Egypt SZ 12 and the Med

[tin_snips]

they collect more income than the axis at the start, do they not? if the allies can keep this advantage long enough, or play to get it back, then they win through attrition

i'm speaking from experience, with NO's as well. germany didn't push through russia's defence in time, and uk and usa landed reinforcement in russia. japan pushed into russia and was stopped by these reinforcement as well, and due to the fact that the usa built a substantial fleet to hound japan with

[Funcioneta]

they collect more income than the axis at the start, do they not? if the allies can keep this advantage long enough, or play to get it back, then they win through attrition

Allies have a hard time even conserving the economic parity and they can do only if they fight Japan. Allies have economic advantage the first two rounds, but then axis can have advantage or at least parity.

[DarthMaximus]

But it is still cheaper to defend, so you don't really need parity if you are playing defense.  Also the Axis have much more land to protect, pretty much all of Northern Europe (WE, Ger, Pol) and of course Southern Europe (Ita and Balk).  There will be a gap somewhere for the Allies to exploit with Inf only and maybe planes or bombardment shots.  Then it just becomes a matter of keeping Mos which can usually be done (previous versions) with Russian units and Allied planes or armor coming in from Kar.

The Axis also have a Factory production cap that must be addressed, at the start:
 
Germany - 10
Italy - 6
Japan - 8

Total = 24

Russia - 12
UK - 8
US - 20 (it is 20 right?)

Total = 40

Even if Ger takes Kar it is still a 38 to 26 Allied Adv.  In order for Japan to make use of its income it really needs 2 ICs, that is 30 ipc not spent on units and still only gets you to 32-33 (depending on location and if Ger takes Kar) units able to be placed.  Now the US doesn't really place 20 units per turn, but they can still either support Europe 10-12 units per turn or try to tie up Japan with ships.

Also by round 3, 4, or 5 Kar becomes very difficult for Ger to hold since UK can directly drop 8 units there per turn if needed.

This assumes No Tech.

[LT04]

I think to be fair you also need to add the value of the starting units.

For example if Germany only started with 1 IPC worth of spaces and the Allies started with 100 IPC's worth would that matter if Germany had 1,000 IPC of starting units and the allies had 100?

(This example was embelished for effect  )

LT

[DarthMaximus]

True.
I don't have Abattlemap infront of me, but does anyone have the starting IPC values for the units of each country?

[Alair]

Germany
Land 171
Naval 44

USSR
Land 142
Naval 6

Japan
Land 163
Naval 106

England
Land 142
Naval 100

Italy
Land 45
Naval 51

USA 107
Naval 87

China - 22 Land

These numbers are misleading though because of Japanese ACs.  There are 6 fighters on there so take off 60 from Land and add 60 to Japanese Naval...

That gives them 213.  That's why Japan's such a beast.  With the USA having 1 loaded AC.... really that means that Japan has just as much as England and the USA combined?  That seems way out of whack.  Especially given they have the initiative and doesn't get separately destroyed like England.

[LT04]

I would have to say from the starting units that:

Allies start with:
606 total
413 Land
193 Sea

Axis start with:
580 total
379 Land
201 Sea

Also please note that air units are counted as land units.

The Axis start with a navel advantage.  Half of the fight for the allies in classic, revised and now AA50 has been getting into the war.

I guess if you wanted a true way to tell who has the upper hand you would need to break down units by theater.

Europe

Med / Africa

Asia

Pacific.

You would have to mesh same sided units.

LT

[DarthMaximus]

Thanks guys.

The numbers look fairly even to me.  I don't think there is much of a question that the Axis start out with the ability to do a ton of damage in rd 1 and can realy put a dent into the Allies.  Germany can smash multiple Russian territories with Russia being limited in countering and Japan can really go crazy.  So I think that the Axis need to severly outnumber them in terms of IPC and do so for several turns.  Remember the supply lines for Japan (to Moscow) have been extended.  I don't think an Allied deficit of 10-15 ipc per turn is that bad (maybe Axis 120, Allies 105), however, if you get into the 20-30 range for multiple turns then it is bad news.  Anything under 10 can be potentially be written off by dice (ie when one lone inf hits on def, or maybe 2 inf hit out of 3-4, bom shot down due to aa, etc).

So I still think that for the most part the longer the game goes the better it is for the Allies.

I think one of the biggest factors is how quickly can the Allies kill the Italian fleet.  If you get it by round 3 or 4 you are in good shape, anything after that and you might be pressing your luck.