We might be discussing a "chicken or the egg" scenario
Which comes first?
A 'moderately risky attack(s)' that were part of the normal (early) game
or you set up some 'moderately risky attacks' as 'bait'?
If normal game play doesn't create these battle opportunities, you may need to create some bait.
On the first turn of each respective country, the Russians attack the Germans, the Germans attack the UK and Russia, UK responds to Germany's buy and responds to the Africa-India position, Japan responds to the UK and Russia move and possibly attacks US, US commits and buys.
In other words, for every country except Russia, you have some information to work with regarding how your opponents are going to play, and should have some idea about their risk management strategies.