These figures are based on 10,000 simulations using AACalc (as modified and running at www.campusactivism.org/aacalc
). The IPC figures are all approximate - with an accuracy of around 0.1 to 0.4.
Now of course some of these units aren't worth as much as their IPC cost (German subs) and others are worth more (any land unit in Africa).
If the German transport isn't worth $7 then the attack on EGY is more lucrative. I think the transport is useful and shouldn't be thrown away.
Scenario 1 - no Egypt attack
Z2 (sub, fig, bom vs bat/tra)
IPC gain of 18.3
(11.7 for the loss of bat vs the loss of fig/bom/sub + 6.6 for the loss of the tra)
Z12 (sub, 2 fig vs des, cru)
IPC gain of 8.8
Total IPC gain 27.1
Scenario 2 - Egypt Attack
EGY (assumes 2 inf, art, 2 arm, bom vs 2 inf, art, arm, fig)
I assume that G is willing to take the bomber casualty to take EGY (in practice, I don't think this decision has much of an impact on the IPCs).
IPC gain (for the units, not including taking the bomber casualty) is 5.3
If you take EGY with a bomber and armor or better - you gain 9 (5 NO, 2 for G getting EGY, 2 for UK losing EGY). This is a 60%.
If you take EGY with a single armor, by losing the bom - you gain 2 (5+2+2 - 12 +5 (for the armor)). This is a 15%.
Total value of the attack on EGY
5.3 + 0.6 * 9 + 0.15 * 2=10.9
Z2 (fig, 2 sub vs bat, tra)
IPC gain of 10.4 (loss of bat vs loss of 2 sub, fig) + 5.8 (loss UK tra) = 16.2
Z12 attack (2 fig vs des, cru)
IPC gain of 1.7
Loss of German transport
I assume that UK will only attack the bomber if they cannot attack a single armor on EGY.
-7 * 0.66 = -4.6
Probability UK takes back EGY by attacking it with 2 inf, bom
arm (34% chance G has a single armor - assumes they were willing to sacrifice a bomber) - then UK has a 93% chance of winning
0.34*0.93*-7 (UK gets NO + EGY money)= -2.2
if there is 2 arm left (21% chance) - I assume UK goes for killing the GER transport instead of having a 45% chance of taking EGY.
UK chance of retaking EGY with IND transport (UK: 3 inf, art, bom vs EGY)
Note: UK has a 5% chance of a tra surviving an attack on Z35 (2 fig vs des, tra) and this gives it a great chance of retaking EGY.
ITA gets NO
(0.75 (Germany chance of taking EGY) * 0.58 (ITA chance of taking TRJ with 2 inf, fig, cru/bat vs 2 inf)) - (UK chance of retaking EGY) * 5 =2.2
Scenario 2 total
Conclusion: Who knows! Tentatively the decision looks very close. I've got the non-Egypt attack having a 3 IPC advantage, but there are a lot of factors that I didn't include.