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Author Topic: How do you respond to Sea Lion threat as UK?  (Read 4802 times)
Feds10
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« Reply #15 on: November 16, 2006, 10:41:45 pm »
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if germany builds that many tranny's....game is OVER. firstly...the Allies will certainly re-take england thanks to american aid...but i highly doubt they could even take it anyways...defense always has the advantage. furtherm ore...the more germany throws at it...the worse continental europe gets for germany. send airforce? go right ahead lol that AA gun will make the Luftwaffe into nothing...in the end..even if germany takes it..they're finished in Europe. Russia now has secured all her first round territories, America is still untouched, Britain....well...Britain is living in shock.  just imagine how good the Russian player must feel though, they have Karelia still, Archangel is untouchable for 2 turns minimum, Ukraine is in their hands (either by R1 or R2) west russia is taken, Belorussia is taken, Eastern is in serious trouble and the balkans is next to go...thats 7 IPC swing in favour of Russia...not to mention whats gonna happen next turn n the turn after. you'll be looking at Germany holding onto dear life with Southern Europe n Germany...down 13 IPC's (Eastern taken...Balkans taken) TO THE RUSSIANS!!! that means that russia is up 13 IPC's (w/o japan's takeaways).

if germany was to do anything of that sort..they would have to sacrifice the AC for 2 tranny's...gives you more mobility with troops... and u can move them to Karelia and norways quicktime


Overall...i'd laugh at this Axis strategy...your asking for an Allied beatdown on Germany. If germany manages to hold England for more then 2 turns though..then the tide has turned in a huge way.


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JLord
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« Reply #16 on: November 17, 2006, 08:19:17 am »
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Well I wouldn't go that far...  If Germany does succesfully take England, then they get around 38 IPC.  This would be an extra 12 inf to drop down in Europe.  Plus you would seriously delay any invasion attempts of the mainland.  US would have to retake, but UK would still be in constant danger and would eat up a lot of US resources.  In the meantime you could probably drop down a build of 12-16 tanks, or 16 inf, and start marching East.  This would be enough to at least turn the tide of the Eastern front back in Germany's favour.  So I'm not saying the chances are great, but if Germany does take UK, I feel they have a nice advantage.
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Bunnies P Wrath
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« Reply #17 on: November 17, 2006, 11:50:16 am »
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First, you should join the Yahoo group "caspian sub", and read Policy Paper 13 (ish).  It describes a possible and implementable threat on London by German transports.  It's really pretty good.  But BE SURE TO READ THE LIMITATIONS LISTING, because there are circumstances under which you shouldn't even try any kind of Sea Lion (Russia fighters at Moscow is one)

Second, with either carrier/3 transports, or a 5 transpot build, Germany is dead.  There are different ways the Germans can take advantage of a super heavy Baltic naval build, including holding Norway and using it as a reliable fighter base, helping to protect Western Europe, and bridging infantry straight from Germany to Karelia.  Also, Germany can do a very strong Atlantic stall, and any UK plans are delayed because of the forced defense of London.  But these advantages are far outweighted (in my opinion) by the fact that there are no German infantry builds on G1, which are really needed pretty badly in the initial turns.

Say that first turn, the Germans had an African bid, so can afford to take Anglo-Egypt without using the Mediterranean transport, and that the Med transport instead heads west along with the German battleship and unites with the German Atlantic sub and perhaps 1-2 German fighters to attack the UK battleship at Gibraltar (also say the Germans take Gibraltar with 1 infantry for various reasons I will not go into here).  Also say the Germans built 5 transports in the Baltic.

Now, I am going to ASSUME that Russian fighters are NOT in range of London.  I am going to assume that the Russian fighters are parked at Caucasus.  See following.

The German threat on London on G2 is 6 transports from the Baltic (say it's unstoppable), and 1 transport/battleship support shot from the Mediterranean that can be stopped with a Russian sub.  (Say that the Russian sub joins the UK battleship/transport on Russia 1; the Russian sub can then go to the sea zone west of Algeria on Russia 2 to block the German battleship and transport from helping in the battle).

So, as Germany, you can count on 6 inf 6 tank 5-6 fighter and a bomber.  Let us assume the best case scenario, that Russia did not take any territory that had a German fighter in it on Russia 1.  (You COULD also say that is NOT the best case scenario, because Russia committing enough forces to take a territory with a German fighter in it has its own particular problems).

Now, the UK can see the attack coming a mile away.  So it builds 5 inf 3 tanks and moves over the tank from E. Canada.  This is not enough against a determined German attack, so the US can send in its two Eastern US transports on US1.

So now the attacking force is 6 inf 6 tank 6 fighter 1 bomber.  Defending force is 2 bomber (1 UK, 1 US), 9 inf (2 start in London, 5 are built on UK1, 2 come from the US), 2 art (1 UK, 1 US) 5 tank (1 starts in London, 1 from E. Canada, 3 built), 3 fighter (2 UK, 1 US), plus AA gun.  Count the artillery as infantry for the purposes of defense, and you have

6 inf 6 tank 6 fighter 1 bomber

vs

2 bomber 11 inf 5 tank 3 fighter AA gun

Ohit 46, dhit AA gun plus 51.

Now there's this whole balance thing with the AA gun, because if you attack and lose 2 or more fighters to AA fire, you are attacking 40 into 51, and if the opponent chooses to kill the bombers to be safe, Germany is probably not going to take London, and the Germans will be out their starting infantry build AND two fighters, which is just too much to recover from, I believe.  If you even lose ONE fighter to AA gun, the chances in London are still not that great.

Only after calculating the possible straight out losses due to the AA gun should you start to calculate the possibility that no German air will die to AA and the subsequent attack on London.  But even then, you're sending 46 at 51.  Not bad at all, given the skew of the units.  But hardly a sure thing, or even close to a sure thing, considering the fact that Germany sacrificed its entire first turn build to get that point and took an enormous chance in even trying to invade London in the first place.

--

At this point, I will mention that if the Russian fighters were in range of London, Germany will fail any invasion attempt of London.  Pushing the 51 up to 59 skews the London attack so far in favor of the Allies, well, let's just say it's pretty skewed.

--

But of course, the Germans do not have to butt heads against London at all.  They can potentially unite the gigantic Baltic fleet with the Mediterranean fleet on G2, and use that fleet to cruise around making trouble for the Allies.  But if the Germans unite the fleet, those transports won't be used to bridge infantry from Germany to Karelia, making the German front that much weaker.  And really, there is only so much Germany can do with those transports.  Trying to invade the US, trying to mess around with Brazil, setting up a threat by transport drop to Archangel, protecting Norway/Western Europe - all nice, but those do not really offset the fact (I believe) that Germany doesn't have those early reinforcements against Russia.

--

What are the POSSIBILITIES of a G1 heavy transport build?  What possibilities for victories exist with that plan?

First, the US is forced to build ground reinforcements to UK on US1, because of the possibility of 5 MORE German transports on G2.  So the Allies cannot really go turbo KJF in response to Germany's transport build.  If Germany decisively takes London, then switches to pure infantry for Berlin and Rome, Russia WILL be knocking on Berlin's door, but will be forced back.  So combine the fact of the mighty German fleet with the fact that the US is pretty much forced to sacrifice two transports early to reinforce London, and the game becomes at least playable for Germany.  Since Japan cannot be immediately threatened, and Germany's Atlantic game is strong, the Axis can make a play for Africa, and try to stall the Allies out in the Atlantic and/or Pacific until Moscow falls.

The problem is, though, that Russia has so much early territory that it has to be slowly pushed back from, so it can use the advance time plus resource gain to build even more units that Germany has to fight through to win Moscow.

--

Second, is the G2 transport build, or the Canadian Shield (Caspian Sub paper 14, I think, be sure to read the LIMITATIONS on the paper).
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Novosibirsk
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« Reply #18 on: November 17, 2006, 11:53:05 am »
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NewPaintbrush

^^ can we get the condensed version of that post ^^

Sheesh  grin smiley undecided  sad tongue evil
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DarthMaximus
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« Reply #19 on: November 17, 2006, 01:00:59 pm »
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NewPaintbrush

^^ can we get the condensed version of that post ^^

Sheesh¬  grin smiley undecided¬  sad tongue evil

 smiley

Sure.  Sea Lion scare doesn't work against a good opponent.
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Bunnies P Wrath
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« Reply #20 on: November 17, 2006, 05:04:47 pm »
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NewPaintbrush

^^ can we get the condensed version of that post ^^

Sheesh  grin smiley undecided  sad tongue evil

That WAS the short version.

O RLY?

Crack pipe rly!
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ncscswitch
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« Reply #21 on: November 17, 2006, 05:41:07 pm »
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LOL!

"Sea Lion Scare"  Glad to see that the 'concept' from that test game last year has stuck with you Darth!

Yep, the main thing that I took forward from that game, and into Revised and all the strategy discussions since, is that Sea Lion REALLY is only just a "scare".  Sea Lion in the early rounds is NOT a real threat by Germany.  Any moves in that direction are just a "scare" to slow down UK and make them play more conservative.  Any REAL effort by Germany to make Sea Lion a reality turns the game into a 2-turn dice game... one that Germany loses far more often than not.
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Cobert
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« Reply #22 on: November 17, 2006, 05:49:54 pm »
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I was told a story once about a quite experienced player that actually managed to lose Britain in the 4th round.  I dont know how it happened exactly, but I know the german player stayed very calm and slipped the Japanese player a note explaining that he could take Britain and telling him how he needed to help.
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Feds10
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« Reply #23 on: November 17, 2006, 09:55:03 pm »
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Cobert, do you know what the japanese player did?

i think that Japan has to play it's part as well if germany was to successfully take England...but i agree that overall it's jsut a scare tactic.

but taking England on G4 does sound reasonable...probably one heck of a german player too lol


i still stick with the 8 INF  1 AC buy for g1...but after reading these i'm starting to consider a 8inf 2 tranny build on g1...all i know is i wanna find a way to effectively get more tranny's (maybe 1 or 2 more) in the baltic....it moves troops from germany into russia farther...and protects norway much better. i jsut can't will myself to compromise Europe to the Russians lol


The UK can't do much else to respond to the sea lion threat then build infantry on the homeland....and hope for american help...they also hope that Russia gets some darn good dice so that they can cruise through europe with minimal problems.

Man, I love this game cool

 Feds 10
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DarthMaximus
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« Reply #24 on: November 17, 2006, 10:20:06 pm »
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LOL!

"Sea Lion Scare"¬  Glad to see that the 'concept' from that test game last year has stuck with you Darth!


It really is probably the best way to discribe it.

As you said, barring great dice or an oversight (or bad play) by your opponent, it simply should not work often enough to be a viable everyday strat.

Even if you can get the odds to 50-50, why be happy with that?  Especially in rd 1 or 2.
A 50-50 shot to end the game in rd 10 may be worth it, but in rd 2?
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Cobert
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« Reply #25 on: November 18, 2006, 09:54:54 am »
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Cobert, do you know what the japanese player did?

Unfortunately, no.  Probably just movinghis planes in position so in his next turn he could land them on britain.
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ncscswitch
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« Reply #26 on: November 18, 2006, 09:59:04 am »
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The earliest Japan can get AF to London is J3, and then only 3 FIGs and a BOM (the FIGs that start in FIC and in SZ37).  Even that requires a secure LZ for J2 in Egypt, which is a pretty iffy thing in most games.  Otherwise only 2 FIGs can make it to London by J3, using the AC in SZ37 as an interim LZ in SZ34.
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ncscswitch
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« Reply #27 on: November 18, 2006, 10:14:01 am »
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I have just run some numbers for a G2 Sea Lion attempt by Germany, in a "best case" scenario for Germany.

Assumptions:
5 TRN build on G1.
NO FIGs lost by Germany in turn 1 (not likely, but still assumed it)
Med Fleet moves west and is able to participate in the landing
No Allied fleet blocking eithr Baltic or Med Fleet units.
UK built all INF and did not attack at all, and kept their Navy safely out of range.
US sent 1 FIG, 1 BOM, 2 INF, 1 ART, 1 ARM to UK.

Even with Germany having the ability to land 14 land units (7 INF, 7 ARM), 6 FIGs, 1 BOM, and a BB shot, the chance of taking London on G2 is...
16.2%

But again, that assumes that Germany lost NO AF on turn 1, that ALL FIGs land in Western or Norway on G1 so as to be in range of London, and that the Med Fleet sailed West, destroyed the UK BB without loss, AND that the US did not block the Med Fleet. 

And if the US does go to Africa, blocking the Med Fleet and leaving UK to its own defenses (other than 1 US FIG and BOM to London on US1), it is STILL only a 29% win for Germany.  And to get that, they pretty much have to give up Egypt on G1, and they use almost 100% of their ARM, and they DO use 100% of their AF in the attempt.

I am sorry, but for a less than 1 in 3 chance to win early, the cost of a Sea Lion attempt with a 5 TRN buy on G1 is simply too high... it is a cost of Germany LOSING the game when they fail to take London on G2.

Lastly, even if they DO take London on G2, the US can counter on US2, and the Brits can move into the Med from the Indian Ocean, finish kicking the Germans out of Africa, and also possibly reinforce the Russians in Ukraine and/or Balkans.  Germany MAY get London's income, but they cannot keep it.  And if they try to do so, the Americans will simply keep hammering them, while Russia solidifies a VERY advanced position in Central Europe.

Final Note:  Raiding 30ish IPC's from UK is NOT worth the cost in AF and land units needed. 
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Cmdr Jennifer
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« Reply #28 on: November 18, 2006, 10:28:53 am »
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All this thread really does is remind Veterans that they have to leave a few land units in England until the German navy is completely destroyed.
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Bunnies P Wrath
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« Reply #29 on: November 18, 2006, 06:04:47 pm »
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German transports in the Baltic are a worthy option.  Just not five on G1, though.  That's a bit much.

"Final Note:  Raiding 30ish IPC's from UK is NOT worth the cost in AF and land units needed. "

Depends on how much was actually necessary to invest - that is, it depends on whether or not it was actually a worst-case invasion of London scenario.

Really, UK loses 30 IPC, Germany gains 38 IPC (30 from UK's income, plus 8 more for capturing the territory itself).  Net gain 68, quite good, so it is worth something to risk an attack on London.  That's why a G1 Sea Lion with Long Range Aircraft tech roll is worth considering; you invest heavily on tech rolls and lose fighters, but that 68 IPC difference lets Germany fight longer.
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