4 sub, 3 dest, 3 carrier, 4 fig SZ89 >> SZ12
1 sub SZ101 >> SZ11
1 trans SZ89 >> SZ10
2 strat wei >> wus
1 fig, 1 tact wus >> haw
2 fig, 2 tact eus >> wus
2 fig cus >> SZ10
2 inf pan load 1 trans SZ64 >> SZ26
1 dest SZ64 >> SZ12
7 inf cus >> wus
Collect 72 (75 total)
I think I have to concede defeat. I believe Japan has the force to take and hold Hawaii and win for Axis. None of Japan's other victory cities could be liberated by the Allies quick enough.
If you would like to play it out to be sure, you can skip to Japan's turn.
But if Japan simply goes all in on SZ26, the US would need to defeat:
7 sub, 4 dest, 1 cru, 1 bsh, 8 carriers, 7 fig, 8 tact
7 sub, 5 dest, 4 carrier, 8 fig, 4 tact, 2 strat
Which is a statistically negligible chance. And that's the best case scenario. Japan could probably make impossible for even an attempted liberation of Honolulu by crushing the US fleet and naval blocking.
Thank you for playing, I learned a great deal.
If you ever want a rematch, let me know.