Egypt SZ 12 and the Med

[rockrobinoff]

Most or many players will have noticed that the Italian Fleet is vulnerable to the UK on turn 1 if both the UK fighter in  Egypt, and the destroyer+cruiser combo in SZ 12, live.

A UK bomber+fighter+cruiser+destroyer versus an Italian battleship+2 cruisers is about a 55% UK win  (netting a transport as well) and 65% to kill just the warships. I think most would agree if the Italian navy goes, its pretty much game over, as a full tilt KIF strat will succeed.

The German attack on Egypt is maxed at 3inf+2tanks+1art+1bomber versus 2inf+tank+art+ftr
which is about a 75% win for the attacker (a draw, around 80%, does the job as well, but if the final round of combat came down to bomber versus fighter, and the bomber missed and the fighter hit, it might be time for the Germans to call it a day...)

The attack on SZ 12 is 80% to win for the Germans, sending in 2subs and a fighter - though they could do this light (sub+ftr or two subs), given that it is only absolutely necessary to kill the destroyer.

So, given that it is a must that the Germans secure the Italian navy, the German player must a) attack egypt b) attack sz12 or c) both

If b or c, then then one obvious cost is not sinking the British battleship+trans, which is both slightly easier to kill than the dest+cruiser, and also a bigger prize.

The only problem with option a is that it fails 25% of the time. Not a brilliant prospect, especially if you are better than your opponent, and hope to grind out a long and sure win.

The problem with b is ignoring Egypt. The multitude of consequences other than leaving the Italians vulnerable, is more than obvious I would think.

To my mind, c is the only answer.

[axis_roll]

I find that Germany has many options G1 in 1941.
While I have yet to play, I have read many posts here about what Germany should do G1.

Very interesting.

Your observation brings some good discussions to the board.

I do believe that strategic discussions should list wether N.O.s are active or not (as they couls influence strategic decisions.

[Nix]

Personally i beliave this ganme is best played with N.o´s possiable tech to but i would understand why we would do without them.   But N.O´s are cool.

[KGB]

So, given that it is a must that the Germans secure the Italian navy, the German player must a) attack egypt b) attack sz12 or c) both

If b or c, then then one obvious cost is not sinking the British battleship+trans, which is both slightly easier to kill than the dest+cruiser, and also a bigger prize.

You can do all three. What I did in my game against DM was:

sz 2: sub (sz 7) + fig (Nwy) + bomber
sz 12: sub (sz 7) + fig (France) + fig (Ger)
Egy: inf, tank (France) + African units

This leaves Egypt a little light (just under 50% to kill the UK fig probably), but you can quite reliably clear out almost all of the UK ships. I don't think it's worth it to bypass sz2 only to slightly increase your odds in Egypt or sz 12.

[rockrobinoff]

sz 2: sub (sz 7) + fig (Nwy) + bomber
sz 12: sub (sz 7) + fig (France) + fig (Ger)
Egy: inf, tank (France) + African units

This leaves Egypt a little light (just under 50% to kill the UK fig probably), but you can quite reliably clear out almost all of the UK ships. I don't think it's worth it to bypass sz2 only to slightly increase your odds in Egypt or sz 12.

They Egypt attack without the bomber is a bit under 40% to draw, and about 33% to win. Pretty ugly if you ask me.

[KGB]

Well, I never said you could have it all.. What do you think is better, having those extra Egypt odds or killing those British ships? Suppose you could also send sub, fig to sz 2, though that is riskier than not having the bomber in Egypt (and you don't kill the trn if it's a draw).

[rockrobinoff]

Well, I never said you could have it all.. What do you think is better, having those extra Egypt odds or killing those British ships? Suppose you could also send sub, fig to sz 2, though that is riskier than not having the bomber in Egypt (and you don't kill the trn if it's a draw).

I think Egypt light is a disaster. Sub + Ftr to SZ 2 is about 40%.

What if you lose both? That's probably game...

[rockrobinoff]

I do believe that strategic discussions should list wether N.O.s are active or not (as they couls influence strategic decisions.

Sure, whether tech on or off is important as well. That said, I don't think whether N.O. on or off effects whether you need to protect the Italian navy.

[KGB]

Is it really a disaster if you lose in Egypt? The tradeoff (if you lose, whereas there's 40% of a draw or better) is losing a German trn and, say, 2 German ground units, versus killing a UK BB and transport.. Seems worth it to me.

[rockrobinoff]

Is it really a disaster if you lose in Egypt? The tradeoff (if you lose, whereas there's 40% of a draw or better) is losing a German trn and, say, 2 German ground units, versus killing a UK BB and transport.. Seems worth it to me.

Why "say" losing two ground units? Winning Egypt light, barring very excellent dice, means surviving with one unit, or drawing. Losing four or five units. All of that happening no better than 40% of the time. Very dodgy battle.

[KGB]

I mean losing 2 ground units more than when you send the bomber to Egypt.. We're comparing sending the bomber to Egypt & skipping sz 2 to using ground units only in Egypt and sending the bomber to sz2.

[rockrobinoff]

Right. I have to admit, reducing UK to only a fighter/occasionally winning the battle, plus sinking all of the UK boats, might be best.

[Alair]

I'd never put the game on bad odds.  Fight the battles on bad odds you can afford to lose, and make sure you win the battles you need to win.

If you'll lose the game if you attack and lose the battle... I wouldn't fight it, if you'd lose the game and have bad odds, that's just silly.

[Woodstock]

I´d go for all three aswell.

So what if you lose against the Brits in Egypt light ?
You will at least have softened it up for the Italians to take, you have reduced possible defense units that would otherwise run to India, and the Egyptian IPC in Italian hands might be better then when they are in German´s.

Add the fact that during that exercition, you will have reduced the Royal Navy aswell.

So, in short, even if Egypt light turns out bad, you still have a win/win situation.

[Alair]

Looks like I'm the Montgomery of the forum

Well, the way I always play the Axis is I think of the game in terms of keeping my initial production.  There are some things where if you lose them, you can't afford to rebuild them.  I would include most of the German airforce like this.

So really, if you lose a ton of production points worth of materials to gain a short term advantage ... what have you really gained?

The allies can afford to throw away production since they're so rich at the beginning, so they can throw stuff away to slow the advance, I don't think throwing away production will work against a good allies opponents.

When I played I took my German units out of Africa and just tried to hold England with Italian troops.  Then I focused on blowing the English navy out of the waters... if England keeps it's fleet and can attack all along the coast, I think it's over for Germany.  Africa, you can lose it and still win the game so it worked for me.  I haven't played enough to comment on whether this will always work though, we'll see.