barring favorable rolls how can the axis win?

[TG Moses VI]

Yeah, just don't get Cocky!  

Even with the Navy destroyed, the Allies can rebuild it with relative ease, by the end of T2 they should be up past full strength (the miracles of a good economy).  Don’t do anything unreliable like trying to take Karelia or attacking every possible territory on J1 (believe me, I’ve seen this happen before) it’ll lead to your downfall and further prove the Axis advantage is in the mid-game.  But Africa and East Russia is a sure must, even with one transport the Germans can have up to 8 inf, 1 ARM, and whatever Luftwaffe you chose at the end of G2 (looks like I really didn’t need that 2nd transport after all!), making it more than a match for any US Operation Torch (“combined” UK invasion is pointless).

[DarthMaximus]

Here is the key to Axis victory South Park style:

Phase 1: Set up board
Phase 2:
Phase 3: Axis Win!!!

[EmuGod]

Just think of a bunch of ways to counter allied strategies. So whenever they make a move, you try to counter it.

[TG Moses VI]

The problem is that the strategies of the Axis revolve on a action-based game, not reactive.  You can reactive play with Germany (ie countering the Russian stack, defending WE), but with Japan it's a deathtrap.

[fixitman]

if im playing japan, i often force the americans to come play with me. i take any non-essential forces (usually have some troops and transports to play with by j5 or 6) and go play in alaska or hawaii. ive even gone over and taken brazil (that was a wierd game, had a ��� IC in brazil). your goal is not to actually keep anything, just threaten america. anything america sends at japan is stuff not being sent at the germans. and like mentioned earlier, have the J help G in africa. G takes something, J reinforces it.
 alot of folks dont have the axis powers helping eachother out much, each keeping to its own areas, but i think thats kinda weak. when playing the axis by myself, or with a certain good friend of mine, we usually wind up both powers in africa, and both in asia. this allows having reactive forces available, especially when it comes to pounding the poor brits.

[TG Moses VI]

Yeah, I would suggest taking Hawaii, Alaska, and maybe even WUSA (i've seen this happen).  Disruption tactics are a must when dealing with USA in order to help in a Germans.  What you want to do is frighten the USA in at least keeping a garrison in their home country.  This gives Germans more time to prepare for a possible WE invasion.  If USA doesn't fall for the bait, then congrats, you now have a steady source of income.