Axis victory

[Cmdr Jennifer]

So round 3, you aren't taking london, because usa flies some stuff in there and uk bought all guys for itself.  India sees ya coming falls back to calcutta. Guess you aren't taking london.

Unless I missed something very obvious, even if the war starts on round 2, the absolute most America could get to London is a few bombers (4) with defense value 1.  To do this they have to buy 3 bombers for E. USA (C. USA cannot make it).  They can then fly them to London on Round 2 when they are at war.  That is the sum total of what you can bring.  Since Germany already has 93% odds if England brings every possible unit home, these 4 bombers are not going to make a whole big difference really, it might drop the odds to 89% (assuming 1% decrease for each strategic bomber added) but cost America a round's worth of purchases and 4 strategic bombers.


As for Calcutta, if you drop back I take India as light as I can and stage for a second take if you try to liberate.  I've seen this ploy already and it's probably worse for India than it is for Japan.  What did work okay (considering Calcutta was lost permanently and Japan won the game by VCs) is retreating the units through the Middle East and using them to hold Egypt.

[Cow]

are you playing low luck or dice? and bombers inside of UK makes a big difference due to cannon fodder factor. it is also why people bid 3 for allies to place an infantry there so usa doesn't have buy so many bombers.

[Cow]

also usa starts with a bomber so you don't have to buy 3 bombers, though some people do (the undecided on which direction to go types like the bomber buy for east usa as they can move over to the pacific side with ease)

[Cmdr Jennifer]

are you playing low luck or dice? and bombers inside of UK makes a big difference due to cannon fodder factor. it is also why people bid 3 for allies to place an infantry there so usa doesn't have buy so many bombers.

ADS.  LL is too flaky for me, I don't like that 2 infantry and 1 strategic bomber always wins over 1 defending infantry.  Other people can play it if they want, it's not BAD, but I don't like it.

With +5 American Strategic Bombers in England, my calculators show 91.3% odds for Germany to win.  Instead of 93.7% odds with 9 tanks and 10 aircraft they, only have 5 tanks and all aircraft.  So your 60 IPC worth of bombers bought you +4 armor killed.  I don't think this is a good trade.  BTW, this is the absolute best you can bring to the fight including maximum British, French and American units.

If Germany loses 1 strategic bomber due to bombing raids (there's 67% chance of losing a bomber or tactical bomber) the odds change too: 87.5% for Germany with 3 armor, 9 aircraft remaining.

This calculator won't run LL battles.

[Cmdr Jennifer]

also usa starts with a bomber so you don't have to buy 3 bombers, though some people do (the undecided on which direction to go types like the bomber buy for east usa as they can move over to the pacific side with ease)

To get maximum defense, yes you do have to buy 3 bombers.  You cannot get any unit except Bombers to England between America 2 and Germany 3 because America is not at war on USA 1.

[Cmdr Jennifer]

4 Strategics purchased + 1 on hand (numbers I used) because it was the absolute most that you could get. (52 IPC starting - 48 IPC for bombers, leaves 4, you cannot get a 5th bomber then.  Nothing you buy on round 2 can get to England before Germany 3.)

[Cow]

that is more than enough to hold london. Also depends on what happened to uk's canada transport, because even in low luck games they sometimes survive.

for both low luck and dice 3-5 bombers in london is big. they might roll a 1 and get a kill and they give the other units on london more time to fire. You should run the calc
~
if the transport on UK makes it to canada, UK can take a nuetral territory and usa bombers move 5 to sink german naval and land on the nuetral.

So bomber buys are really good for USA round 1. It's standard play to buy a few. I don't know many people that don't.

[Cmdr Jennifer]

Even with the bombers you have less than 1 in 6 chance to survive in London!

SZ 106 hit with 3 submarines
SZ 109 hit with 2 submarines and all available aircraft

3 Submarines vs 1 Destroyer:  98.5% odds.  In Low Luck that's 100% odds

[Cow]

the odds change in the other battles, as it depends on your opener, most people do 2 subs. if you send 3 subs there you could possibly put other battles at risk. (I mean you are also trying not to lose air units elsewhere right?)

Even in worse case scenario. with all available units in uk adding 3-5 bombers is great. Run that calc. then look at what could go wrong in G1 in dice and ll.

~

after you do that you can make a fair assessment. Also 5 bombers is not freaking 2% better odds, it is way more than that.

[knp7765]

Hey Frontovik,
We have played out games after an "official" victory was declared by the Axis.  Usually the Axis will get the required VCs by round 8 or 9.  So we play on and the game stretches out to 19 or 20 rounds and usually results in an Allied victory.  In most cases, even though the Axis manage to get all the VCs required, the Allies are still making more money.  

One reason is that Japan had too much trouble in the Pacific and more or less was biding time for the Germans to get the 8 of 11 in Europe.  Once we decide to play the game out, Japan ends up getting pounded pretty good and Germany can't really do anything to help them.  USA usually goes into the Med and takes out Italy after that.  Between USA and UK, Germany seems to be bouncing back and forth to answer threats while UK units from Calcutta manage to sneak up and liberate Russia.  After that, it's just a matter of time.

[Karl7]

kill India question

So if I am reading this right, Japan goes after India by wiping out all naval blockers round 2, with sea/land invasion on 3 with mass air support, willingly losing as many air units as necessary?

How do you prevent USA, ANZAC, UK or French from blocking in their rnd 2 Japanese trns coming from sz36 by occupying sz37?  As I see it, if UK keeps dd rnd 1 in 37, the BB and CC in 39 with aircover, the US fleet units move to 54, all ANZAC ship in 54, with French dd in 58, Japan simply can't prevent a sz37 block rnd3.

 
Without those trns from Japan, Japan has 3 trns full, w/1arm and 1mech by land + all air.  Looks a little thin if India turtles and has around 20+ land and 2ftrs and tac. I guess Japan could jsut move up rnd 3 into burma, but then that would either garner a UK attack or just another 7 or inf in India.  

[Cow]

global is a totally different game when both sides are playing total victory, much more aggressive.
~
Karl7, the people Jenn play never turtle calcutta.

[Cmdr Jennifer]

Not really going to look at LL, since I don't play it.  

ADS:

I generally knock out SZ 106, 109, 111 and 112 take W. France, Yugoslavia (need the 2 IPC) and France on Germany 1 without losing any fighters.


4 Infantry, 4 Fighters, 1 Strategic Bomber at start
+
9 Infantry, 1 Saved round 2
- 3 Submarines worth of CRD (I estimate 6 damage)
- 2 Strategics worth of SBR (I estimate 11 damage)
- Airbase turned off
(Estimate one of these units is lost, reducing total airpower to 11 units)
10 Infantry, 3 saved round 3
+ 2 Fighters, Tactical from Med
+5 American Strategic Bombers (maybe, this assumes America knows this is going to happen on Round 1 and tries to pull this move.)

Max:  23 Infantry, 6 Strategic Bombers, 6 Fighters, 1 Tactical Bomber
vs
Min: 13 Infantry, 4 Artillery, 9 Armor, 5 Fighters, 4 Tactical Bombers, 2 Strategic Bombers, Cruiser, Battleship


Running this through a base calculator (that cannot handle AA Guns as casualties) we get:

96.8% Odds Germany
3.2% Odds Americans/British/French


ADS of course.  LL might be completely different - LL games tend to be completely different because you can guarentee x-amount of hits.  

[Noll]

By Axis Economic Victory I mean that at some point the Allies might be forced to surrender even if you didn't get VC win yet.

That's achievable if you play an expanding but "defensive" Axis.

[Cow]

wait, i read your stuff wrong, one second. Also why are you using a battle calc that cannot factor AA guns?