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Author Topic: Germany Invades London Round 2 (Not Sea Lion  (Read 477 times)
El_Capitan49
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« on: July 16, 2017, 04:03:06 pm »
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A friend an I were playing through a "practice" game of a&a, discussing strategy for each side. We took some ideas and concepts from Germany and UK turn one strategies from Charlemagne on Youtube (Not allowed to post links), as far as I can tell they are pretty basic openings.

(along with a few of the other powers, but those two are most important)

As Germany, I did not do the Graf Zeppelin build and ignored the destroyer. Instead I built a fighter, along with tons of infantry and artillery in Germany for the eastern front. My question is, how often does Great Britain either wait until round 2 to build the fleet, place their fleet in the northern sea zone, or not build any land/air units on London? The reason for this is come round 2, playing as Germany, I took London (we played the second round twice to be sure) even when america saw it in time, there is no way they can liberate it and keep Japan in check. So here is how it went:

Germany turn one was very similar to the video (except for Graf Zeppelin mentioned above). The fighters returned to the western coast, along with a few fighters moving from the east to the coast in the non-combat move.

Great Britain had no combat except sending in their air force/remaining ships to wipe out Germany's remaining ships bordering UK. They fortified india, and started with a small fleet North of Great Britain. They also moved the tank and infantry from Canada into Great Britain.

Assuming the US saw UK's vulnerability, they withdrew a good amount of their fleet from the Pacific to the atlantic.

Now it's turn 2 for Germany. I sent all of my Luftwaffe into the UK (Literally everything) along with a tank and artillery loaded from Africa (In the transport was used to claim Gibraltar). Those are the only 2 land units. With the UK fleet in the north, that leaves the south sea zone open for the African Troops to march in, along with an off-shore bombardment from the battleship). We simulated this battle twice to be sure, but both times Germany took London, with one tank sitting on it. This leaves Germany with all of UK's money from previous round, plus 8 more IPCs from London, ending the Round with about 50-60 IPCs to build a fleet to counter the US, because the US cannot reach London in this round.

*It's important to note that with the Indian fleet, Great Britain either fortified their destroyer I ignored in the Mediterranean or moved to Africa, not the suicide mission from the video. That left Japan open to attack the Pearl Harbor Fleet on round 2 and decimate it.

*It's also important to note that Germany built a fighter for the Russian front on turn one. It would've been better to build a bomber that can reach London.

So, too me, that seems way too easy and unlikely to occur in an actual game. So back to the question at the top, when you guys play as UK do you Build an Air Force/Fleet in the southern sea zone on turn one?

(Apologies for the lack of description on territory/sea zone names, the Board is not mine, so I don't have it in front of me.)
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TheBeninator
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« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2017, 05:23:53 pm »
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Interesting idea, sounds like a pretty reasonable approach. I would imagine the drawback is that you give away your plan on G1 by staging all of your airforce in WE or France. That allows UK1 to drop infantry in UK to keep themselves safe.

Your question of whether UK drops ships in N. UK seazone, S. UK seazone, or nothing at all really depends on Germany's opening.

You have a point though that if the UK drops nothing in the UK then they are pretty screwed. I would never drop a fleet in southern UK on turn 1 because it will get blown out of the water. I could almost see building G1 ships as a great ploy to this strategy (no transports). It will give the UK the impression that Germany wants to be a big naval power in the Atlantic, therefore the UK will probably hold on to IPCs to have a strong T2 naval drop. This means more IPCs for you when the 1 transport invasion of UK occurs. The G1 ships serve no purpose other than a ruse.

Even without the ships, this threat to the UK is at least worth delaying UK for a turn (causing them to drop units in the UK) simply by flying all your aircraft to WE.

On a side note, you should not be able to get the UK infantry from north america into the UK on turn 1, that is 2 moves.

Cool idea
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craykirk
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« Reply #2 on: July 19, 2017, 11:28:58 pm »
+1

I also don't believe you can have an Armor and Artillery on a single transport.  Two Infantry or one Infantry and one mechanized unit only.
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Cow
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« Reply #3 on: July 20, 2017, 11:54:19 am »
+1

Map so busted you don't even need to buy naval to take UK g2
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IKE
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« Reply #4 on: July 20, 2017, 01:27:57 pm »
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How many planes are you losing to take it though? 

It's been awhile since I played but UK player typically buys two fighters in London.
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TheBeninator
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« Reply #5 on: July 20, 2017, 03:01:00 pm »
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How many planes are you losing to take it though? 

It's been awhile since I played but UK player typically buys two fighters in London.

True, but normally the starting fighters go to Russia, netting you only 2 fighters in the UK. Another thing to note is typically US will land their bomber in UK on US1, so that is another pip to the side of the defenders.

Assuming no extra drops in UK and no additional aircraft on Germany's part, it is roughly a 50/50 shot at taking UK G2. This will cost most of your planes, and you may end up losing UK on a UK2 counter from Canada (assuming the tank and infantry as left there).

I think this plan has a pretty narrow margin for profit and requires A) The UK to not realize what you are up to and B) a bit of luck (or additional bombers on G1). I could see the benefit of always using the same Germany opener, planning on the eastern front march, then just waiting to see what UK does.

If they know what you are up to, then you have provoked the purchase of landlocked units in the UK, which is less to contend with on the water or in India.
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Cow
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« Reply #6 on: July 21, 2017, 01:28:48 am »
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If I am UK I am buying a fighter or two, have to calc it out
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Argothair
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« Reply #7 on: July 21, 2017, 03:37:58 pm »
+1

It's a very interesting strategy, and I think it deserves further exploration! I hope someone plays it against me as Britain, so I can test it out. smiley

I think the attack certainly works very well if you achieve total surprise.

German Naval Problems

What if your opponent sees it coming? One initial problem with this "low-investment" G2 attack on London is that without a Baltic fleet build, the Allies can either shoot down or lock in your sole remaining transport near Gibraltar. If you move the German Med fleet to the east coast of Gibraltar (inside the Med), then the Allies can send a sacrificial destroyer (either British or American, whichever survives) to the west coast of Gibraltar, and now you can't get to the coast of the UK until your non-combat move of G2. You could try to knock out both destroyers with your 2 German subs, but you only have about 36% odds to wipe out both destroyers, and you're increasing the risk that the American transports will survive. On the other hand, if you move the German Med fleet to the west coast of Gibraltar, you have to do that on G1 non-combat (after you've sunk the British cruiser in the Western Med), so you will not wind up owning Gibraltar, so the USA will be able to attack your BB with 1 ftr + 1 bmr (60% odds for Americans to sink your transport). So it's not guaranteed that you'll be able to set up the G2 attack at all; you might have no transports in range of London.

What Germany Gives Up to Setup the G2 London Attack

I agree that it is relatively easy on G1 for Germany to land its entire air force in range of London on G2. I think the real cost for the German war machine is sending the Mediterranean fleet to take Gibraltar on G1, which I see as suboptimal. The only way you can get Gibraltar is by using your transport, so now you are not attacking Egypt G1, and you are not reinforcing Libya on G1, either. You can't even land fighters in Libya, because they'd be out of range of London. So either you pull out of Libya altogether, or you let Britain attack Libya with 1 inf, 1 art, 1 tnk, 2 ftr vs. a maximum of 2 inf, 1 art, 1 tnk -- Britain has 84% odds to win that battle. Either way, you're not likely to ever take Egypt, let alone the rest of Africa. That will seriously hurt the German economy as the game goes on.

What Britain Gives Up to Defend Against the G2 London Attack

My battle calculator is showing that the UK can defend against a G2 attack of 1 inf, 1 arm, 6 ftr, 2 bmr by buying something like 3 inf, 1 ftr for the UK, lwhich still leaves enough cash to buy 1 inf, 1 art for India. Assuming the USA flies 1 bomber to London on US1 (and why wouldn't they?), that gives the UK 5 inf, 1 art, 1 tnk, 1 AAA, 3 ftr, 1 bmr in London, which means 64% odds for London to hold the capital. Even if the Brits lose the capital, the Canadian transport has excellent odds (82%) to retake it on UK2 with 1 inf, 1 tnk vs. 1 tnk , and the Germans are very likely to lose at least six planes while taking London (88% chance), so taking London isn't going to do that much for the German position vis-a-vis Moscow, even after collecting London's 30 IPCs of loot.

What Happens if Germany Follows Through

Assuming Germany follows through with the G2 attack even after seeing the UK build 3 inf, 1 ftr in London, then in 4% of games, Germany will take and hold London for a full turn, which is probably enough to win. In 32% of games, Germany will take London for one turn and then immediately lose it. This will cost Germany most of its air force, as well as the chance to take Egypt. India will be somewhat weak against Japan, but Russia should have enough breathing room to temporarily reinforce India until the UK can get back on its feet. Alternatively, Russia can pressure Germany hard in Leningrad, Ukraine, etc. so that even if India falls, Germany will be in trouble from a 100% KGF by turn 5 or so. This "average" outcome has interesting opportunities for the Axis, but on the whole I think the position favors the Allies, especially if there is any kind of Allied bid. In the remaining 64% of games, the Axis don't even manage to take London, and the Axis disproportionately lose planes in the attempt, while also giving up Egypt and likely exposing the Axis Mediterranean fleet to an easy UK2 kill (e.g., 3 ftr vs. 1 BB, 92% win for UK).

What Happens if Germany Chickens Out

If, on the other hand, Germany decides not to make the G2 attack after seeing the UK build 3 inf, 1 ftr in London, then it's not obvious to me that Germany has enough compensation for its decision to ignore the African theater on G1. German fighters in France are out of range of Egypt on G2, and you can't safely stack Libya if you're setting up for the London attack on G1, so your max G2 attack on Egypt is something like 1 inf, 1 tnk, 2 bmr, 1 BB. Britain can defend with 3 inf, 2 ftr, which gives the UK 64% odds to hold Egypt. Even if Germany wins that battle, it will almost certainly cost Germany at least one bomber, and Germany will only have one tank sitting in Egypt. There will be British forces in Libya, Jordan, and Sudan that can take Egypt right back.

Meanwhile, Britain is down one fighter in London (the cash that ordinarily would have bought a second fighter in London was instead used to build infantry) and one infantry in India (Britain only had enough cash to drop two land units in India on turn 1). On the flip side, Britain is effectively up one fighter in Egypt (because Germany wasn't able to kill it on G1), and up three infantry in London (because Britain bought extra infantry for defense).

Granted the infantry in London aren't quite as useful as the infantry in India, because they aren't going anywhere until Britain builds a fleet...but assuming Germany chickens out on G2, there's no reason why Britain can't build a fleet by UK3 at the latest. Those infantry will eventually be put to use invading Norway, France, NW Europe, etc. Plus, there are *three* infantry in London to compensate for the loss of *one* infantry in India. Plus, a fighter in Egypt is arguably more useful than a fighter in London. So, when you add up all the effects of defending against the G2 London attack, at best, Germany has put Britain very slightly out of position, in exchange for basically giving up on conquering or even looting Africa. I'm not saying that the missing infantry in India won't ever be the margin of victory for Japan -- sometimes Japan will be able to capitalize on the one missing infantry to take India a turn earlier -- but more often, I think Germany will regret sending so many resources to the west.
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