Continuing thread on Night Bombing SBR improving the previous HR in OP

Hi Toblerone,
you wrote this, and it helps me understand on what is your main focus:

This idea is really not that complex. It’s an idea that has a historical basis no matter what scale or game we’re talking about. For the sake of argument let’s just ditch the interceptors and escorts. Keep the attack focused on ICs only. Reduce AA fire to half the casualties as well as halve the damage inflicted on ICs. the advantage to either side is half damage or casualties and adds another option to the game. Not really all that complex.

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=33329.msg1280638#msg1280638

Too bad, it is not part of your main thread.
Because all I will said here is directly link on your Opening Post House Rule.

The main flaws on your HR is that what you are looking for, you doesn’t get it with the actual mechanics you put in:

• Other (viable SBR) options vs G40 OOB SBR,

• A reduce AA fire to half the casualties on StB,

• A real half damage on IC,

• A historical basis which really depict the fact.

The principles are always simple but (because the devil is in the details) when applying them, it doesn’t always work as you wish.

Here is the Night Bombing HR:

This may have been addressed before, but I have always liked the idea of night bombing in A&A. My suggestion would be that is conducted in a similar way to regular SBR raids with these exceptions.

1. The attacker declares their SBR and that they intend to bomb at night.

2. The defender can choose to intercept, however they must use their bombers only. Many bombers in WWII were built as night fighters. This could apply to TBs but I leave that up to the players.

3. All aircraft will attack and defend at 1.

4. Attacking bombers roll and the defender removes casualties behind the casualty line.

5. Defender rolls.

6. All casualties are removed.

7. Defending AA fires. Casualties are halved rounded-up to simulate the difficulty of spotting targets at night.

8. Surviving bombers then roll for damage. The result is halved and rounded-up due to the difficulty of night bombing.

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=33329.msg1268587#msg1268587

First, what does mean this unorthodox A&A mechanics: “Casualties are halved rounded-up to simulate the difficulty of spotting targets at night.”?

As far as I understand, you mean that if 2 StBs are hit by AAA, then only 1 plane is destroyed.
You added “rounded-up” because if there is only 1 StB hit by AAA, it gives .5 hit and rounding up make 1 StB casualty.

Otherwise, if you had put “rounded-down” (.5 becoming no hit, 1.5 becoming a single hit) that would have imply that a single StB making a run is immune to AAA fire and can never be destroyed.

I tried to show you how it doesn’t get the result intended in this extract of post by comparing OOB SBR and Night-bombing probabilities with 2 StBs making the run:

Applying this formula:

Avg damage done on IC   minus   avg IPC from StB lost = IPCs damage/StB run

Sum: 9.167 - 4 = + 5.167 IPCs damage/2 StBs  /  Night Bombing: 4.583 5 -3.667 = 0.916 1.333 IPC damage/ 2 StBs

So there is no interest to make a Night Bombing under this HR either.
The regular day SBR will have much more impact.
There is only a small 1/36 odds to save the additional bombers (- 4 vs - 3.667 IPCs) .

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=33329.msg1280546#msg1280546

With “Casualties are halved rounded-up”, there is no big effect on casualties.
4 IPCs against 3.667 IPCs lost on average.
So, it is the same risk to be destroyed for 1 StB making either OOB SBR or Night Bombing even with adding this specific condition rule. (It doesn’t reach his alleged goal.)

On the other part, clearly not an historical depiction of the protective effect of a Night run, either.

However, “Casualties are halved rounded-down” will provide this kind of protection when there is 2 StBs making a run:
OOB: -4   vs 2.778%*12 IPCs = 0.333 IPC
This would mean 12 times better odds of survival vs Daylight SBR.
Which is nearer historical accuracy.
But, this imply that 1 single StB hit by AAA, will always survive when no interception!
And this will also too much increase the average damage done by 1 StB compared to Day-light bombing.

Now about damage on IC:
OOB: 1D6+2, avg 5.5 IPCs  / Night bombing: halved is 1D3+1 ?, avg 3 IPCs.

At first sight, it is slightly above the half of 5.5= 2.75 IPCs.
And in a 2 StBs mission, gives on avg: 9.167 IPCs vs 5 IPCs.

Here now, what is my suggestion to get what you want, to gain the halved casualties from AAA:

“Historical” light projectors “searching and spotting” StBs in the night sky:
Each StB is spot on a 3 or less.
(This 50% filter roll is another way of doing half casualties.)

Then roll to attack spotted StB with AA gun: on “1” roll a spotted StB is shooted down.
(Work as the usual in-built AAA in IC.)

All surviving StB bombard 1D6-1 damage against IC.
(Historical: 0-5 IPCs possibilities is because many Night bombing runs were so inaccurate that they hit nothing. See the quote below.
And 2.5 IPCs average damage is slightly weaker than the real half damage of Day-light OOB SBR: 2.75.) This is not a problem since Night bombing must be weak.

So, with this mechanics you really get all what you wanted.

Odds for 1 StB against AA gun:
Being shooted down: 3/6 * 1/6 = 3/36 to destroy 1 StB 12 IPCs = - 1 IPC
Survival and bombing IC: 33/36 * [((1-1)+(6-1))/2 =] 2.5 = + 2.292 IPCs

Net average results for Night bombing : +2.292 IPCs - 1 IPC = 1.292 IPCs / StB

compared to OOB SBR for 1 StB:

• 4.584 IPCs - 2 IPCs = + 2.584 IPCs damage/ StB

Everything now is exactly 1/2 damage and 1/2 casualties compared to OOB SBR.

on April 13th 1940, Portal was given a command that if an attack on the west occurred, his targets were to be German troop concentrations and rail yards and oil plants in the Ruhr. The attacks were to be done primarily at night. Germany launched their attack on the west on May 10th; on May 15th, Bomber Command launched a major attack on the Ruhr. Of the 78 planes on the night raid, only one was lost. However, smog over the Ruhr obscured many of the targets and only 24 crews claimed to have even seen their planned targets.

http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/bomber_command_1939.htm

In addition, you can also easily allow intercepting night-fighter StB rolling @1,
because adding (1/6*12 IPCs StB=) +2 IPCs - 2 IPCs = is a par.
on a 1:1, this will mostly get even loss and gains for attacker and defender.

Sums:

• 4.292 IPCs damage on IC and intercepting night-fighter

• 3 IPCs to be destroyed by either StB night-fighter or AAA =
  1.292 IPCs / StB, no change.

So you can play both with or without interceptor but only StB can be Night-fighter, no Fg allowed.
This will create a distinctive marks for both Night and Day bombing.

And by keeping the same rate of destruction than Day SBR for interceptors, it is still historical:

German night fighters transformed aerial combat. The success of German night fighters was such that the Allies had to reform their tactics in an attempt to reduce their effectiveness.

American bombers were usually used for daylight bombing raids on Nazi Germany. RAF bombers were usually used for nighttime bombing raids. A typical raid would involve a flight coming into mainland Europe over the coast of the Netherlands en route to targets such as Cologne, Frankfurt and Nuremberg. The return journey would take the bombers over Strasbourg, Paris and back to their bases usually in East Anglia. Prior to night fighters, bombers were most at risk from anti-aircraft fire especially if they were caught in a searchlight. Night fighters put a new dynamic into a bombing run.

If it was the flak that caused the damage and forced bomber crews to jink their aircraft, thus making accurate bombing difficult, it was the venomously efficient night fighters that were the real killers. Flight-Lieutenant Alfred Price.

By July 1943, German night fighters had a success rate of 5%. While impressive in the sense that this was a very new way of fighting, it also meant that very many RAF bombers got through.

http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/german_night_fighters.htm

The only thing to ponder is this advice of Imperious Leader:

Well then find a fixed damage result that works with the math. The night bombing concept is good for cash poor nations that have small air forces, the key is bombers can only get shot down by AA rolls.

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=33329.msg1280564#msg1280564
Because, if interceptors are allowed, some StBs put on an IC can be enough a deterrent that it will still make Night bombing a suicide mission for these poor nations.

So, what do you think of this Night-Bombing game mechanics HR?

My calculations:

For 2 StBs “in rounded up situation”:
StB#1 AAA roll /StB#2 AAA roll

11= 1/36 StB#1 killed by AAA and StB#2 immunized 2.778%
15= 5/36 StB#1 killed by AAA : 13.889%
51= 5/36 StB#2 killed by AAA : 13.889%
55= 25/36 no casualty : 69.444%

Results:
OOB SBR damage: 69.444% * 2*((1+2) +(6+2) IPCs)/2= + 5.5 IPCs) = 7.639 IPCs
Night Bombing damage: 69.444% * 2*((1+1) +(3+1) IPCs)/2= + 3 IPCs) =4.167 IPCs

OOB SBR damage: 27.778% * 1*((1+2) +(6+2) IPCs)/2= + 5.5 IPCs) = 1.528 IPCs /
NightB damage: 27.778% * 1*(+ 3 IPCs) = 0.833 IPC

OOB SBR casualty: 27.778% 1 StB killed -12 IPCs = - 3.333 IPCs  
Night Bombing casualty: 30.556%-12= - 3.667 IPCs

OOB SBR casualty: 2.778%  both StB killed *-24 IPCs = - 0.667 IPCs

Sum: 9.167 - 4 = + 5.167 IPCs damage/2 StBs  /  Night Bombing: 5 -3.667 = 1.333 IPC damage/ 2 StBs

@SS:

K    I    S    S.

Do you find this Night bombing SBR KISS or not?

“Historical” light projector “search and spot” in the night sky:
Each StB is spot on a 3 or less.

Then roll to attack spotted StB with AA gun: on “1” roll a spotted StB is destroyed.
(Work as the usual in-built AAA in IC.)

All surviving StB bombard 1D6-1 damage against IC.

@SS:

Just use what Tobletone77 and IL suggest in other thread.

So you like the “halved rounded-up casualty” of Toblerone77 and the “halved rounded-down casualty” of IL?
How do you or would you play it?
(Since, you cannot do both.)

@toblerone77:

What is so hard to understand?

Three STBs make a night raid. The defender rolls three dice and scores 3 hits by a miracle.
So 1.5 hits rounded up, it’s two hits, rounded down it’s one hit. The remaining attackers roll for damage and the total is halved to the nearest IPC worth of damage up or down.
If some one were to use the HR their group could decide.

Want simpler rolls for AA guns during a night raid? Easy use D12 dice and have them roll at 1. That equates .5 pips on a D6 die. Easy.

You got it man!!!  :-o  I completely forgot about this possibility of using D12.

I believe you already play with D12, so it won’t be difficult to introduce it in your game.

Day and night AAA will be distinct this way:
Day AAA, use 1 on D6 or “1” or “2” on D12.
For an average casualty of 2/12 * -12 IPCs = - 2 IPCs/StB run.

Night AAA, use “1” on D12.
For an average casualty of 1/12 * -12 IPCs = - 1 IPC/StB run.

One casualty roll is always better. And you get your half casualty average for Night B.

The last point remaining is on damage roll of 1 StB.
Day time SBR:
D6+2 (avg 5.5) * 5/6 = 27.5 IPCs/6 =      4.583 IPCs/StB - 2 IPCs = 2.583 IPCs/run 100%
D6 (avg 3.5) * 5/6 = 17.5 IPCs/6 =          2.917 IPCs/StB - 2 IPCs = 0.917 IPCs/run 35.5%

Night time SBR:
D6 (avg 3.5) * 11/12 = 38.5 IPCs/12 =    3.208 IPCs/ StB  - 1 IPC = 2.208 IPCs/ run  85%
D3+1 (avg 3) * 11/12 = 33 IPCs/12 =      2.750 IPCs/ StB   - 1 IPC = 1.75 IPCs/ run  68%
D6-1 (avg 2.5) * 11/12 = 27.5 IPCs/12 = 2.292 IPCs/ StB  - 1 IPC = 1.292 IPCs/ run 50%
D3 (avg 2) * 11/12 = 22 IPCs/12 =          1.833 IPCs/ StB  - 1 IPC = 0.833 IPCs/ run  32%

Last Tob77 version 4 out 6 doing 2 IPCs damage:
4/6 * 2 IPCs * 5/6 = 40 IPCs/36 =           1.111 IPCs/StB - 2 IPCs = -0.889 IPCs/run - 34%

AA gun hits halved rounded up version for 2 StBs:
D3+1(avg 3)*11/36=33 IPCs/36=      +0.917 IPCs/ 2StB
D3+1(avg 3)225/36=150 IPCs/36= +4.167 IPCs/ 2StB - 3.667= 1.417/2= 0.709 IPCs/ 1 StB run 27%
                                                                            or -1.834 IPCs/ 1 StB

AA gun hits halved rounded down version for 2 StBs:
D3+1(avg 3)*1/36=3 IPCs/36 =         +0.083 IPCs/2StBs
D3+1(avg 3)235/36= 210 IPCs/36= +5.833 IPCs/2StBs -0.333= 5.583/2= 2.792 IPCs/1 StB run 108%
                                                                             or -0.167 IPCs/ 1 StB

1 StB against AAA repulse @2:
D3+1 (avg 3) * 4/6 = 12 IPCs/6 =      2 IPCs/ StB   - 0 IPC = 2.00 IPCs/ run  77%

Rolling damage first 1 to 4 IPCs, 5 or 6 is a miss and get under AA fire @1:
1+2+3+4+0+0=10/6 IPCs =         + 1.67 IPCs - [(12 IPCs*2/36)= 4/6] .67 = 1 IPC/ run 39%

Night time bombing played as Convoy disruption on 1-3 damage (4-6= 0), no AA fired:
1+2+3+0+0+0=6/6=                     +1 IPC             - 0 IPC = 1 IPC damage/ run 39%