Can Germany invade the UK first and win?

[Bean]

So can we just all agree that, baring a person playing without LHTR and without a bid for Germany, this is an incredibly risky move that has almost a nil chance to succeed and will most likely (though, since dice are involved, nothing is final) result in a speedy defeat for Germany?

Who here has done the math?

With 8 dice tech rolls, you have a 76% of getting the tech.

With 1 inf 1 tank 6 fighters + 1 bomber, you have a 72% of winning against 2 inf 1 art 1 arm 1 bomber 2 fighters 1 aa gun.

Thus, you have a composite chance of 54% to take the UK. That's not 30% like the guy a few posts up was saying, nor is it an "incredibly risky move that has almost a nil chance to succeed." In fact, if I could win 54% of the games with the Axis without a bid I'd be really happy.

It is indeed moot because of LHTR, but it was precisely this move that inspired LHTR. It's dumb for a game to be decided in less time it takes to set it up, and it's also dumb to lose your capital before you even made a move.

[kyrial]

Thus, you have a composite chance of 54% to take the UK. That's not 30% like the guy a few posts up was saying, nor is it an "incredibly risky move that has almost a nil chance to succeed." In fact, if I could win 54% of the games with the Axis without a bid I'd be really happy.

I dunno, Tri, I guess my take on what's risky and not is different... I'll give you that with the tech it's a bit easier but I'm looking at things overall. If it fails, it's a catastrophic defeat for Germany. If it succeeds, it's a tremendous blow to the UK but not the end of the world. Maybe I was being too harsh with the "almost a nil chance to succeed" part (baring the tech it is, I believe, somewhere in the 5.7 % range). But I will agree with you 100% that it's dumb for a game to be diecided in less time than it takes to set it up, and also the England should at least get to go before losing their capital.

[CrazyStraw]

It is indeed moot because of LHTR, but it was precisely this move that inspired LHTR. It's dumb for a game to be decided in less time it takes to set it up, and it's also dumb to lose your capital before you even made a move.

Actually, this was the move that inspired Caspian Sub, and you've pretty much quoted their rules paper without crediting it. 

Great shame upon you!!!

http://games.groups.yahoo.com/group/Caspian_Sub/