Botider (Axis) vs Jen (Allies) G40A2 +NO -Tech Gm4

[Botider]

wow,... i am playing like a dog, and the dice are making me pay...

2 hits to bbs
2 cvs die (4 hits)
ftr, tbmb (that can't land now)
dd
2 ca
ftr

man, that is awful.

[Botider]

well, this is supposedly a 98% win, but it ain't lookin' so good now... let's see if it gets worse...

sz6
attackers...
6 ftr @ 3, 6 tbmb/2 dbb/2 sbmb @ 4

Rolls: 6@3 10@4; Total Hits: 12

6@3: (1, 4, 2, 2, 3, 1)10@4: (3, 5, 1, 6, 3, 2, 6, 3, 1, 3)

call hits...

[Botider]

good grief,... the dice are stuck on 12. that's sure makes up for the first round... 'cept we'll see what you hit now. all u.s. units are dead, if my count is correct.

defenders...
3 dcv @ 2, 2 ca @ 3, 6 ftr/dbb @ 4

Rolls: 3@2 2@3 7@4; Total Hits: 9

3@2: (3, 2, 2)2@3: (4, 1)7@4: (1, 4, 1, 4, 1, 6, 2)

[Botider]

good grief,... you scorched me!

[Botider]

12 out of 14 4's? that's so unlike you... 

noncombat
3 ftrs, 2 sbmbs sz5 > japan
dd sz37 > sz20
2 sub sz43 > sz20
sub, 2 dd sz45 > sz21
cv sz44 > sz21
trn sz45 > sz20
trn sz35 > sz20
inf, rtl sikang > shensi
rtl, mech kansu > shensi
2 inf, arm kiangsu > kiangsi
rtl, arm kwangtung > kiangsi

deployment
3 inf, rtl, 2 arm > japan
3 trn > sz6
3 arm > kiangsu

collect
$45

not much hope at this point... i really needed for most of my planes to survive. ah well,... easy come, easy go. nice move in the pacific,... but i really gotta pay attention to the sea zones a little better...

[Cmdr Jennifer]

not much hope at this point... i really needed for most of my planes to survive. ah well,... easy come, easy go. nice move in the pacific,... but i really gotta pay attention to the sea zones a little better...

Die Flottenmörderin strikes again!

[Cmdr Jennifer]

USA:

Buy(80)
* Minor Complex
* 2 Aircraft Carriers
* 2 Fighters
* 3 Destroyers

NCM: Destroyer to SZ 16, 25

Build: Minor in Korea
Build: 2 Carriers, 2 Fighters, 3 Destroyers in SZ 101

Collect: 53 IPC + 25 NO - 2 CRD SZ 6 = 76 IPC


Chinese Infantry to Kansu

NCM Fighter to Yunan

Collect: 6 IPC + 2 Saved = 8 IPC


England:

Buy(22/20)
* England: 3 Armor, Save 4
* India: 3 Armor, Save 2


Combat Moves:

Fighter from SZ 42 to SZ 41
Fighter from SZ 42 to SZ 43
Infantry from Yunnan to SZE
Infantry from Yunnan to KWE
Infantry from Yunnan to Hun
Infantry from Yunnan to KWA
Infantry, 3 Armor to Tang
Infantry, 3 Armor to Con
4 Inf, 3 Art, Mech, Arm to E. Persia


Combat:

Tang:
Attacker:

Rolls: 1@1 3@3; Total Hits: 0

1@1: (6)3@3: (6, 4, 5)

Defender:

Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 0

1@2: (6)

[Cmdr Jennifer]

Attacker:

Rolls: 1@1 3@3; Total Hits: 1

1@1: (4)3@3: (6, 4, 1)

Defender:

Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 0

1@2: (6)

[Cmdr Jennifer]

Congo

Attacker:

Rolls: 1@1 3@3; Total Hits: 1

1@1: (6)3@3: (6, 3, 6)

Defender:

Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 0

1@2: (5)

[Cmdr Jennifer]

NON Coms on map. (Biggie is the fleet to Celebes SZ)

Build: 3 ARmor in S. Africa, 3 Armor in India

Collect: 20 + 4 Saved, 13 + 2 Saved


Australia:

Buy(19)
Transport, 2 Submarines

Combat Moves:

Infantry, Artillery, Cruiser to Celebes


Combat:

Attacker:

Rolls: 2@2 1@3; Total Hits: 1

2@2: (1, 4)1@3: (4)

Defender:

Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 1

1@2: (2)

[Cmdr Jennifer]

NCM fleet to SZ 44
NCM Destroyer to SZ 17

Build: 2 Submarines, Transport in SZ 62

Collect: 17 TT + 5 NO = 22 IPC


When it comes to the calculators and naval battles, I'll give you a secret.  I subtract 13.4% from what they say the attacker's odds are.  It's not perfect, but it seems to correct for some mathematical issues the writers have when it comes to navy.  I have no idea WHY they are never correct, but they never are correct.  Don't tell EM! 

[Botider]

i usually adjust down about 10%... but it still said it was a 98% win. i know i won, but lost a lot more than anticipated. i don't think the odds were off that far. i suppose the variables with respect to two-hit units plays havoc with the odds, since the calculator really doesn't know the overall strategic situation and cannot predict how a player will choose casualties, e.g., it doesn't know if a player can afford to take hits to CVs, for example, or how far planes have to fly to get to the battle and thus whether they have movement left to land somewhere, etc. all those variables could throw off the calculator. i don't it was wrong for this battle... it was almost a certain win for the japanese. i just took more damage than anticipated, and the dice rolls were clearly the explanation. interesting thoughts, though, doctor. 

[Botider]

you got a map? or did i miss it?

[Botider]

not much hope at this point... i really needed for most of my planes to survive. ah well,... easy come, easy go. nice move in the pacific,... but i really gotta pay attention to the sea zones a little better...

Die Flottenmörderin strikes again!

A well-deserved title!

[Botider]

ok, i reconstructed map from your move, but what i don't have are british non-com moves...