if there is ever a point where I think I won/lost till a capital has fallen, but I do have some goals I shoot for where I know I’m at an advantage or disadvantage:
These are only a few things that may indicate who may win, but ultimately I feel it comes down to the economies. The quicker and longer the Axis can be over 70 IPC the better for them and there chances. And by 70, I mean Ger at about 28-30 and Jap at 40-45 or so. It does you no good if Jap is at 50+ and Ger is under 20, then the game is over.
I hope some of this help and I didn’t just ramble on.
…… that was long.
But I pretty much agree with SUD. Tech is an important part of the game. When your game can last (in a standstill, with the Allies slowly winning) for 50 turns, 5 or 10 IPCs isn’t going to hurt much. If you manage to get IC or Heavy Bombers, you can break that Standstill.
Great stuff folks, thanks!
My thoughts on the matter at hand…
These are not exhaustive, just some things I’ve noticed & have come to mind.
Obviously if an Axis power has fallen, odds are the Allies will win. Also if USSR falls, the Axis have a big advantage as well. But I think the original post was asking if there are any “early warning signs” the game might be in the bag…
I find if USSR is more or less intact by T4, this is a good indication the Allies will win. If the Axis haven’t taken at least 2 or 3 USSR territories by then, they probably never will…
If Japan has not taken all of China by T3, they are probably sunk, unless they have taken a lot of USSR…
If Germany or USSR ever loses all their FTRs that is baaad news for them & their allies!
I may be going out on a limb w/ these other ones but:
If Japan has no capital ships (CVs or BBs) & have not surrounded Moscow, the Axis will lose…
If UK has a BB left after T1, the Axis will lose…
If an Ally takes Eastern Europe & holds it for more than a turn, the Axis are in trouble…
And of course the classic: If the Axis meet one another in Persia or Iraq & remain in contact, the Axis will win…this one sure seems to work, but I don’t know exactly why!
Ozone27
“when axis meet in Persia, they won’t lose their inertia”
@cystic:
“when axis meet in Persia, they won’t lose their inertia”
…precisely! But why does that always seem to work? What does it mean when the Axis meet like that?
I thought of some others of a more humorous note:
1.) If Germany ever buys a capital ship (CV or BB) they are either just about to win, or just about to lose…
2.) The “Seppuku Maru” rule: if anyone ever purchases a BB, their side will lose…
3.) If Germany ever takes Great Britain, it means that all the players but you have left to go to the bar & you’d better go see what they are doing…
Ozone27
Haha. I have since become an expert tech-er. It should be learned by all players going to that final level of play. I also regarded it as a last-ditch effort, but if done carefully, it can be very potent, more potent even than taking Russia.
But…I’ve also formulated some nasty counters. Realizing the importance of tech for Japan can help balance the game, but isn’t an end-all be-all strategy.
Kobu
I agree that a technology advantage is a great help (2 IPC inf and Heavy bombers are most useful in my opinion).
:D
However, I’m not sure how one can counter tech. If Japan techs does the US also roll equallyt for tech to (hopefully) keep at the same level? Do you immediately attack Japan in Asia (or Germany in Europe) if they teched, hoping that their loss of inf., etc. by the cost of teching will set them back beyond repair before they can utilize the advantage they gain?
Any thoughts?
@Anonymous:
I agree that a technology advantage is a great help (2 IPC inf and Heavy bombers are most useful in my opinion).
:DHowever, I’m not sure how one can counter tech. If Japan techs does the US also roll equallyt for tech to (hopefully) keep at the same level? Do you immediately attack Japan in Asia (or Germany in Europe) if they teched, hoping that their loss of inf., etc. by the cost of teching will set them back beyond repair before they can utilize the advantage they gain?
Any thoughts?
It all depends on what the tech is, & when it appears in the game (and for whom)…
I’ve seen people get a totally cool technology & be unable to bring it to affect the game. I’ve also seen people get the exact tech they need right at a critical time & have it totally win the game for them. It all depends. All I can give are some examples that spring to mind…
There was one game where Japan trounced the entire USA fleet by T2 and had won absolute mastery of the Pacific. Then USA won “Long-range Aircraft” with a single roll. Using the aircraft, a few SUBs and a flotilla of TRs, he had mopped up the floor with Japan’s fleet and was seizing islands within a few turns–having purchased NO capital ships whatsoever. With LRA, he didn’t need carriers to move the aircraft and went on to dominate the Pacific…
There was another game where the Axis were doing well & were within a turn or 2 from Economic Victory. Trouble was pesky Allied forces kept siezing territories just to prevent the win so the game was temporarily stalled. Then USA got “Heavy Bombers”. It transformed the game–now it was a desperate race for the Axis to win before enough BMRs could be built to make a difference. No one was playing conservative, it was all-out attacks on all sides! The Axis eventually won, but Heavy Bombers had really livened up what would’ve been an otherwise tedious “land-trading” excercise…
Then there was another game where Germany was losing badly in Europe, went for broke & won “Industrial Tech”. Unfortunately this only had the effect of prolonging what would’ve been a very short game. Germany didn’t have enough IPCs to make Industrial tech count, so they were limited to just hoarding INF and staving off the inevitable…
Those are the ones that spring to mind. Seems the only sure way to beat tech is to win before the opponent can make use of it…
Ozone27
