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 Author Topic: S03 Gamerman01 (allies +12) v JWW  (Read 10713 times)
Gamerman01
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 34032

Rules "Deputy", G40 league mod

 « Reply #795 on: November 25, 2011, 04:57:46 pm » 0

so basically, according to your chart you got lucky seeing as I had a 55% chance of not getting hit?
JWW, again you seem clueless.  Pin has jumped in and made all these statistics posts.  Not me.
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Gamerman01
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 34032

Rules "Deputy", G40 league mod

 « Reply #796 on: November 25, 2011, 04:59:46 pm » 0

Calculating the odds of a certain number of AA missing is easy.  Take 5/6 to the Nth power.
5/6 to the 3rd (NWE) = 57.9%
5/6 to the 9th (USA's) = 19.4%

Excel can do that.

And Pin, believe me, man, I have seen MANY dice results just as strange as Poland, there.  Many.  How about 5 of 6 aircraft shot down by AA on one turn?  How about 13 tanks all missing, and the 3 defending tanks all hitting?  I could go on.
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JWW
Moderator
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 21825

 « Reply #797 on: November 25, 2011, 05:00:06 pm » 0

cze twol

ncm:
all fgt's fra
bul arm > ger
bul aa > cze
ger 8inf & 4 arm > fra

G collects 32
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Gamerman01
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 34032

Rules "Deputy", G40 league mod

 « Reply #798 on: November 25, 2011, 05:01:13 pm » 0

Pin, if you are going to jump into a hot game and start posting, you need to clearly identify yourself.
JWW understandably thought you were me.
That could cause some serious misunderstandings if you're not careful.  Thanks.
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Gamerman01
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 34032

Rules "Deputy", G40 league mod

 « Reply #799 on: November 25, 2011, 05:01:56 pm » 0

Think I'll grab some McDonald's first before making Russian move...
Shouldn't move on an empty stomach.
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Pin
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 5204

 « Reply #800 on: November 25, 2011, 05:02:26 pm » 0

Calculating the odds of a certain number of AA missing is easy.  Take 5/6 to the Nth power.
5/6 to the 3rd (NWE) = 57.9%
5/6 to the 9th (USA's) = 19.4%

Excel can do that.

And Pin, believe me, man, I have seen MANY dice results just as strange as Poland, there.  Many.  How about 5 of 6 aircraft shot down by AA on one turn?  How about 13 tanks all missing, and the 3 defending tanks all hitting?  I could go on.

If you regularly see 0.01% battles then i feel sorry for you or you got to be the luckiest man alive. By nature of the odds you have to roll 10 000 battles to see that happen. Ofcourse you will have seen it before, but far from in every game you play.
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JWW
Moderator
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 21825

 « Reply #801 on: November 25, 2011, 05:03:27 pm » 0

who the hell is pin?
get the grilled chix club w/no mayo, hold the fries. You can thank me in ther a.m.
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Pin
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 5204

 « Reply #802 on: November 25, 2011, 05:04:14 pm » 0

Pin, if you are going to jump into a hot game and start posting, you need to clearly identify yourself.
JWW understandably thought you were me.
That could cause some serious misunderstandings if you're not careful.  Thanks.

Duely noted, i will not post anymore. Just tought it was obviouse as it says Pin on the left hand side of the post. And i just wanted to post some hard facts about statistics not commenting game. But just as i wrote that first post that sick outlier happened and i couldnt keep myself. Sorry for that, just ignore my post and go back to the game. A very interesting game you guys have going
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Gamerman01
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 34032

Rules "Deputy", G40 league mod

 « Reply #803 on: November 25, 2011, 05:04:38 pm » 0

This is the Poland battle odds for what happened, thats one sick sick outlier. You probably wont see such a skewed fight in most games you roll on this site :p
Pin, go look at some of the early Russian rounds.
This is just a fair payback.
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Gamerman01
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 34032

Rules "Deputy", G40 league mod

 « Reply #804 on: November 25, 2011, 05:06:06 pm » 0

Duely noted, i will not post anymore.
Your posts are welcome, although some people don't like posts in the middle of their dice rolling.  And since JWW and I were talking back and forth, he was expecting new posts from me, so was confused.
Quote
Just tought it was obviouse as it says Pin on the left hand side of the post.
Obvious is not enough sometimes, for JWW
Quote
And i just wanted to post some hard facts about statistics not commenting game. But just as i wrote that first post that sick outlier happened and i couldnt keep myself. Sorry for that, just ignore my post and go back to the game. A very interesting game you guys have going
Absolutely, I understand.  I welcome your posts.  Just didn't like how JWW thought you were me.  Cheers!
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Gamerman01
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 34032

Rules "Deputy", G40 league mod

 « Reply #805 on: November 25, 2011, 05:08:57 pm » 0

If you regularly see 0.01% battles then i feel sorry for you or you got to be the luckiest man alive. By nature of the odds you have to roll 10 000 battles to see that happen. Ofcourse you will have seen it before, but far from in every game you play.
Whoa, dude, both of those battles went AGAINST me, so does that make me the unluckiest man alive?
I have about 25,000 posts.  I've played like 50 games.  I don't see .01% in every game I play, nor did I say that I did.  I said I have seen many HIGHLY unlikely dice rolls, and I have seen my share of 1 and 2% results.  Many in my favor, many against.
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JWW
Moderator
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 21825

 « Reply #806 on: November 25, 2011, 05:09:55 pm » 0

can someone please explain what some dude (?) is doing on a Friday night, reading & posting their thoughts in a random gaming threads on this site.? Seems very sad....must be a math major.

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Gamerman01
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 34032

Rules "Deputy", G40 league mod

 « Reply #807 on: November 25, 2011, 05:11:52 pm » 0

can someone please explain what some dude (?) is doing on a Friday night, reading & posting their thoughts in a random gaming threads on this site.? Seems very sad....must be a math major.
Whoa there.  Pin just PM'd me, saying he's watched this whole game.  So it's not random.

And I am a CPA and now a full-time math teacher 6th-12th.  Definitely doesn't hurt my A&A game.
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Gamerman01
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 34032

Rules "Deputy", G40 league mod

 « Reply #808 on: November 25, 2011, 05:12:24 pm » 0

Must..... survive...... to eat McDonald's.........

TTYL
Russia in an hour....
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Pin
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 5204

 « Reply #809 on: November 25, 2011, 05:12:47 pm » 0

Ok, last post :p

Im a major in financial math. Im prolly are sad person, but gf got to get up early tomorrow so im playing some Agricola while spectating you guys playing. Quit playing AA a year or so back myself, but still enjoy a good game, and i have followed youre game since the start
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