wheatbeer (axis) vs kilroynothere (allies) G40 A3

[wheatbeer]

SZ91

3 sub, 1 dest, 1 cru, 3 fig, 1 bsh, 1 tact

:4@2 4@3 2@4:

3 sub, 3 dest, 1 carrier, 1 tact, 1 cru, 1 bsh, 1 fig

:3@1 4@2 2@3 2@4:

[wheatbeer]

forgot the aaa

SZ91

3 sub, 1 dest, 1 cru, 3 fig, 1 bsh, 1 tact

Rolls: 4@2 4@3 2@4; Total Hits: 5

4@2: (2, 3, 4, 1)4@3: (3, 4, 4, 2)2@4: (6, 4)

3 sub, 3 dest, 1 carrier, 1 tact, 1 cru, 1 bsh, 1 fig

Rolls: 3@1 4@2 2@3 2@4; Total Hits: 3

3@1: (5, 5, 3)4@2: (3, 2, 6, 5)2@3: (2, 4)2@4: (2, 5)

[wheatbeer]

assuming max defense for Allied: damages to bsh and carrier, loss of subs
Germany sinks carrier, damages bsh

SZ91 r2

A 3 sub, 1 dest, 1 cru, 3 fig, 1 damaged bsh, 1 tact

Rolls: 4@2 4@3 2@4; Total Hits: 6

4@2: (1, 1, 4, 1)4@3: (2, 2, 5, 4)2@4: (4, 5)

D 3 dest, 1 damaged carrier, 1 tact, 1 cru, 1 damaged bsh, 1 fig

Rolls: 4@2 2@3 2@4; Total Hits: 5

4@2: (4, 3, 2, 2)2@3: (3, 5)2@4: (1, 4)

[wheatbeer]

deadly round for both of us

again assuming max defense

SZ91 r3

A 1 cru, 2 fig, 1 damaged bsh, 1 tact

Rolls: 3@3 2@4; Total Hits: 3

3@3: (3, 6, 3)2@4: (5, 2)

D 1 damaged bsh, 1 fig

Rolls: 2@4; Total Hits: 1

2@4: (4, 6)

[wheatbeer]

sz91 cwlo 3 sub, 1 dest, 2 fig, 1 carrier, and damage to bsh

[wheatbeer]

I hope that is an acceptable reroll.

round 1
Germany rolled most likely outcome, Allies rolled 1 under most likely outcome.

round 2
Both sides rolled 1 hit over their most likely outcome.

round 3
Both sides rolled most likely outcome.

I can't give you the true odds for the battle outcome as a whole since aa calc calculates defending subs at 2, defending carriers at 3, attacking carriers at 1, and only gives carriers 1 hit point.

[wheatbeer]

NOV

A 12 inf, 10 art, 2 tank

Rolls: 2@1 20@2 2@3; Total Hits: 5

2@1: (4, 3)20@2: (4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6, 2, 5, 6, 4, 1, 6, 5, 5, 2, 3, 6, 5, 4, 2)2@3: (6, 3)

D 1 inf

Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 0

1@2: (3)

[wheatbeer]

nov twol

NUKR

A 2 inf, 1 fig, 1 tact, 1 strat

Rolls: 2@1 1@3 2@4; Total Hits: 2

2@1: (1, 5)1@3: (5)2@4: (6, 1)

D 2 inf

Rolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 0

2@2: (5, 5)

[wheatbeer]

nukr twol

BEL

A 2 inf, 2 tact, 1 strat

Rolls: 2@1 2@3 1@4; Total Hits: 3

2@1: (6, 4)2@3: (1, 1)1@4: (1)

D 2 inf

Rolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 1

2@2: (4, 2)

[wheatbeer]

bel twlo 1 inf

BES

A 5 inf, 4 art

Rolls: 1@1 8@2; Total Hits: 1

1@1: (5)8@2: (4, 3, 4, 2, 4, 4, 3, 6)

D 1 inf

Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 0

1@2: (3)

[wheatbeer]

bes twol

NCM:
1 strat bel >> wgr
1 strat nukr >> wgr
2 tact bel >> epl
1 fig, 1 tact nukr >> epl
1 fig, 1 tact SZ91 >> SZ92
2 fig rom >> egy
1 dest SZ93 >> SZ92
1 trans SZ98 >> SZ95
1 aa gun wgr >> nita
6 inf fin >> kar
2 inf, 2 art nor >> fin
1 aa gun epl >> bes
1 aa gun bal >> nov
2 mech, 5 tank, 1 aa gun bal >> epl

Mobilize:
6 inf, 4 art rom
1 sub, 1 dest SZ112
1 fig wgr

Collect 49 + 10 = 59 IPC

(reminder: skipped ANZAC/France)

[kilroynothere]

Sure. I needed just one more hit early to make it a good fight. Figured roughly 50/50... sure liked the first round rolls though! 

Seriously starting to feel like there is nothing that can be done with the Allied cause. Am I just too pessimistic?  Reading in the forums it seems that everyone is starting to think it is now skewed toward the Axis. I tend to agree. Just nothing you can really do to stop the tide.

Regardless, will carry on to see as I am curious if I am still just playing too aggressively or if it really is difficult for the Allies.

As i see it, no way to stop Italy, no way to stop Japan, and no way to stop Germany... seems pretty obvious.

Anyway, I'll get the ANZAC and Russian moves in tonight I think.

[wheatbeer]

Germany was willing to sacrifice everything to trash the Allied fleet.  We had equal hitpoints, but Germany had more hitting power and didn't have to sacrifice any of it until after 3 defending hits since it's carrier was there just to absorb.  Odds were in Germany's favor around 55% maybe.  Still very close.  I think low luck rules would have made it even closer to 50/50.

I think the current opinion towards the Axis is based on the Sea Lion / India crush combo (with the most complaint about Sea Lion).  It can become a very difficult struggle for Germany if it goes Barbarossa instead (see my current A3 match against Axisplaya, which might only be saved, ironically, by a late-game Sea Lion).

I'd agree that the Allies aren't in great shape right now.  The US probably can't afford to spend and lose resources in the Atlantic this early when London isn't under threat.

[wheatbeer]

Also, after this game, if you want to play another match, we should a full game low luck.

[wheatbeer]

*should try