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 Author Topic: S03 Gamerman01 (allies +12) v JWW  (Read 10712 times)
Gamerman01
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 34032

Rules "Deputy", G40 league mod

 « Reply #780 on: November 25, 2011, 04:40:56 pm » 0

Really? going 0-9 for a one is 20% likely? and 1-9 over 54%?? I am NOT a math guy and I have NO IDEA how you come to those calculations but they seem like really big numbers.
Yes.
I have an accurate A&A calculator.
I put in 9 bombers against 9 bombers for 1 round only, and looked at the % distribution.
Yes, there is a 20% chance that 9 1's will miss completely.
 Logged
JWW
Moderator
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 21825

 « Reply #781 on: November 25, 2011, 04:42:12 pm » 0

G17 rpr 8 purch 3 inf & art spend 21 (save 1)

combat
#1a ukr (arm) v inf, art (bul)
#1 nwe (3inf, aa) v 4inf, art, arm & 3 fgt (ger)
#2 pol (inf) v 2inf (bul) & 4 fgt (ger)
#3 cze (inf) v 5inf & 10 arm (bul)

this is not looking good......
 Logged
JWW
Moderator
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 21825

 « Reply #782 on: November 25, 2011, 04:43:20 pm » 0

ukr attack
Rolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 1
2@2: (4, 2)
v arm
Rolls: 1@3; Total Hits: 0
1@3: (6)
 Logged
Pin
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 5204

 « Reply #783 on: November 25, 2011, 04:44:12 pm » 0

0.hit   19,38 %
1.hit   34,89 %
2.hit   27,91 %
3.hit   13,02 %
4.hit   3,91 %
5.hit   0,78 %
6.hit   0,10 %
7.hit   0,01 %
8.hit   0,00 %
9.hit   0,00 %
100,00 %

Just tought i should end the discussion. This is for 9 planes running against an AA. The probability is for that exact outcome. So for hitting 3 or less you have to add up 0.hit trough 3.hit etc.
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JWW
Moderator
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 21825

 « Reply #784 on: November 25, 2011, 04:45:10 pm » 0

ukr twol

NWE aa fire
Rolls: 3@1; Total Hits: 1
3@1: (1, 6, 3)
this must be like 70% there isn't a one?
 Logged
JWW
Moderator
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 21825

 « Reply #785 on: November 25, 2011, 04:47:46 pm » 0

BS, I don't believe your math. doesn't account for the randomness of dice. I prefer to hang in the quantum mechanics world where there is just too much chaos for lack of a better world to make such bold presumptions.

NWE attack
Rolls: 3@3 2@2 3@1; Total Hits: 3
3@3: (1, 4, 5)2@2: (1, 1)3@1: (3, 3, 4)
v 3inf
Rolls: 3@2; Total Hits: 0
3@2: (3, 5, 4)
 Logged
Pin
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 5204

 « Reply #786 on: November 25, 2011, 04:48:44 pm » 0

ukr twol

NWE aa fire <div style="border: 1px solid #FF3333; background-color: white; padding: 0.5em;"><img src="/forums/Themes/axisandallies/dice-small.gif" border="0" alt="Dice" style="float: left; margin-left: 1em;"/><div><b>Rolls:</b> 3@1; <b>Total Hits:</b> 1</div><div><span style="white-space: nowrap; margin: 0 2em 0 0;">3@1: (<b>1</b>, 6, 3)</span></div></div> this must be like 70% there isn't a one?

0.hit   57,87 %
1.hit   34,72 %
2.hit   6,94 %
3.hit   0,46 %
 Logged
JWW
Moderator
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 21825

 « Reply #787 on: November 25, 2011, 04:49:22 pm » 0

nwe twlo fgt

pol attack
Rolls: 4@3 2@1; Total Hits: 0
4@3: (6, 6, 6, 6)2@1: (3, 3)
v inf
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 1
1@2: (1)
 Logged
JWW
Moderator
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 21825

 « Reply #788 on: November 25, 2011, 04:50:00 pm » 0

really

Rolls: 4@3 1@1; Total Hits: 0
4@3: (6, 6, 4, 4)1@1: (6)
v inf
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 1
1@2: (2)
 Logged
Gamerman01
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 34032

Rules "Deputy", G40 league mod

 « Reply #789 on: November 25, 2011, 04:50:44 pm » 0

this must be like 70% there isn't a one?
57.9%
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Gamerman01
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 34032

Rules "Deputy", G40 league mod

 « Reply #790 on: November 25, 2011, 04:51:06 pm » 0

Evil omens -
Looks like your sign to quit, JW
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JWW
Moderator
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 21825

 « Reply #791 on: November 25, 2011, 04:52:05 pm » 0

ukr twol

NWE aa fire <div style="border: 1px solid #FF3333; background-color: white; padding: 0.5em;"><img src="/forums/Themes/axisandallies/dice-small.gif" border="0" alt="Dice" style="float: left; margin-left: 1em;"/><div><b>Rolls:</b> 3@1; <b>Total Hits:</b> 1</div><div><span style="white-space: nowrap; margin: 0 2em 0 0;">3@1: (<b>1</b>, 6, 3)</span></div></div> this must be like 70% there isn't a one?

0.hit   57,87 %
1.hit   34,72 %
2.hit   6,94 %
3.hit   0,46 %

so basically, according to your chart you got lucky seeing as I had a 55% chance of not getting hit?
 Logged
Pin
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 5204

 « Reply #792 on: November 25, 2011, 04:53:34 pm » 0

last post ill make about statistics, sorry but i love statistics :p

1st round   0,72 %
2nd round   0,87 %
total   0,01 %

This is the Poland battle odds for what happened, thats one sick sick outlier. You probably wont see such a skewed fight in most games you roll on this site :p
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JWW
Moderator
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 21825

 « Reply #793 on: November 25, 2011, 04:54:07 pm » 0

Evil omens -
Looks like your sign to quit, JW
yeah those odds are like stupid huh?

3rd wave
Rolls: 3@3 1@1; Total Hits: 4
3@3: (1, 3, 2)1@1: (1)
v inf
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 0
1@2: (3)
 Logged
JWW
Moderator
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 21825

 « Reply #794 on: November 25, 2011, 04:55:06 pm » 0

pol twlo fgt, inf

cze attack
Rolls: 10@3 5@1; Total Hits: 4
10@3: (4, 4, 1, 1, 6, 6, 6, 1, 6, 3)5@1: (5, 5, 3, 3, 2)
v inf
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 0
1@2: (6)
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