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 Author Topic: Odds Calculator for AA50  (Read 1255 times)
gtg21
A&A.org Mechanized Infantry

Posts: 48

 « on: September 28, 2009, 06:20:28 am » 0

First real post here - even though I've been a longtime reader of these boards (and an even longertime player of AA)...

But I can't seem to find an odds calculator for AA50.  Does anyone have a link to a good one?  Apologies if there's already a thread on this somewhere else.

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Gamerman01
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 34035

Rules "Deputy", G40 league mod

 « Reply #1 on: September 28, 2009, 12:09:53 pm » 0

Thanks for posting this, gtg.  I also am interested in one, and am not aware of one yet.  Hopefully a good one exists.
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Bjergmose
A&A.org Tank

Posts: 409

www.Caac.dk

 « Reply #2 on: September 29, 2009, 11:00:18 am » 0

What do you need an odds calculator for?

Are you playing the odds or are you playing the game
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souL
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 10447

 « Reply #3 on: September 29, 2009, 01:29:54 pm » 0

punch/6.  take your total minus enemy units, then do the same for theirs.  Then onto the next round.  Simplistic but it'll give you a basic understanding of who's supposed to win said battle, and how close it's going to be.
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Gamerman01
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 34035

Rules "Deputy", G40 league mod

 « Reply #4 on: September 29, 2009, 01:37:27 pm » 0

I don't like that method at all.  A battle calculator is much more useful.

Using that method, if I attack 2 fighters with 4 men and one bomber, we both have the same attacking power - 8.  The method does not take into account how many units each of you have or what types you have.  The defending fighters' first 4 hits (if they get that many) will each only reduce the attackers' power by 1, while each attacker hit will reduce the defender by 4.
Probable result of this battle would be - round 1 - defender loses a fighter, and possibly both, and attacker loses 1-2 infantry.  Round 2 - defender loses second fighter, attacker loses 0-1 infantry.  Your method would indicate that both sides have a similar chance of wiping the other out.  I agree it can be a decent "rule of thumb" but it can be very misleading.
If you're not going to post where an AA50 battle calculator is, why are you posting here?  Are you just trying to make a point that battle calculators are unnecessary?
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cannon fodder
A&A.org Artillery

Posts: 139

 « Reply #5 on: September 29, 2009, 02:38:55 pm » 0

I googled and found these but not sure how accurate/good it is.

http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html

I usually use the one in Triple A but that means I need to open it and pick the Axis & Allies Anniversary scenario.

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souL
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 10447

 « Reply #6 on: September 29, 2009, 02:56:42 pm » 0

I don't like that method at all.  A battle calculator is much more useful.

Using that method, if I attack 2 fighters with 4 men and one bomber, we both have the same attacking power - 8.  The method does not take into account how many units each of you have or what types you have.  The defending fighters' first 4 hits (if they get that many) will each only reduce the attackers' power by 1, while each attacker hit will reduce the defender by 4.
Probable result of this battle would be - round 1 - defender loses a fighter, and possibly both, and attacker loses 1-2 infantry.  Round 2 - defender loses second fighter, attacker loses 0-1 infantry.  Your method would indicate that both sides have a similar chance of wiping the other out.  I agree it can be a decent "rule of thumb" but it can be very misleading.
If you're not going to post where an AA50 battle calculator is, why are you posting here?  Are you just trying to make a point that battle calculators are unnecessary?

?  Did you not read what I said?  Did you miss the part where I said "take your total of punch/6 and subtract from each side"?

And, if you're going to tell people about "unnecessary posting", why did the 1st response to the thread have to be "thanks for posting this, I want one too."?
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P@nther
A&A.org Battleship

Posts: 3877

I just want to play!

 « Reply #7 on: September 30, 2009, 08:31:48 am » 0

First real post here - even though I've been a longtime reader of these boards (and an even longertime player of AA)...

But I can't seem to find an odds calculator for AA50.  Does anyone have a link to a good one?  Apologies if there's already a thread on this somewhere else.

Try this one:

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=13379.0

HTH
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Gamerman01
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 34035

Rules "Deputy", G40 league mod

 « Reply #8 on: September 30, 2009, 08:54:31 am » 0

Nice!  Thanks, Panther!! +1
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gtg21
A&A.org Mechanized Infantry

Posts: 48

 « Reply #9 on: September 30, 2009, 11:32:35 am » 0

What do you need an odds calculator for?

Are you playing the odds or are you playing the game

Sometimes its nice to know the odds when planning ahead.  Though in this particular instance, I just finished a game where I lost a particular battle that the victor claims was a statistical lock for him to win.   I sincerely doubt it and just wanted to do my own due diligence.

Its always comforting to know it was just a fluke that caused a certain outcome, and not necessarily a strategic flaw.   Though I suppose one could argue a strategy that doesn't account for flukes is probably not so great a strategy!

And many thanks P@nther! Appreciate the link!
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Gamerman01
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 34035

Rules "Deputy", G40 league mod

 « Reply #10 on: September 30, 2009, 11:37:21 am » 0

Sometimes its nice to know the odds when planning ahead.  Though in this particular instance, I just finished a game where I lost a particular battle that the victor claims was a statistical lock for him to win.   I sincerely doubt it and just wanted to do my own due diligence.

Its always comforting to know it was just a fluke that caused a certain outcome, and not necessarily a strategic flaw.
Exactly!!!  Here's your first +1, gtg!
This is a nice calculator.  Not perfect, but nice.  Thanks again Panther!!
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cannon fodder
A&A.org Artillery

Posts: 139

 « Reply #11 on: September 30, 2009, 05:54:06 pm » 0

Nice, small file, easy to use!

Now I know a submarine has a 50%/50% of winning/losing against a cruiser!

First real post here - even though I've been a longtime reader of these boards (and an even longertime player of AA)...

But I can't seem to find an odds calculator for AA50.  Does anyone have a link to a good one?  Apologies if there's already a thread on this somewhere else.

Try this one:

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=13379.0

HTH

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Pin
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 5204

 « Reply #12 on: October 01, 2009, 12:45:49 am » 0

This is the best one imo, just up the number of iteration the calc would do to get a more accurate number(highest number will take some time so give it time ). Also have easy options for land/sea/amphibious attacks, all rules/techs implemented and easy swap of units if you wanna calc how youre fleet fares in defence after first trying it in attack.

http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html

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Gamerman01
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 34035

Rules "Deputy", G40 league mod

 « Reply #13 on: October 01, 2009, 06:40:02 am » 0

Thanks, Pin, but have you looked at the one Panther pointed us to?  I think it's a lot better because it shows the results after a specified number of rounds and gives the probabilities of different results, also keeping track of IPC values.
Unless I'm missing something, the dskelly one only gives overall probability of winning the battle.  Many times, that's not what I want to know.  I want to know how much I'm likely to have left after I win or retreat.
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Gamerman01
A&A.org Heavy Bomber

Posts: 34035

Rules "Deputy", G40 league mod

 « Reply #14 on: October 01, 2009, 06:41:16 am » 0

Panther, you're +46/-0 now because that calculator is nice!  It's already helped me a lot!
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