S03 Gamerman01 (allies +12) v JWW

[JWW]

what's the odds of that 7 hits for 11 @ 2.

per twlo 5 inf

ncm:
sud 2 fgt >z15
sud 3 fgt & per fgt > z34
z38 fleet > z34
z34 trn > z38
haw 2 fgt > z53
hup 2 inf > sik
sui inf > nin
yun 3inf, arm > sik
man inf, art > bry
z62 trn > z63
jpn 2 inf > far
z62 dd > z64
z52 ca > z64
z62 2 fgt > z38
fic 2 arm > ind


placement cv & dd z38, 2 inf sum, 3inf ind, 2 inf fic, trn& fgt z62, 5inf JPN

J collects 69

[Gamerman01]

3.86%

Yay - some evening out!

[Gamerman01]

You need to land the bomber that is in Cau.  I won't allow it to continuously bomb Stalingrad until J9 to do the maximum 8 damage.... 

[Gamerman01]

You also moved 2 subs and destroyer from 51 to 53

[Gamerman01]

UK move will actually be unaffected by the bomber placement, I think....
Probably need to be buying AA anyway.

UK8 with 31, buy 5 INF, 2 ARM, AA

Combat moves -
Sud - INF, FTR (Egy) 2 FTR (Z27)
Chi - FTR (Cau) BMB (Egy)
NWE - INF, ART (GBr) offload from 5
NWE - 2 FTR (Z5)
TrJ - INF (Egy)

NWE

Rolls: 2@2 2@3; Total Hits: 4

2@2: (2, 1)2@3: (1, 3)

Rolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 0

2@2: (6, 4)

[Gamerman01]

Sud

Rolls: 1@1 3@3; Total Hits: 1

1@1: (2)3@3: (3, 5, 4)

Rolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 1

2@2: (4, 2)

[Gamerman01]

Sud2

Rolls: 3@3; Total Hits: 1

3@3: (6, 3, 5)

Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 1

1@2: (2)

[Gamerman01]

Chi

Rolls: 1@3 1@4; Total Hits: 2

1@3: (1)1@4: (2)

Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 1

1@2: (1)

[Gamerman01]

Well the dice make me look foolish again.  All I can do is play the numbers
It's OK, I can afford it

Egy - FTR (Sud)
Alg - FTR (Sud) FTR (Cau)
Rus - BMB (Chi)
Bel - 2 INF (BSt) 7 INF, ART (EPl) ARM (Ura)
Kar - 3 INF, 3 ARM (GBr)
Z17 - TP, CV (Z27)
Z5 - 2 FTR (NWE)
Rho - ART (SAf)
Lib - AA (Egy)

Collect 28, 28 on hand

Don't even talk to me about defensive 2's.  Pretty sure you've been hitting around 50% so far.  Now I'm curious and will go check.  Nor about SBR.  You note that I've had success with SBR, and then prompty reel off a 6 on Caucasus.    Always helps to complain, I always say.

Oh, and don't forget that Rome wasn't built in a day. 

[Gamerman01]

Don't even talk to me about defensive 2's.  Pretty sure you've been hitting around 50% so far.  Now I'm curious and will go check. 

OK, the numbers are in.  You're not hitting 50%, it just feels like it.  That's why I like to check the numbers - to reconcile facts with feelings.  In the charts below, the results are the number of hits suffered by each power.  So, for example, in the first 4 rounds Russia faced a 29.6% hit rate from all Axis defending 2's.

Rounds 1-4 totals (facing defensive 2's only):
G      2/18       11.1%
R      8/27       29.6%
J       6/22       27.3%
UK    5/9          55.6%
I       2/4          50%
US    3/8          37.5%

Axis    10/44     22.7%  (Yeah, that was noticeable)
Allies   16/44    36.4%  (a little worse than average over 4 rounds)

Round 5-7 1/2 totals
G     8/22       36.4%  (Can't get lucky forever)
R     18/53      34.0%
J      9/21       42.9%  (Ouch)
UK   7/19        36.8% 
I      1/8          12.5%
US    1/2          50%

Axis  18/51      35.3%
Allies  26/74    35.1%

Game totals
Axis   28/95     29.5%
Allies  42/118   35.6%

Yep, you've been lucky so far.  But not lucky enough. 

[Gamerman01]

Round 5-7 1/2 totals

No, that should be round 8 1/2.  3 1/2 rounds of play.

[Gamerman01]

SBR results

Allies
0/6 hits from AA on SBR
22 damage total, for a 3.67 damage average (3.5 expected)

Axis
0/0 hits from AA on SBR
11 damage total on 3 runs, for a 3.67 damage average (exactly the same as Allies)

Other AA
Allies
Missed twice

Axis
Missed thrice

So as far as lucky SBR's, I'm about 1 bomber ahead and 4.5 damage ahead (downed bomber would do no damage except kill a couple of random cows)

So it seems you are also subject to personal bias (aren't we all) and in fact we've both had close to average luck with SBR's (with me so far being slightly luckier than average)

Yeah, I like crunching numbers.  It's what I do.    Seems to translate into a lot of A&A success, too.

[LuckyLindy]

Very interesting when the numbers are crunched!

[JWW]

You need to land the bomber that is in Cau.  I won't allow it to continuously bomb Stalingrad until J9 to do the maximum 8 damage.... 

yeah I remembered this as I drove home from work yesterday, been incredibly busy, sorry.....land it in IND....I think that should be fine?

[JWW]

SBR results
Allies
Missed twice

Russia knocked a german bmb out of the sky. You missed that.