@ItIsILeClerc:
Having a lot of FTR interceptors somewhere doesn’t necessarily mean you are going to use them.
For example, if France, UK and maybe even ANZAC all have FTR in Moscow, Germany will be forced to either send in escorts with their bombers, or don’t raid Moscow at all. Escorting German FTR are aicraft not used against the allies in the west.
I 'd intercept if I can deal equal or more ‘economic’ damage than I expect to suffer, OR if the military situation gets better for me because of the intercept.
Continuing the example of allied FTR in Moscow: let’s say I can expect to hit 2 German planes during the intercept battle and the SBR consist of 5FTR + 7Bombers, they can also expect to hit 2 allied planes (no Russians, ofc). So both sides loose 2FTR (=20damage ‘economically’). The bombers will not have the option of not bombing, so Russian AA-fire has another 7 shots (expecting 1, maybe 2 hits). Let’s say 1 bomber is hit. German suffered a total ‘economic’ damage of 20+12=32, while Allies suffers a total economic damage of 20+20=40. 8 more than Germany.
Compared however to not intercepting it is much better, because A) Germany lost 3 planes (1 more than the allies) and B) if there was no interception, Russia would have suffered 8 more damage than Germany as well (20 on the IC versus 12 of a shot down Bomber). If Germany looses as much or more aircraft than the allies, this is always a good thing and the more the better. To Moscow it matters a little bit, but to the allies in the West it mattes much more.
The last thing to consider is purely tactical: what is your goal with the aircraft involved and can you still do it if loosing a few during an intercept battle. If Germany is aiming to assault Moscow, loosing a few aircraft while SBRing London may be a bad idea and vice versa. 1 unit more or less can make a shitload of difference during the ‘final battle’, especially units as heavy as bombers or FTR.
For conducting SBRs, I have the same considerations, ofc.
These examples may be extremes but let’s say I always compare intercepting with not intercepting and the obvious choice usually emerges from that comparison.
If I follow your numbers, on a 1:1 ratio, you will do interception, right?
7 Germans’ bombers + 5 fighters against 12 Allied Fighters
- Average Dogfight result: (121/6=) 2 Fighters lost (20 IPCs) against (121/6=) 2 Fighters (20 IPCs)
- IC’s AA gun average results: (7*1/6=) 1 StB lost (12 IPCs)
- Average damage on IC: 6* (1D6+2) avg 5.5 IPCs = 33 IPCs.
So, on average, Russia lose 53 IPCs while Germany lose 32 IPCs.
53 - 32 = balance: - 21 IPCs lost for Russia
If no intercept:
2) IC’s AA gun average results: (71/6=) 1 StB lost (12 IPCs)
3) Average damage on IC: 6 (1D6+2) avg 5.5 IPCs = 33 IPCs.
On average, Russia lose 33 IPCs - 12 IPCs for German’s bomber.
33 - 12 = balance: -21 IPCs lost for Russia.
It is the same results from either side.
However, I didn’t get the same results as your calculation.
Do you see why?
Compared however to not intercepting it is much better, because A) Germany lost 3 planes (1 more than the allies) and B) if there was no interception, Russia would have suffered 8 more damage than Germany as well (20 on the IC versus 12 of a shot down Bomber).