Germany is definitely in bad shape at the beginning of the game. If Russia did the right thing first round (and had a reasonable amount of luck in rolls), then Germany has no Baltic fleet, lost its Atlantic submarine, faces an additional transport in the UK waters, and lost either Eastern Europe or the Ukraine. Needless to say, an assault on Karelia is not feasible, the Finland group is isolated and destined to be picked off by the UK, and Germany faces imminent amphibious assault on several territories.
Given this worst-case scenario, Germany cannot expect a quick victory. The key to a long-term win for the Axis lies in Germany’s ability to maximize its productive efficiency and prosecute a one-front war.
Purchases: 4 tanks, 1 fighter; Germany will need a fighter to help deter UK naval buildup. The armor is to mount instant offensive pressure against the Soviets.
First round: Germany devotes a bomber and two fighters to the UK fleet, one fighter to the Canadian transport, the battleship and transport against the Gibraltar battleship, and its fourth fighter to the Egyptian invasion. The odds for all three naval battles favor the Axis, and the fourth fighter must assist in Africa in order to swing that battle in Germany’s favor. Germany will also retake the eastern European territory captured by Russia. If Russia took Finland, then Russia made a mistake, and Germany can either attack Karelia or Caucasus. The reason for the naval battles is clear; leave any Allied presence in the Atlantic after the first round and the Allies will have buffer protection for any transports they add. The reason for a first-round Egyptian invasion is also clear; Germany needs to increase its income to 36 IPC’s while eliminating British forces which could potentially fortify India (a key territory in Asia).
Long-term: After winning in Egypt, Germany basically has a good chance of overrunning Africa. Africa is not actually very important to Germany because it has low yield per turn – Germany can only gain about 2 or 3 IPC’s per turn in Africa, and adding troops to Africa from Europe does not increase this yield. Troops are needed in Europe, not in Africa. It is a huge mistake to build an IPC in Africa. All of Germany’s income must be spent on continental Europe. Landing the bomber in France gives it range to attack an Eastern U.S. fleet, and its four fighters after round one can easily knock out any UK fleet built in one round. With its west flank secure, Germany can shift most of its forces east, attacking en masse and compelling the infantry heavy Russian forces to counterattack at a disadvantage. If attack-counterrattack continues with Germany’s armor and airforce giving it offensive superiority, then Russia will be unable to retake karelia after three rounds. Germany and Japan should be in a position to win an economic victory after four or five rounds of play.
