Eh, playing it out a little. Couple things I thought I should put in the writeup in case players are interested.
First, probable end of game:
Currently end of J6.
6ec0661c-58b7-4b97-9368-e6d0f8d61634-image.png
Projected G8 vs Moscow: 98.6% capture. (Probably USSR gets a few more infantry than I put below, but whatever, it’s still some high percentage of success)
https://axis-and-allies-calculator.com/?rules=1942&battleType=land&roundCount=all&defInfantry=27&defArtillery=8&defTank=4&defAAGun=2&defFighter=12&defBomber=1&attInfantry=41&attArtillery=17&attTank=9&attFighter=6
Japan has a 5 inf 3 art 1 tank 7 fighter 1 bomber followup.
I did a writeup some time ago (not this thread, but an article with numbers and probability distributions and other such things) about Germany pushing Ukraine, West Russia, then Caucasus in that order, where (among other things) I wrote UK attempting to hold India too long is a mistake. This picture is a pretty graphical illustration why, plus various other points I mentioned earlier in this thread are pretty starkly illustrated too.
First, again, this is an atypical game; Axis didn’t get much in the way of crucial battle bad luck which had an aggregate effect over turns of making Axis stronger than expected, Allies tried a lot of greedy plays and got bad dice, which also had an aggregate effect, and I also think Allies simply tried a lot of stuff that didn’t have good mathematical percentages. Not that I’m saying Allies were strictly “wrong” to do so; sometimes players should test opponents, and maybe the Allied player had different risk preferences and strategic outlook, but nevertheless when looking at the hard numbers I think there’s something to be said about Allied misplays. (Probably Axis misplays too come to think on it, but being the Axis player I don’t know what my mistakes were offhand. A lot of games I don’t pay attention, and even this game I was pretty rusty, but at least I think I avoided any too-obvious blunders?)
Anyways -
Germany will almost certainly capture Moscow, and if anything the Axis could just keep drawing out the game because the Allies are well and truly cut off from Moscow; the percentages will keep getting worse for Moscow and better for Axis.
Something I’ve written a lot about is “stack building and bleeding”; I had a whole article series planned but that’s another story. Anyways, with the calculated projection above you can see the expected IPC swing is around 120 in favor of Axis.
Suppose I cut 10 infantry off that projection, which could easily have been the case if Allies made better decisions (and perhaps had a lot better luck but I digress.) The IPC swing changes to 50, and the win percentage drops to 67.7%.
When I say stacks are important, this is why. When I write about timings, this is why. If the Allies attempt to defend Moscow and things go as fairly expected, the Allies in one shot lose the equivalent of around two turns of income - counting USSR, UK, and US. Not even accounting for ongoing stack issues, local production, strategy, or tactics, that’s a big big loss.
So if Allies are going to almost certainly lose, then what should Allies do instead? Obviously, not fight.
But look at the board. What do the Allies do? If the Allied Moscow stack moves towards India via Kazakh, Germany crushes the Allied major stack anyways from Caucasus.
So the Allies should hit northeast Asia. A major Allied stack will roll over Japan’s thinly spread forces and won’t face serious resistance until hitting the coast.
But this means Germany rolls over India, then with Moscow, Caucasus, and India in Axis hands, the Axis eventually clean up Asia. Almost certainly Axis win on victory cities, but even if no victory cities would win in the end anyways.
But not if the Allies can somehow stop cleanup of Asia; typically this means a pretty developed KJF. On this board, though, the Allies tried KGF, and really don’t have position to do much.
But imagine if UK abandoned India early. The Allied Moscow stack would last longer, giving the Allies more time to develop counterpressure against Germany. Losing India is bad, but given other considerations, the Allies shouldn’t fight a losing major-stack engagement, but that’s inevitable one way or another if India is held. So, abandon India.
But if UK moves India stack to Persia, Germany crushes it from Caucasus? And the Allies really don’t even want to lose a mid-stack battle?
Of course. Which is why India must be abandoned before the German stack hits Caucasus. Not even just before, but a turn before that; the India stack must be on Persia, then Germany moves into West Russia, then India stack to Kazakh, Germany into Cacuasus, India stack moves safely to Moscow.
Few other wee points I’ll bring up - but before that, and this bears repeating, I’m saying most games shouldn’t play out like this. A unit or two more or less in a position changes probable outcomes, and often things are wildly different just off one or two units more or less. So where I point out tactical and strategic choices, it’s not that I’m saying Axis should always do such and such, but there’s a lot of different wee tricks in the Axis arsenal, and these are just a few.
So far some of the major lines of play I mentioned for Japan are major stack shifting (where Japan tries early to increase its unit count in Asia to the point where it becomes the major Axis stack controller), positional play (where Japan uses air against KGF to threaten Allied choices so they’re pressured into more restricted lines of play than they would otherwise have freedom to make.) But in this game, you can also see the positional ground play, which I haven’t brought up much in articles.
Some years ago, Black Elk wrote the best logistic line Japan takes towards Moscow is, via transport, Tokyo-Yunnan-Szechwan-Kazakh, and perhaps there was some discussion over Kazakh being similar for Japan as West Russia is to Germany. And apparently now there’s this whole meta thing where Allies stack Kazakh; it’s inconvenient for Allies to have multiple stacks, but if Kazakh breaks then Allies have to split defense and it just gets unpleasant.
But I prefer the Buryatia-Yakut-Evenki line. The reason is practical logistics.
For Japan I find “single optimal line through Yunnan” very restrictive. Deviate one territory, and Japan adds another whole turn to its route. The Allies know exactly what’s coming, and it’s only coming down one path.
Contrast with Evenki. If USSR pushes to hold Evenki, that’s further from Moscow and closer to Tokyo than Kazakh. By fighting there, Allies stretch Allied logistics lines while shortening Japan’s.
But if USSR does not push to Evenki, then Japan can hit Archangel, Vologda, and Novosibirsk; Sinkiang too at need. I’m not saying Japan should not drop to Yunnan; that line still pressures Kazakh. But I’m saying instead of just pressing Kazakh, I think Japan should consider dropping to the north as well, especially either after India is captured, or if Axis won’t be in a position to capture India soon.
From Archangel too, Japan can trickle infantry into Karelia, which can help an Axis hold. But the interesting thing is a few Japanese infantry accompanied by massed Japanese tanks. The Allies can threaten any mass infantry push with attacks-with-intent-to-retreat (though even that comes at some cost). But the Allies find it very hard to stop tanks blitzing from Evenki to Karelia, which can be a big boost to holding that position - and Japanese tanks are far cheaper than fighters.
Of course, personally I like fighters as I use them in various ways, but in certain circumstances tanks are a consideration.
Speaking of fighters, I’ve written elsewhere about Japanese fighters on Karelia, but it’s important to realize Axis typically should not leave anything in one spot for long. I moved German tanks to Karelia to help hold it, then I moved German tanks to Ukraine to help hold it, in typical KGF games I’d expect to move German tanks to Baltic States later too.
Similarly, Japanese fighters don’t just stay on Karelia; they shift around to Ukraine, West Russia, Caucasus, France, to help Germany hold position and to threaten Allied shipping, and this happens constantly.
“If air is so great then I’ll just build German air” - not really. A German bomber can help in Africa and has range to hit Allies in north Atlantic and Mediterranean, true. But the point I made earlier about Germany losing 10 infantry, well, a bomber costs 4 infantry. A lot of small decisions where Germany is looking at the shiny “bling” means Germany is not working to Germany’s strengths, which are largest starting Axis stack, high income, and high production. Instead of trying to fight the Allies on their own ground (UK/US have a load of income combined), instead Germany builds on its own strengths for as long as it can, then transitions if necessary.
Really that’s just how the numbers work and how the game often plays out. If a Germany player builds 2 tanks on G1, then they’ll have 4 infantry less on the final push. That’s just how it is. On the other hand, if a Germany player builds 2 tanks on Berlin on G3, then those tanks can hit Moscow on G5, where German infantry on Berlin wouldn’t reach. That’s also just how it is. Early infantry, late tanks. And the more Germany bleeds out to get all these cool flash in the pan things that are admittedly useful, the less fundamental boots on the ground Germany has for the crucial major stack battles.
I am not saying G1 11 infantry 2 artillery is the ultimate build. Different situations should use different builds. But I am saying instead of players just boringly saying “this is the meta I must build this and nothing else I don’t need to think I don’t need to look at the board I don’t need to do anything but build what the meta says and do what the meta says I should do” - that’s how players lose!
Germany never built a single air unit for the entire game. That’s part of the reason Germany’s stacks are huge.
But here, Japan built a load of air. Lost 2 fighters on UK1, will end J6 with 9 fighters 2 bombers 9 transports. And unlike some players that just buy things and don’t use them, in this game Japan controls almost all of Asia, hit Alaska, and so forth. The raw ground count of Japan is not high, but Japan’s strength is in flexibility; precise application of power using transports and air where needed for maximum effect.
The sea zone south of Persia is often neglected as a carrier/fighter spot for Japan, but this spot does many good things. Fighters in that sea zone can reach Karelia to reinforce, hit India, hit Moscow, hit the sea zone south of France, and various points in between; navy in the sea zone can reach the Southern Europe sea zone if both sides of the canal are controlled, the sea zone is adjacent to both sides of the canal so the Axis can land units to try to control the canal in the first place, etc.
Karelia, and really everywhere, is a trap for Japan considering turn order. Germany moves, then UK, then Japan. So if Germany abandons a position, then UK can strike before Germany can move to safety. Imagine if Japan landed 4 fighters on Karelia; if Germany wanted to move its Karelia stack away to threaten Moscow, then UK could land units and crush Japanese fighters at little cost.
Yet, the fact that Japan lands fighters can make a position tenable - in fact, this is how the Axis really secure territory in Europe early on; the numbers just don’t support Germany making an unsupported push in most games.
So Axis must plan carefully to move Axis air around safely. It can get very weird.
On this board, for example, Germany had 6 fighters on Karelia, using 3 fighters from Ukraine (where they threatened West Russia and were part of a threat that pressured Allies to retreat from West Russia) in Africa, and 3 fighters from Karelia (ditto) to trade NW Europe. In their new positions, those German fighters couldn’t threaten Moscow, but with West Russia abandoned Germany didn’t care; Germany wanted to wait for a 10-stack of German infantry to join Germany’s main stack at Caucasus next turn before seriously attacking Moscow. So German fighters moving off station this turn is no real problem.
Japan has a bomber that it uses to threaten Western Canada, and two fighters in Western Europe now. Having those Axis units in place reduces the burden on Germany to have ground units in place to defend France, which leaves more for Berlin. If the Allies are really passive, Germany may even purchase Berlin bombers to support the attack on Moscow.
But Japan needs those fighters to pressure India, which still isn’t captured? Eventually, sure. But Japan doesn’t really have the infantry support needed to support an attack as it is, and any premature commitment by Japan could see all of Moscow’s fighters flying to India while the Moscow stack runs away, especially as the Allies can’t really defend Moscow well anyways. Then Japan can do nothing but waste time.
In closing, Japan has an IC on East Indies, which normally I don’t like as it requires tying up Japanese transports. But in this game, a Manchuria IC would be 3 spaces from Evenki or Kazakh, and wouldn’t manage to put sustained pressure on India, and Japan had a lot of transports, a lot of income, and not a lot of ways to spend income to begin with.
I really don’t like purchasing Japanese ICs, but looking at the board it can be seen how thinly spread Japanese ground forces are. If I just bought more and more air, at some point Japan would be trading air for ground, and that’s just no good. So, an IC, and given the particular circumstances of this game, East Indies. Though again, rather the exception than the rule.